Posts Tagged ‘oil’

Notes From Underground: William Dudley Starts Goodbye With a “Dud” Speech

November 6, 2017

As reported over the weekend, New York Fed President William Dudley is turning in his keys to the printing press and leaving the Fed in mid-2018 to spend more time with his family (Goldman Sachs). In a speech delivered to the Economic Club of New York, the reigning king of the New York Fed praised the central bank for its effort to prevent a collapse of the global financial system. He laid blame for the crisis on all the familiar miscreants but mostly stressed that “the safeguards put in place in response to the crisis are fully appreciated and respected.” President Dudley maintains that the global financial crisis was a result of lacking the tools to regulate the entire financial system and sums up his analysis: “We had woefully inadequate regulatory regime in place,and while it is much better now, there is still work to do.”

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Notes From Underground: When I Have Something to Say Sir, I’M GOING TO SAY IT NOW (Phil Ochs)

February 3, 2016

The markets are in turmoil and it gets the mind to thinking: What could possibly have caused today’s reversal in the stock market and the long end of the BOND MARKET? The market seemed like it was on the edge of a complete risk capitulation. The dollar was dropping, bonds all over the world were in rally mode and the precious metals were finally finding some technical strength as the GOLD (in pure dollar terms) had finally rallied through its 200-day moving average. Even the SILVER was able to synchronize with the GOLD and break out of three months of resistance. (The silver 200-day is at 15.13, still a bit above its closing price.) The global stock markets were cascading lower as the Nikkei and German DAX took out their lows made the night of the BOJ’s surprise move to a three-tiered negative interest rate policy.

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Notes From Underground: “A Single Spark Can Start A Prairie Fire” (Mao, 1930)

January 11, 2016

You don’t have to be a weather man to know which way the wind is blowing, or so says Bob Dylan. As long as all things are emanating out of China it may be the time to dust off the sayings of Mao for as the talking heads are reminding us daily: “The East Wind Is Prevailing Over the West” in all things financial. THE PROBLEM FOR ME IS I DON’T ACCEPT THAT VIEW AND AM IN THE CAMP OF FORMER DALLAS FED PRESIDENT RICHARD FISHER that all roads lead to the FED and certainly the European Union for providing the tinder for a financial prairie fire. There has been so much volatility during the first six trading days of the year it is difficult to get a handle on what is  algo-driven non-fundamental and what may be the commencement of a change in previous momentum trades. Today I will go through a list of POTENTIAL SPARKS TO IGNITE THE  FLAMES OF A FINANCIAL FIRE so that we can be aware of what constitutes  a genuine change in momentum:

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Notes From Underground: We Got Trouble With a Capital “T”, That Rhymes With “P”

March 11, 2014

 

Yra on CNBC, March 11, 2014Watch Rick Santelli and I discuss “The Big P” that is Putin.

Notes From Underground: The Fed’s Dilemma

January 7, 2013

The Fed’s policy has painted itself into a proverbial corner. A ZEROHEDGE piece shows that in the age group of 16-55 there has been a loss of 2.7 million jobs during the previous few years, while in the 55-69 age group there has been a gain of 4 million jobs. This has been a recurrent theme of Notes From Underground during the last two years. The FED‘s policy of financial repression has resulted in an outcome that its beloved models failed to predict. The baby boomers haven’t been able to retire  because their saving plans have been undermined by the zero interest rate policy. Zerohedge shows that debt-ladened college graduates are unable to find jobs and thus are struggling to repay education loans. Recent college grads are forced to live at home and are not creating new households.

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Notes From Underground: Central Bank Poker–After the AUSSIES CHECKED, the BOE BET; the ECB CALLED

July 5, 2012
No great surprises from the mandarins of global finance. First, the BOE announced the widely anticipated 50 BILLION QUID increase in the QE program but Mervyn King and company did not cut the overnight lending rate. Following on the heels of the BOE, the ECB, under the guidance of Mario Draghi, cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% and also lowered the ECB deposit rate to zero from 0.25%. Again, no surprises, although the DEPOSIT RATE CUT WAS NOT WIDELY EXPECTED. Why did Draghi move to make the deposit rate ZERO?
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Notes From Underground: OIL–A CONJECTURE

March 21, 2012

Before I take a few days hiatus (well deserved) and with the world in a more “serene” state, it is a good time to contemplate the recent news out of the GULF REGION. In a story in yesterday’s Financial Times, “Saudis battle to calm oil fears,” it seems that the Saudis have consigned 11 VLCCS to send a total of TWENTY-TWO MILLION BARRELS of crude to the U.S. This is an interesting development as high U.S. gas prices are seen to be an issue in the upcoming presidential election.

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Notes From Underground: HIGHER OIL … Greasing the Skid or Lubricating Liquidity

February 23, 2012

Sorry, couldn’t resist the obvious. Many MOONS ago if OIL PRICES were rising the BOND MARKET WOULD BE GETTING SOLD, EQUITY MARKETS WOULD BE STRUGGLING AS IT WAS FEARED THAT THE FED AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKS WOULD BE RAISING RATES TO STEM THE FEAR OF INFLATION. WHAT A DIFFERENT WORLD IN WHICH WE INVEST. As oil prices head higher, the bonds and equities both rally as did the PRECIOUS METALS.  SO WHAT DYNAMIC MAY BE AT WORK?

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Notes From Underground: Let The Markets Reveal Their Resolutions

January 2, 2012

The “MARKET” will resolve to test the GRIT of traders and investors as the mysteries of politics and economics collide to make the daily lives of traders difficult, to say the least. In 2011, the markets left traders and various investors sleeping like babies as we were relegated to getting up every hour to cry. We must remember that the market’s “JOB” is to  cause as much heartache and pain to as many people as possible as money seeks to attain a positive return Last year the market was in its full glory as it caused some of the world’s foremost global macro investors to be humbled in a capacity not seen since the credit market debacle of 1994-95. This year seems to be of a similar ilk as the travails of the EUROPEAN UNION will continue to weigh upon the flows of global capital.

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Notes From Underground: When I have Something to Say Sir I Am Going to Say It Now! (Phil Ochs)

November 8, 2011

Yes, all the news about Prime Minister Berlusconi is pure puff and nonsense. The Italian economic situation will not change one iota when Silvio steps aside and, in fact, I would argue that the situation will become more volatile. Italy has seen so many governments come and go since the end of WORLD WAR II that it must be the role model for Japan. Mr. Berlusconi may be a scoundrel but the markets and the Italians know what they have and it seems that Berlusconi the known is better than what may come next. If the present government falls there is a possibility that a more leftist coalition will be formed and it is doubtful if it would be prone to pass an AUSTERITY plan.

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