Posts Tagged ‘Loonie’

Notes From Underground: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow

January 19, 2021

Say goodbye to Daddy Warbucks Say hello to Uncle Joe.

On Monday we got a preview of the Biden Administration as Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen appeared before the Senate Finance Committee. It was sad that her testimony was released over the weekend. There were the stock answers to the issue of the U.S. dollar, which falls under the auspices of the Treasury Department. Yellen proclaimed that the markets would set the value of the DOLLAR and that it would not be the policy of the Biden Administration to manipulate the currency to attain some illusionary trade advantage.

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Notes From Underground: Woody Hayes’ Advice to Mario Draghi

September 4, 2019

Football season in the U.S. is just beginning. That said, it would be appropriate for President Mario Draghi to refrain from any type of new QE program or cut in interest rates at next week’s meeting. There have been several comments from ECB members during the past week advising against more QE or additional interest rate cuts.

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Notes From Underground: “And all My Words Come Back To Me In Shades of Mediocrity” (Paul Simon)

December 3, 2013

This reference is to Janet Yellen’s testimony in her Senate confirmation hearing as the chairman-to-be cited the benefits of the Fed’s policy of über low rates for the average household. While many Senators challenged the negative effects of the Fed’s policy for savers–financial repression in the words of Carmen Reinhart–Yellen noted that people were not just savers but also consumers. Thus, Fed policy may harm the return on savings, but households may receive the benefit of lower home and auto loans and the Fed’s QE policy may have had the ripple effects of getting their college graduate a job. So financial repression was a very difficult outcome to measure against the broad economic outcomes.

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Notes From Underground: Today Was International Central Bank Day (Very Little to Celebrate)

March 8, 2012

First with a hat tip to RF for e-mailing the JOKE of the DAY:

Overheard in the Athens Airport:

Greek Immigration Official:Nationality?

Tourist: German

Greek Immigration Official: Occupation?

Tourist: No. Just On Holiday

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Notes From Underground: Is the Euro the New Funding Currency For the Carry Trade?

January 5, 2012

For many years the carry trade has been the mainstay of the RISK-ON profile. For some periods the ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY of Japan forced money out of its system and in search of high-yield currencies in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and other attractive venues. One of the best carry trades ever was LONG BRAZILIAN REAL/SHORT YEN as investors could fund the trade by borrowing YEN at very low rates and placing it in high yielding Brazilian bank accounts. As the Brazilian currency attained status as a commodity currency and, thus, a proxy for the China growth story, the BRAZILIAN REAL soared and the carry trade was a major win/win. When the U.S. FED went to an extreme low interest rate, the U.S. DOLLAR became a funding currency as the U.S. became a much less attractive place for global capital flows.

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Notes From Underground: “Everybody’s Talking At Me I Can’t Hear A Word They’re Saying…”

December 1, 2011

It was a day of dueling flapjawing as the European elite was out talking about everything that needs to be done to save the EURO and Sarkozy promising that there would not be any European defaults. Again to paraphrase Jimmy Breslin: Sarkozy is a little man in search of a balcony. The time for public orations is past and the call to action is immediate and real. Global investors don’t want any more rhetoric. Next Friday is considered the day of reckoning but if the EUROCRATS have any sense all the needed policy will have been put in place by the December 9th meeting so that the markets will have absorbed the “shock and awe” and there will be no disappointment.

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Notes From Underground: The CHINESE ARE THE RUMOR DE JOUR TO BUY EFSF DEBT

October 26, 2011

(AN HOUR LATER THE MARKETS WILL BE HUNGRY FOR MORE RUMORS)

Another day and another round of rumors. As the financial markets awaited the EU LEADERS’ statement, the rumor of China agreeing to buy European SOVEREIGN DEBT and EFSF paper provided a boost to a falling EURO and a BID TO the U.S. EQUITY MARKETS. It seems that the market wants to BELIEVE that the Chinese are going to ride to the rescue of the EU and provide the backstop that the Germans are so reticent to bankroll.

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Notes From Underground: They Loaded 275 Billion Pounds and What Did They Get?

October 6, 2011

(Another day older and deeper in debt.)

No surprises from the ECB as they held rates at 1.5% as Trichet ended his reign at the helm of European banking by paying homage to the FONZ: Never admit that you were wrong. The ECB did announce that it was extending its policy of providing liquidity to EUROZONE banks at extremely low rates for a period of 12 and 13 months in an effort to prevent any immediate bank run. Also, the ECB announced that it would buy up to 40 billion euro of covered bonds, but that should not be a big deal for covered bonds are the best collateral so many banks will probably not be running for funding posting the highest rated debt.

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Notes From Underground: Did I miss anything while I was away???

September 7, 2011

The unemployment report on Friday was much weaker than expected as zero net jobs were created. More disheartening was that average hourly earnings produced a negative number, which failed to confirm and support the earlier released personal consumption data. The equity markets went into risk-off mode as the economy went into the Labor Day weekend in a very fragile state.

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Notes From Underground: From the Eve Of Destruction to Days of Exhaustion

August 11, 2011

Yesterday the screen watching and the trading became so exhaustive that my eyes glazed over and all of the quote boxes began melting together as if Salvador Dali was painting what I was analyzing and trading. Trading fatigue has definitely set in as the world moves from crisis to crisis and back again. The amount of news that gathers on my screen every hour reminds me of being back in graduate school, except that the tension now and the speed at which it arises overwhelms the mind. Not complaining as this is the way I have chosen to make my living.

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