First, the news on the coronavirus continues to be buffeted by media outlets’ urge to be the first to report. The need for speed creates a rash of questionable stories that later get retracted or certainly get less sensational when context is added. When trading around this, I urge caution as opportunity knocks for those traders who can remain patient. There seems to be scientific interest in the failure of the VIRUS to have impacted children. While it is in the early stages of a potential pandemic, according to my source on all things infectious diseases, it is an outcome to watch in an effort to measure the potential impact.
Posts Tagged ‘Mexican peso’
Notes From Underground: Do You Hear What I Hear?
February 16, 2020Notes From Underground: Let’s Not Mince Words, Pepper Spray Davos
January 20, 2019Let me begin by reiterating that this is NOT a political blog but a place for the exchange of ideas dedicated to those who desire to improve trading and investing in order to increase profits. My STRENGTH is bringing an in-depth knowledge of political economy and 40-plus years of trading my own funds (while also managing other people’s money via hedge funds).
My personal political views OUGHT not to be relevant for when it comes to generating ideas. I adhere to the wisdom of Deng Xiaoping: “I don’t care if the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice.” While I might criticize certain persons in any political administration it is merely to criticize actions as a way of comprehending policy outcomes. (For example, my disdain for Steven Mnuchin is solely based on what I deem to be his incompetence, a similar contempt that I held for Tim Geithner.)
Notes From Underground: The Second Quarter Begins (the Resurrection of Volatility)
April 1, 2018On March 26, me and Rick Santelli Rick Santelli discussed a few key issues on CNBC (the video is posted below). The final week of the first quarter saw the continuation of increased volatility as the market tried to sort through myriad issues. The influence of budget deficits, peace talks with North Korea, trade issues in the U.S. all creating a sense of uncertainty as global investors are forced to calibrate present positions in regards to regards to potential risk. Chinese growth is meeting expectations even as the XI regime is determined to clamp down on increased debt. The copper market tested the 200-day moving average early in the week but managed to close above it at week’s (even as the metal had a weak quarter).
(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global trade.)
Notes From Underground: Ball of Confusion
March 5, 2018Segregation, determination, demonstration, integration, aggravation,
humiliation, obligation to our nation
Ball of Confusion that’s what the world is today [yeah, yeah]
The sale of pills is at an all time high
young folks walkin’ ’round with their heads in the sky
Cities aflame in the summer time, oh the beat goes on
Eve of destruction tax deduction
City inspectors, bill collectors,
Evolution, revolution, gun control, the sound of soul,
Shootin’ rockets to the moon,kids growin’ up too soon
Politicians say more taxes will solve ev’rything, and the band played on.
Notes From Underground: Quackser Fortune + Horse Manure
December 26, 2017In the famous Gene Wilder movie, “Quackser Fortune and His Cousin In the Bronx,” Wilder plays a character who picks up horse manure in the street and sells it for its rich nutrients. As horses are outlawed in the Dublin streets Quackser finds himself an unemployed manure sweeper, a negative outcome from Schumpeterian creative destruction. However, it seems Quackser resurrected his business and is now packaging horse excrement as an item of political discourse. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was the recipient of the newest symbol of public disdain for the recent tax “reform.”
Notes From Underground: The Second Quarter Begins
April 2, 2017First, let me apologize to my readers. I erred when I said Marine Le Pen made it to the second round of the 2012 French presidential election. Reader Al 13 corrected me. It was her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who made it to the second round in 2002 and got trounced, garnering 18% of the vote to Jacque Chirac’s 82%. But read Al 13’s comment on the previous post because he notes that if the second round were to be a choice between Le Pen and one of the two far-left candidates–Melenchon or Hamon–the impact would be highly volatile for European markets.
Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast
January 29, 2017Tonight I am posting the latest episode from the Financial Repression Authority (click on the blue link to listen). I do these for no remuneration as I think the information flowing out of this group creates great conversation and can generate some very profitable investment opportunities. Yes, it’s 34 minutes long but it is more LEARNATIVE than the network news. So pour a stiff whisky and listen while doing other reading. I share this with, you readers because I am honored to be a part of this great dialectical process. One of the key points in tonight’s post is the development of a narrative in which to analyze the world of Trump. It is not a partisan narrative but one I am developing as I attempt to discern the unfolding global dialogue being put forward by Team Trump.
Notes From Underground: Forward Guidance Takes a Step Backward
October 22, 2013Today the markets received the long-awaited data on the U.S. job situation and the major beneficiary seemed to be the HFT algorithms that had the number two seconds early. The stock indices, currencies and precious metals all reversed early movements and rallied just prior to the public release. Setting aside the trading action, the data continues to reflect a very tepid recovery. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 148,000 making the FED’s September 18 decision look credible. More important, the average hourly earnings grew less than expected and kept the pace of wage growth very anemic. The FED has communicated that it is the jobs rate that the markets should be mindful of when anticipating any future action to raise rates. The FED has told the markets that an UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL of 7.0% or maybe 6.5% will be a threshold target that could prompt the FED into action.
Notes From Underground: This Market Is a Tribute to Rudyard Kipling’s “IF”
June 25, 2013“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you”
The opening stanza of Kipling’s poem about British stoutness is not to say others are blaming but rather an admonition from Notes From Underground about keeping your wits about you and trying to make quality decisions in trying times. In a financial world that is steeped in excess leverage, nanoseconds and algorithmic trading programs ,being a fundamental/technical trader seeking relative value becomes a daunting task. I am not one who favors catching “falling pianos” and have been more content to let trades come to make rather than force the action. As the markets unwind leveraged trades that causes massive selling across all asset classes.
Notes From Underground: Friday Is the All-Important U.S. Employment Data, But Why Was European Employment Glossed Over?
March 7, 2013The February jobs data has been compiled and is now ready for public consumption. The consensus is for 165,000 (revised upward from 160,000) nonfarm payroll jobs being added and the rate to hold steady at 7.9%. This may be a difficult number to trade because the equity markets have already sloughed off so much negative news to keep the rally in tact–Italian elections, sequestration and economic malaise throughout Europe. The weekly jobless claims numbers have surprised on the downside during the last few weeks so a 200,000 NFP number would not be a surprise. It will be more important to watch average hourly earnings and the length of the work week–earnings are expected to be up by 0.2% per hour.