Posts Tagged ‘private equity’

Notes From Underground: Global Macro In a World of Rising Big Data

August 12, 2013

The new buzz word from the realm of the “talking heads” is BIG DATA. When we mention FACEBOOK and the other social media companies, the discussion leads to big data. The issue of Snowden and the NSA is the U.S. Government’s collection of vast amounts of personal data on U.S. citizens in the name of national security and preventing possible acts of terror. Ultimately, the discussion is about the ability of computers to search through ginormous amounts of data and find patterns that will reveal threatening behavior. In the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger wrote an article, “The Rise of Big Data.” It is an essay adapted from a book they wrote. Three key points are outlined:

1.Collect a lot of data rather than rely on small samples;

2. Not be concerned about how pristine the data may be and through algorithms sort through vast amounts of data regardless how messy it may be because quantity is more important than quality;

3. (THIS IS KEY FOR THE REALM OF GLOBAL MACRO FINANCIAL WORLD) “IN MANY INSTANCES,WE WILL NEED TO GIVE UP OUR QUEST TO DISCOVER THE CAUSE OF THINGS,IN RETURN FOR ACCEPTING CORRELATIONS.”

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Notes From Underground: MOODY’S Downgrades Greece again, and yet the DOLLAR fails to gain strength

March 7, 2011

Moody’s, the major seers of economic events, has done it again. The Greek sovereign debt rating was lowered and rates on 2-year Greek notes increased to more than 15 percent. Rates on Greek 10-year debt rose to more than 12 percent, yet this is not an inverted curve that one would wish to buy. The group at Moody’s is awakening to the coming dreadful effects of the “NEGATIVE FEEDBACK LOOP.” The more the economy is squeezed, the less tax revenue is collected and that results in a further deterioration of the GREEK BUDGET. The Greek government is going to have to go back to the EU/IMF bailout gurus and ask for further assistance in preventing the next round of financing from causing a greater drain on Greek Government coffers. Imagine the deleterious effects of the Greek polity having to refinance its DEBT at current market rates rather than the considerable lower rates offered through the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

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