Posts Tagged ‘Nonfarm Payroll’

Notes From Underground: Is Charlie Evans a Lonesome Dove?

January 8, 2015

Tomorrow is the release of the U.S. and Canadian Employment reports, which are usually days of increased market volatility. Usually, Notes From Underground provide some insight into possible market movement based on attaining a sense of investor consensus and putting that into perspective based on relevant indicators and pre-release price action across a wide variety of variables.

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment Gains Manufacturing a Recovery

February 5, 2012

The Obama administration had much to cheer as the NONFARM PAYROLL number exceeded almost all the pundits and FED‘s projections. Just before the release, CNBC analysts were in herd formation all gathered around the “BULL” of safety and predicted around a 100,000 job gain. Job gains came in at roughly 250,000 even as state and local governments continued to shed employees. Earlier, the Canadian data was tepid, but again, the Ontario manufacturing sector added jobs and is mirroring the increase in manufacturing seen in the U.S. Whether the predictors of the release are right or wrong makes no difference to traders or investors for the most important pundit is the market’s reaction.

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Notes From Underground: Is the Euro the New Funding Currency For the Carry Trade?

January 5, 2012

For many years the carry trade has been the mainstay of the RISK-ON profile. For some periods the ZERO INTEREST RATE POLICY of Japan forced money out of its system and in search of high-yield currencies in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and other attractive venues. One of the best carry trades ever was LONG BRAZILIAN REAL/SHORT YEN as investors could fund the trade by borrowing YEN at very low rates and placing it in high yielding Brazilian bank accounts. As the Brazilian currency attained status as a commodity currency and, thus, a proxy for the China growth story, the BRAZILIAN REAL soared and the carry trade was a major win/win. When the U.S. FED went to an extreme low interest rate, the U.S. DOLLAR became a funding currency as the U.S. became a much less attractive place for global capital flows.

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment Numbers Tell Us the Economy is a PERFECT TEMPERATURE?

December 4, 2011

As the news came out on Friday morning, the headline reported that the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6% from 9%–at first glance, the rate looked like 98.6 on the economic thermometer. The analysts are still arguing over the meaning of this data, but for traders and investors the real outcome is meaningless. It may lead to foreign investors purchasing U.S. equities as America is seen to be a relatively stronger economy, especially when compared with the EUROPEAN CREDIT-STRESSED environment.

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Notes From Underground: IT IS THAT TIME OF THE MONTH AGAIN? (TO VIEW THE PAINS OF LABOR)

July 7, 2011

Yes, the ECB raised rates today and Trichet failed to listen to the wisdom offered by NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. That means I have overestimated the wisdom of Trichet while underestimating the size of his ego. The rate rise to 1.5% was widely anticipated so the EURO was immediately sold but regained some strength after the ECB announced that it was WAVING THE MINIMUM CREDIT RATING FOR PORTUGUESE BONDS USED AS COLLATERAL FOR REPOS. As the ECB raises rates, it allows for weak collateral to be utilized thus allowing for a large liquidity infusion. This is a fine example of Dostoyevsky’s Grand Inquisitor as bread is taken from the people with one hand and returned to them with the other and the people believe it is a miracle. Europe has become a “ball of confusion.” Why raise rates when you are simultaneously lowering credit standards to prevent a sovereign default?

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment in the U.S.–Does Slowing Jobs Provide the FED With a Pause That Refreshes?

June 5, 2011

The U.S. jobs report provided great support to the bears on Wall Street as the 54,000 nonfarm payroll number led to a sell off in the DOLLAR and another drop in the Dow, S&Ps and all other equity indexes. For all the equity down/dollar up analysts, last week was a breakdown of that temporary correlation. U.S. equities were down more than 2% for the week while the EURO was up 2.5%. It seems that the global financial community is becoming more concerned about a softening U.S. economy and what it will mean for the budget discussions and FED policy.

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Notes From Underground: Yellin is Yelling while Bernanke goes behind closed Senate doors

January 9, 2011

The unemployment number on Friday was tepid relative to consensus. The ADP data on Wednesday raised Wall Street’s “animal spirits” and ramped up expectations of a NFP number of more than 200,000. Hours worked and average hourly earnings were also soft. The outlier on the data was the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE which dropped to 9.4 percent from 9.8 percent. Soon after the report was released, an avid reader, ASA, pointed out a piece on ZERO HEDGE, that analyzed what an aberration a 103,000 job gain is in relation to such a significant drop in the rate of the unemployed.

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Notes From Underground: The markets will labor with the unemployment report

January 6, 2011

Let me state out again as to why the FOREX markets are going to be a difficult investment in 2011. The emerging markets and commodity-based currencies have been the repositories of global capital seeking to take advantage of the Chinese and India growth phenomena without having to actually invest in the countries themselves. If you like China, buy the Australian equity or currency as it provides a proxy on Beijing’s growth policies: A classic case of providing picks and shovels rather than mining yourself.

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Notes From Underground: Bernanke sings with Huey Lewis–Your Cash Ain’t Nothing But Trash

November 4, 2010

In day one of the world held hostage, the FED‘s QE2 program proved a great success. The dollar declined. Commodities soared. Metals shined. The equity markets took its newfound wealth effect in full stride. And the Treasury market rallied. Even though the 30-year bond is not a major component of the FED‘s purchasing program, it too rallied strongly as the sub 2.5 percent yield on the 10-year note sent investors further down the curve looking for a little more yield. The FED got all the bang out of the “wealth effect” that it could as investors around the world have realized that their  “cash was nothing but trash”–exactly the outcome the FED is looking to achieve.

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Notes From Underground: Unemployment Friday and the market has built in huge expectations

June 3, 2010

Friday brings the May unemployment report. The consensus jobs number is for 500,000-plus on the NFP, a 9.8 percent jobless rate and average hourly earnings to rise 0.1 percent. The headline number will be difficult as we will have to factor out the census hiring, but we will wait to decipher construction and manufacturing as being very important.

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