Posts Tagged ‘JGB’

Notes From Underground: Things That Need To Be Watched

July 14, 2016

As I ponder things in the 118 degree heat, it is time for some reflection and perspective:

a. The Bank of England performed beautifully today and took a breath before cutting rates further and/or increasing the BOE’s balance sheet. Now that Prime Minister MAY‘s cabinet is devoid of the idiot George Osborne, it behooved BOE Governor Carney to wait and see if fiscal policy would be the stimulative tool of choice and preserve the monetary policy for future use. I had advised my employers that Carney would be reticent to act because he is a cautious man and his recent plunge into the political realm in cahoots with George Osborne had sullied his reputation. It seems that Carney wants to remove himself from center stage and allow the new cabinet to have a say in just how to provide any stimulus in response to the dire forecasts from the BREXIT outcome.

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Notes From Underground: All Quiet On the Western Front (From a News Perspective)

May 19, 2013

There were no real market-moving news stories this past week, but that didn’t stop the precious metals from coming under severe pressure on the Asian opening as prices in gold and, especially silver, fell prey to liquidation and downside stops were elected in a relatively illiquid market environment. The DOLLAR/YEN was also under initial pressure as Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari was on the Sunday morning Japanese news show saying, “the correction of the strong yen is largely completed.” Mr. Amari was voicing concerns about further rapid yen depreciation could negatively impact Japanese consumers. The selloff in DOLLAR/YEN seems to be rather tepid based on the massive LONG DOLLAR/YEN POSITIONS, but this bares watching when Europe and the U.S. markets open. More importantly, the initial price action in the Nikkei equity market doesn’t seem to be very concerned about the comments of Mr. Amari.

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Notes From Underground: The Yen Will Not Be the Sacrificial Lamb

September 19, 2012

And by the end of trading the YEN had reversed its initial weakness and wound up stronger–the 24-hour trading range was 79.20-78.25, with the settlement at 4:00 p.m. CST, 78.37. It seems that the market will not allow the BOJ (Bank of Japan) to do less than the ECB or the FED. BOJ Governor Shirakawa raised the asset purchase program to 80 trillion YEN from 70 trillion and removed its 0.1% bidding floor for Japanese Bonds (JGB). It is now possible that the BANK will go to negative bids on its JGB buying program so the move was aggressive for what has been a very conservative policy-oriented institution. Even Japanese FINANCE MINISTER Jun Azumi said, “The BOJ took more action than we anticipated.” And again although the YEN weakened on the initial news, by day’s end it reversed and closed strong. Mama, don’t let your children grow up to be currency traders.

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Notes From Underground: U.S. Treasuries, A Fixed Market That Is Badly Broken

January 10, 2012

One of the most important elements to the purpose of the financial markets is to be an indicator of flawed policy. If money is too loose, the BOND VIGILANTES will assure policy makers that it is time to tighten by pressuring BOND YIELDS higher. As Bill Clinton’s attack dogJames Carville so elegantly stated: “I want to be reincarnated as the bond market because it intimidates everyone.” The huge FED QE PROGRAM has temporarily castrated the BOND market as FED INTERVENTION means that the BOND VIGILANTES lack the fortitude to signal the markets. Even the EUROPEANS have momentarily silenced the market by the huge liquidity pump via the LTRO program with another LTRO coming at the end of February.

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Notes From Underground: No Surprises This Monday

November 28, 2011

Even as the rumors of a massive IMF intervention to support Italy faded into the New York close the equity were buoyed by the robust start to the HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON. Increased sales and no bad news from Europe left the risk on (deleveraging halted) for at least another day. The 2/10 Italian curve aided the rally as the curve MOVED 50 BASIS POINTS AND CLAWED BACK TO A POSITIVE SLOPE. IN YESTERDAY’S BLOG IT WAS NOTED THAT THE 2/10 CURVES OF THE SPANISH AND ITALIAN DEBT MARKETS WERE NOW AN IMPORTANT INDICATOR OF DEBT STRESS AND FEARS FOR THE ECONOMIES OF THOSE ON THE PRECIPICE OF CRISIS.

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 15, 2011

TO OUR READERS: WE’RE REISSUING LAST NIGHT’S PIECE AS MANY OF YOU DID NOT RECEIVE THE POST BECAUSE OF A WORDPRESS GLITCH. ENJOY!

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: SPANISH MISSTEPS TRIP UP ITALIAN DEBT

November 14, 2011

The DEBT markets in Europe renewed the sombre tone of a collapse of Italy and Spain. In the early part of the European trading day, the Italian BTP was holding on to last week’s gains and outperforming the BUNDS to the upside. As the day wound to a close, the “negative” news out of the Merkel’s CDU conference pressured the DEBT markets as new fears arose that the German Chancellor had her party’s support for the jettisoning of some of the weaker peripherals.

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Notes From Underground: A Very Slow news Weekend Unless You Are in the Middle East

April 24, 2011

The markets have been given a modicum of quiet as all ears turn  to this week’s FOMC meeting. It seems that the FOMC release will be at 11:30 a.m. CST, which is an hour and forty-five minutes earlier than usual and the Bernanke meeting with the press will begin at 1:15 p.m. CST. A great deal of importance is being place on this historic first press conference. Much is also being made about the end of QE2 but I am not one of those looking for wild action when the FED stops buying Treasury debt. It seems that the FED may not announce “new” purchases but it doesn’t mean that they won’t be rolling over expiring issues and purchasing other debt in the market with the rolled over money.

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Notes From Underground: CNBC-Market’s Disaster Response

March 16, 2011

Click on image to watch Yra on CNBC.

Notes From Underground: The Land of the Rising Sun needs to Raise More Sons

January 27, 2011

The most significant financial news today was the downgrade of Japanese debt by the ever “prescient” S&P group. It seems that after all these years of government spending and the huge negative impact of deflation on government revenues, the rating agency finally found the fortitude to tall investors that Japanese debt is in need of rebalancing. The markets sold the YEN on the news but the JGBs barely moved and the Nikkei actually rallied a touch, although it is down more than one percent tonight. It must be remembered that the Japanese Debt is 97 percent held by domestic investors so the international impact is not immediately felt like in the Greek and Irish situation.

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