In a comment directed toward the European peripherals, Pimco’s Bill Gross said that Greece was a zit, Portugal a boil, and Spain a tumor. Readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND know that Spain has been on the radar for a long time. The growth numbers or lack of growth, rather, hampered by severe austerity budgets have generated ADVERSE FEEDBACK LOOPS that have rendered all economic projections null and void. When austerity bites, all growth forecasts are cast asunder. Staying with Gross’s almost biblical references, I suggest looking at Europe though the lens of the TEN PLAGUES.
Posts Tagged ‘NFP’
Note From Underground: Mr. Bernanke Meets the House Budgeteers
February 2, 2012Sound bites from the left. Sound bites to the right; here I am, stuck in the middle with you (STEALERS WHEEL). The House Budget Committee was in full political regalia as posturing for the home folks and November’s election was in full force. Most of the questions are redundant or ridiculous and in some cases, both. An exception was Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, who asked Mr.Bernanke if the FED‘s policies had corrupted the BOND markets that they stopped sending a credible signal. It has been a consistent theme of NOTES that the BOND market is broken as an indicator of inflation expectations because the FED‘s large scale asset program has created an artificial support to LONG-TERM BOND PRICES.
Notes From Underground: Brazil Shaves Their Rates Unexpectedly
September 1, 2011First of all, NOTES will be on HIATUS for a well deserved rest from the turmoil of global events and the chaotic impact they have had on markets.
Notes From Underground: The financial markets buy what Trichet is selling
March 3, 2011First things first: Tomorrow is unemployment data day and this report will not be preceded by the CANADIAN release as our northern neighbors need an extra week to compile the data as February is a shortened month. The jobless claims and Thursday’s ADP data is driving up the non-farm payroll number from an early consensus of 175,000 to a whisper number above 250,000.
Notes From Underground: The Unemployment Data (A Tale of Two Numbers)
February 6, 2011As all the media reported, the U.S. unemployment numbers clouded and befuddled the markets as the non-farm payroll (NFP) was much lower than expected, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 9.o percent to 9.4 percent. This is the second consecutive month that the headline unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percent. However, both reporting periods showed very anemic JOBS GROWTH. Ben Bernanke and other FED officials have said it would take jobs growth of more than 200,000 a month to begin to bring the rate down. Even though the rate dropped 0.4 percent on a NFP number of 36,000-plus, it raises more questions than answers. (more…)
Notes From Underground: MIlton Friedman was wrong about free lunch–Ben Bernanke had it at the National Press Club
February 3, 2011Today, the main story was the address that Chairman Bernanke delivered to the National Press Club as his topic was the, “The Economic Outlook and Macroeconomic Policy.” The FED Chairman’s speech was a “redo” of Mervyn King’s speech 10 days ago. It seems that the FED is adhering to the same view as the BOE, in that the FED will stay the course on QE and its present monetary policy. Inflation is not a problem even though some highly visible price increases have taken place in some commodities but that is due to the growing demand from the emerging economies. Core inflation was “only 0.7 percent in 2010” and wage growth is non-existent, so there is no worry on the inflation front.
Notes From Underground: OOPS, got it way wrong on the JOBLESS CLAIMS
December 2, 2010Well, my guesstimate on jobless claims was way off as the previous number was not supported by further improvement. The consensus was 425,000 and the number actually reported was 436,000, well above what I anticiapted and hoped would be a three handle.