Posts Tagged ‘NFP’

Notes From Underground: Bill Gross Goes Biblical … Sort Of

April 5, 2012

In a comment directed toward the European peripherals, Pimco’s Bill Gross said that Greece was a zit, Portugal a boil, and Spain a tumor. Readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND know that Spain has been on the radar for a long time. The growth numbers or lack of growth, rather, hampered by severe austerity budgets have generated ADVERSE FEEDBACK LOOPS that have rendered all economic projections null and void. When austerity bites, all growth forecasts are cast asunder. Staying with Gross’s almost biblical references, I suggest looking at Europe though the lens of the TEN PLAGUES.


Note From Underground: Mr. Bernanke Meets the House Budgeteers

February 2, 2012

Sound bites from the left. Sound bites to the right; here I am, stuck in the middle with you (STEALERS WHEEL). The House Budget Committee was in full political regalia as posturing  for the home folks and November’s election was in full force. Most of the questions are redundant or ridiculous and in some cases, both. An exception was Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, who asked Mr.Bernanke if the FED‘s policies had corrupted the BOND markets that they stopped sending a credible signal. It has been a consistent theme of NOTES that the BOND market is broken as an indicator of inflation expectations because the FED‘s large scale asset program has created an artificial support to LONG-TERM BOND PRICES.


Notes From Underground: Brazil Shaves Their Rates Unexpectedly

September 1, 2011

First of all, NOTES will be on HIATUS for a well deserved rest from the turmoil of global events and the chaotic impact they have had on markets.


Notes From Underground: Is April EMPLOYMENT GOING TO BE A LION OR A LAMB?

March 31, 2011

The U.S. unemployment report will be issued on Friday  at the regular time: 7:30 CST. It seems that the consensus is for 210,000 nonfarm payroll, a rate of 8.9 percent and an increase in hourly wages of 0.2 percent. It seems that a 300,000-plus number is in the cards which is why the FED Presidents that are not of the perma-dove camp are ramping up the anti-inflationary rhetoric. Today, Minneapolis FED President KOCHERLAKOTA caused a late move in the DOLLAR, METALS and SHORT-DATED interest rates as he raised the possibility of the FED raising rates by 75 BASIS POINTS. The DOLLAR had been lower all day as month- and quarter-end positioning allowed the power trend funds to push their profitable positions in the desired direction, but KOCHERLAKOTA did cause a late reversal with his aggressive comments.


Notes From Underground: The financial markets buy what Trichet is selling

March 3, 2011

First things first: Tomorrow is unemployment data day and this report will not be preceded by the CANADIAN release as our northern neighbors need an extra week to compile the data as February is a shortened month. The jobless claims and Thursday’s ADP data is driving up the non-farm payroll number from an early consensus of 175,000 to a whisper number above 250,000.


Notes From Underground: The Unemployme​nt Data (A Tale of Two Numbers)

February 6, 2011

As all the media reported, the U.S. unemployment numbers clouded and befuddled the markets as the non-farm payroll (NFP) was much lower than expected, yet the unemployment rate dropped to 9.o percent to 9.4 percent. This is the second consecutive month that the headline unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percent. However, both reporting periods showed very anemic JOBS GROWTH. Ben Bernanke and other FED officials have said it would take jobs growth of more than 200,000 a month to begin to bring the rate down. Even though the rate dropped 0.4 percent on a NFP number of 36,000-plus, it raises more questions than answers. (more…)

Notes From Underground: MIlton Friedman was wrong about free lunch–Ben Bernanke had it at the National Press Club

February 3, 2011

Today, the main story was the address that Chairman Bernanke delivered to the National Press Club as his topic was the, “The Economic Outlook and Macroeconomic Policy.” The FED Chairman’s speech was a “redo” of Mervyn King’s speech 10 days ago. It seems that the FED is adhering to the same view as the BOE, in that the FED will stay the course on QE and its present monetary policy. Inflation is not a problem even though some highly visible price increases have taken place in some commodities but that is due to the growing demand from the emerging economies. Core inflation was “only 0.7 percent in 2010” and wage growth is non-existent, so there is no worry on the inflation front.


Notes From Underground: OOPS, got it way wrong on the JOBLESS CLAIMS

December 2, 2010

Well, my guesstimate on jobless claims was way off as the previous number was not supported by further improvement. The consensus was 425,000 and the number actually reported was 436,000, well above what I anticiapted and hoped would be a three handle.