There is now rampant talk about a revived FED QE4 program, most powerfully talked about by Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio and Larry Summers (from the genetically powered economics family of Samuelson and Arrow). On December 24, Santelli and I considered the possibility of QE4 (see clip below). I posed this question to all investors: How would the equity markets react if the FED had to reignite its large asset purchases?
Tags:Fed, G-20, Japan, Larry Summers, QE4, Ray Dalio, RBA, Won, Yen, Yuan
Posted in Fed | 3 Comments »
Last week New York Fed President Bill Dudley opined that the economy looks great but is less compelling in regards to raising interest rates, while the Fed’s Vice Chairman insisted that we only want to do things right. There were also other Fed Presidents offering their thoughts and the markets became more confused. Each FOMC member seems to analyze the data and come to a different conclusion about the timing of a move to raises interest rates. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota went from being considered a hawk two years ago when he proposed an initial target of 6.5% unemployment. Now he has moved his target ever lower and would prefer to wait until the economy runs a “little hot.”
Tags:Fed, Fed Funds, FOMC, GDP, Janet Yellen, Kocherlakota, QE4, SPS, Stanley Fischer
Posted in Uncategorized | 8 Comments »
Well, the famed modeler from M.I.T. has finally admitted that he has been an avid reader of Notes From Underground and in the world of global macro finance, 2+2=5. The FOMC statement was a surrender to the work of Michael Woodford as was pre-released in a Janet Yellen speech a few weeks ago. The FED will give great credence to a 6.5% unemployment and a 2% inflation threshold, give or take a 0.5% discretionary prerogative. The 6.5% unemployment threshold is also subject to FED discretion for it seems to depend on whether or not the labor participation rate is increasing while the unemployment rate declines.
Tags:Ben Bernanke, BOJ, EUR/CHF, FOMC, Gold, gold/euro, gold/Swiss, Janet Yelln, MBS, Michael Woodford, QE4, Shinzo Abe, SNB, Thomas Jordan, U.S. 10-Year Note, Yen, yen/dollar, ZIRP
Posted in BoJ, Currency, Debt Market, Fed, Japan, SNB | 5 Comments »
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