Posts Tagged ‘Norge Bank’

Notes From Underground: The Fed Came, Saw and Failed to Conquer Its Fear

March 19, 2015

The results of the FOMC meeting: Ray Dalio–1, Janet Yellen–0 (h/t KM). It seems that the FED is fearful of upsetting the Dalio apple cart by raising rates and possibly tipping off a sell off in global assets. As I wrote on Tuesday, the walk back of taking the “patient” off the respirator would result in a DOLLAR selloff as long dollar positions were hopeful of an unequivocal position statement from the Fed on a near-term interest rate increase. Notes From Underground believed the FOMC statement would remove patient from the release and then Yellen would defang the hawks by being cautious about the strong dollar and continuing concern over the lack of wage growth in an economy with improving employment metrics.


Notes From Underground: A Visit to February 5 (Sometimes A Reminder Is Necessary To Clear The Stain Of Bad Execution)

March 15, 2012

The world is carrying on in its design of vast pools of liquidity in a “sea of tranquility” … for the moment. Are Europe’s problems solved as the FRENCH ROOSTER Nicholas Sarkozy has crowed? Absolutely not. The travails of debt plagued economies will begin for the nations living on the IBERIAN PENINSULA. As I have argued for a long time in this BLOG, Spain is a far worse problem then Italy but Italian BONDS suffered as they were the only FUTURES HEDGE AVAILABLE FOR THE PROBLEMS OF THE GIIPS.


Notes From Underground: RBA Speaks, 9:30 CST

February 1, 2010

Our readers need to be aware that at 9:30 CST, the Aussie Bank will let us know what their policy on interest rates is going to be. Until last week, the market had a high probability that they would raise rates up to 4%, but with risk off trades dominating the landscape the probability has dropped. It seems that there is a consensus of a 65% probability for a rate raise. If the Bank does nothing, look for support levels (consult your technicals) for we think nothing became anticipated with last week’s commodity selloff.

If they raise rates, the AUSSIE ought to outperform on the crosses but we will watch and look for AUSSIE support. If the global growth story is over, then of course the AUSSIE will weaken but we do not believe we have reached that point yet. Later this week we will get the NORGE BANK and then Thursday the ECB and the Bank of England. For the record, we saw the European credit spreads narrow today as the German/Greek differential narrowed in 20 basis points and the Spanish and Italian speads to the German Bund about 8 basis points. Just keeping an eye on market sentiment.