Posts Tagged ‘nonfarm payrolls’
February 2, 2023
It was the week that was as three main central bank interest rate decisions from the FEDERAL RESERVE, BANK OF ENGLAND and EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK rocked the markets. There is more to follow Friday morning as the vaunted employment data will be released. The market is expecting 190,000 jobs created, a 3.6% unemployment rate, a 34.4-hour workweek and a 0.3% gain in average hourly earnings. After all of the central bank-induced volatility that last data point carries little weight unless it shocks to the robust economic upside.
If the unemployment rate fell too much — to say, 3.3% — or AHE soared above 0.7% it would send bond yields much higher, reversing the recent sizable rally in global bond prices triggered by central banks preparing to “pause.”
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Tags:Bank of England, Christine Lagarde, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell, nonfarm payrolls, rate hikes
Posted in BOE, Debt Market, ECB, Fed | 4 Comments »
September 2, 2021
After FEDERAL RESERVE Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, the jobs data may have taken on added significance. Inflation was not a concern for Powell as that is considered transitory within the bowels of the FOMC. The failure of the employment situation to enable all who lost jobs due to COVID “through no fault of their own” has regained paramount importance.
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Tags:Bill Gross, central banks, Federal Reserve, FOMC, inflation, Jerome Powell, nonfarm payrolls, QE, U.S. Dollar, yield curve control
Posted in Debt Market, Fed | 14 Comments »
January 10, 2021
I had the pleasure of sitting down with Louis Gave last week and we discussed many of the pressing issues facing the global macro world. In May 2020, Richard Bonugli provided the FRA platform as a place to discuss the global outlook with a little bit of FORESIGHT. We HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK. Hopefully, our most recent analysis will provide similar investment outcomes and maybe succeed in clarifying some important issues facing the investment community as 2021 begins.
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Tags:Euro, Federal Reserve, Japanese yen, nonfarm payrolls, precious metals, Treasury bonds, U.S. Dollar, U.S. yield curve, yield curve control
Posted in Currency, United States | 20 Comments »
February 6, 2020
It has been an interesting first month of trading as markets have gone from searching for inflation fueled by a rise in commodity prices and a weakening dollar, especially in regards to emerging market currencies. The commodity rally coupled with an upward thrust in emerging markets ran into the headwind of the spread of the Coronavirus from Wuhan, China to several other nations. The whiff of inflation was subsumed by the onset of fears of global deflation as investors continue to be concerned about China economic activity grinding to a halt as quarantines are the prescribed remedy for preventing a genuine pandemic.
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Tags:Christine Lagarde, consumer, Coronavirus, nonfarm payrolls, tariffs, Wilbur Ross
Posted in trade, unemployment, United States | 4 Comments »
January 9, 2020
On Monday, I had a chat with Anthony Crudele about the global macro impact on markets in 2020. As I always warn (in an effort to mimic MAO), there are many potential prairie fires in the world that COULD be ignited by a single spark. The Middle East is a potential prairie fire — every year. We were reminded of this over the last week as multiple events in IRAQ/IRAN brought the world to the precipice of cataclysmic outcomes. For now, the situation seems to be contained as GOLD, sovereign bonds and other tools of wealth protection.
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Tags:global macro, Gold, Middle East, nonfarm payrolls, U.S./Iran, yield curves
Posted in United States | 22 Comments »
November 3, 2019
Yes, the leaves have shed, frost is certainly on the pumpkin and there’s even six inches of snow in Chicago. The news has been clogged with positive results from the recent phone calls between Lighthizer/Mnuchin and their Chinese negotiating partners. Even Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross was aglow with positive news from his ASEAN meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. President Trump was tweeting about a possible signing ceremony in Iowa.
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Tags:Federal Reserve, ISM, Jerome Powell, material reassessment, metals, nonfarm payrolls, Richard Clarida, U.S. equties
Posted in Fed, United States | 2 Comments »
April 4, 2019
On Friday we have U.S. and Canadian employment. The Canadian report is important because Canada is an important trading partner of the U.S. so any slowing in Canadian employment may reflect of slowing cross-border trade. The consensus is for Canada to have a DECLINE of 10,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 5.8 percent. From a global perspective, Canada is a good look at the continuing narrative about slowing global economy, which is significant as the New Zealand, Australian, European and Japanese central banks have used the slowing global economy as the reason for maintaining their current accommodative monetary policies. The Canadian dollar has been weak versus many of the key currencies so weak jobs should put more pressure on the Canadian dollar.
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Tags:average hourly earnings, Canada, Gold, nonfarm payrolls, U.S., wage inflation, yield curves
Posted in data, Fed, United States | 9 Comments »