Posts Tagged ‘Libya’

Notes From Underground: Merkel set to stand firm in the face of an electoral setback

March 28, 2011

Chancellor Merkel has said that there will be no shake-up in the ruling coalition even as the CDU/FDP suffered at the voting booth as the German electors have grown tired of the vacillating vixen of Berlin. The German chancellor has wavered on EU BAILOUTS, NUCLEAR ENERGY and even deserted her allies in its ill-conceieved intervention in Libya. So a leader who has not stood fast nor firm is telling Germany that after the election defeat she will stand firm. Now we all ought to be nervous. I hope that Germany will be firmer in honoring its committments to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) than Merkel has been to adhering to some form of political principles.

Also, it was interesting that President Obama declared victory in the Libyan campaign and handed over control of the operations to NATO. Is France a member of NATO this week? The U.S. and its allies have entered a dangerous period in its intervention in LIBYA. As I wrote just after the Egyptian rebellion, the real game changer will be Syria. The Assad Regime has severely suppressed the incipient demonstrations as expected. Secretary of State Clinton was asked if the U.S. and its allies would intervene to halt the slaughter of Syrians–as it claimed to be doing in Libya–Madam Secretary stated that Syria was not Libya because Bashar Assad had promised visiting U.S. legislators that he was bent on reform. Therefore, the reform-minded Syrian president is not a candidate for the military reprisals.

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Notes From Underground: Franco/German spat ahead of this week’s SUMMIT of LOVE

March 23, 2011

This Thursday and Friday the European Union had hoped to put the finishing touches on the European Stability Mechanism that will go into effect in 2013. The Sarkozy/Merkel-crafted plan would give succor to Chancellor Merkel ahead of this Sunday’s elections in Baden-Wurttemberg and hopefully halt the German voters’ antipathy toward all things EU. However, there appears to be friction between the giants of the European Union. Sarkozy is reportedly furious at the Germans for abstaining on the UN vote to impose a no-fly zone in Libya. Also, the French believe that Frau Merkel played politics and an anti-French card by moving to halt electricity production at seven NUCLEAR POWER plants, thus making the French look bad as well as having the impact of driving up electricity prices.

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Notes From Underground: CNBC-Movement in the Markets

March 22, 2011

Click on the image to watch Yra on CNBC Tuesday morning.

Notes From Underground: Last Week Was The Year That Was

March 20, 2011

This weekend brought mixed news about the lessening of RISK in Japan, and possibly Bahrain, while increasing the sense of risk in Libya and other parts of the Middle East. It appears that the threat of nuclear catastrophe has been diminished as some power has been restored to the nuclear plants under stress and the needed cooling is proceeding. The Japanese equity market will be a good source to monitor investor sentiment as weekend news publications were filled with articles about the values abound in the Nikkei and other Japan-based indexes. The YEN will be a much more difficult barometer because of the impact of YEAR END and its ability to cause disruptive volatility in currency markets.

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Notes From Underground: Irish Elections, Bahrain and the U.S. DOLLAR fails to RALLY

February 24, 2011

All eyes have been focused on the MIDDLE EAST for its huge impact on OIL prices. There is a debate between those who believe that the OIL supply disruption is inflationary as energy prices create a rising price environment and those who believe that high energy prices are a tremendous drag on economic growth. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is in the camp that OIL supply disruptions are a drag on growth, especially in an environment of high unemployment and a severely stretched consumer. It is this fear that has roiled the stock market in the U.S. and put stress upon the global financial system. Emerging markets that are already feeling the impact of higher food costs will now have to deal with higher energy prices, which many governments already subsidize for its citizens. Will the situation in Bahrain be as economic disastrous as some analysts and pundits are claiming?

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