Posts Tagged ‘Liquidity exuberance’

Notes From Underground: How Do Markets Test the FED?

June 23, 2014

In following up on the theme of the last three blog posts, it’s always a question how ┬ámarkets test central bank policies. As is frequently mentioned, when investors fear that central banks will err on the side of LIQUIDITY EXUBERANCE precious metals and hard assets are bought in efforts to prevent the POSSIBLE EROSION of asset values. In times when the market perceives the FED to be ahead of the inflation curve, investors buy long-term bonds and lock up higher rates in a belief that an aggressive Fed will successfully slow the economy. Thus, locking up high rates now will generate a higher real yield as the economy begins to slow, resulting in a flattening of the yield curves. When the Fed is deemed to be behind the curve, investors sell long-dated debt in belief that the FED will at some point have to aggressively raise rates to stem incipient inflation, resulting in a steepening yield curve.

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