On Thursday Rick Santelli pushed and prodded and as a result, we were able to travel from Japan to Europe in an effort to discuss some of the more pressing issues confronting the global macro world. First, we stopped in Japan to discuss how the BOJ and Governor Kuroda will be able to extricate itself from five years of QQE which has seen the BOJ accumulate Japanese debt and equities. Of course the end game is to reach the self-imposed inflation level of 2 percent that has proved to be an agonizing level to achieve. As a reminder, when a nation is saddled with huge debts the best relief is to be found in inflation, which results in an ultimate money illusion as debts are paid back with an ever-depreciated currency.
Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global policy.
First: On Oct. 18 I talked with Richard Bonugli from the Financial Repression Authority and financial analyst John Browne, a former member of the British Parliament. I am linking to the transcript of the chat. The conversation was free-flowing and was heavily tilted toward geopolitical concerns and shed light on investment possibilities. But as readers of NOTES well know, many of out best trade outcomes are based on political economy as well as mere yield curves. Last week the 2/10 did challenge the 73.5 basis point level (again) and by Friday the 2/10 had bounced back to 81 basis points.
A long-time reader of Notes From Underground posted a comment to a previous post promoting long GOLD/short YEN. When I asked him about this trade he noted the onset of currency wars. There is no question, as I have regularly shown that many foreign central banks’ currency’s strength is a reason to maintain very low interest rates and if in place QE programs. I certainly agree with Arthur about this narrative. But from a relative value perspective the Japanese yen has already benefited from its weakening versus the EURO, Aussie, Kiwi, Canada and Swiss franc.
Not a word was spoke between us,there was little risk involved Everything up to that point ,had been left unresolved Try imagining a place where it’s always safe and warm Come in, she said, I’ll give you shelter from the storm
When Bob Dylan released this song 42 years ago it was on the album Blood on the Tracks. When the FED embarked on its QE1, QE2 and QE3 it was to respond to the blood coursing through the streets of the U.S. financial system. The U.S. banking system was threatened with insolvency and the FED‘s monetary injections sheltered the banking system from a storm of forced systemic liquidation of assets. QE1 coupled with a questionable TARP program did prevent a systemic liquidation but QE2 and QE3 I always believed were superfluous but in the land of counterfactuals it is an impossible point to prove.
Dateline Japan: When the BOJ released its policy decision in the wee hours of December 18, the algos interpreted the news as an expansion of monetary stimulus and assumed it was the QQE program. In the press conference, BOJ Governor Kuroda explained that the extension was not an additional easing but merely an extension of bond duration that the BOJ would buy. Because there’s a dearth of bonds available for purchase, the BOJ is extending purchases to include those of 12 years in length.
This afternoon, San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivered a speech that I believe signals a rate rise at the October meeting. It seems that the chorus of criticism from all corners of the political and economic spectrum is causing the FED to reconsider its September decision to keep rates at zero bound, even with the weak September jobs data. The voices of Summers and Krugman have been drowned out by the criticisms from investors and other academics. Why do I think the rate increase is coming? Williams gave three hints in a speech he delivered today, “The Economic Outlook:Live Long and Prosper.”
The Fed released the minutes from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting and we would all do well to remember to be PATIENT and not be so quick to react to the headlines. (Again, I am going on record to plead that the Fed not release any data early to journalists so they may be able to release their headlines in unison with the actual Fed release. Many journalists write headlines that are misleading and allow the HFT algorithms to exploit key word phrases that are not substantiated by the actual story.) A case in point is the CNBC headline that appeared at the moment of the Fed release: “Several Participants Judged That Economic Data And Outlook Were Likely To Warrant Beginning Normalization At The June Meeting.” Yes, this is a direct quote from the minutes but it comes with a QUALIFIER. Following that line is this: “HOWEVER [emphasis mine], others anticipated that the effects of energy price declines and the dollar’s appreciation would continue to weigh on inflation in the near term, suggesting that conditions likely would not be appropriate to begin raising rates until later in the year, and a couple of participants suggested that the economic outlook likely would not call for liftoff until 2016.”
Late Thursday night, the BOJ surprised the markets with an acceleration in the pace of increasing the monetary base. The bank will increase its asset purchases to 80 trillion yen from a previous annual amount of 50-60 trillion yen. The bank will also purchase ETFs and J-REITs at an added 3 trillion yen a year, a massive amount of increase of its balance sheet. In Japan the BOJ‘s program is referred to as QQE for it is both a quantitative and qualitative program. As it is pointed out, the BOJ will wind up owning 75 percent of the JGB market as banks and pension funds unload BONDS onto the ultimate buyer of last resort. When Japan was in a deflationary economy, owning BONDS made perfect sense as negative prices gave rise to REAL HIGHER YIELDS.
Tread lightly into the throes of Fedspeak for first comes the FOMC statement a 1 p.m. CST followed by the last press conference of Chairman Bernanke’s term at 1:30 p.m. The markets are going to be volatile as confusion reigns in all asset classes. Today, the Treasury market was trying to reassert a steepening bias into the 5/30 yield curve as the FIVES were strong and the 30-YEARYIELDS were rising. However, by day’s end the 5/30 retraced and closed unchanged on the day (if you trade the curve in futures terms the ratio is almost three FIVES to one THIRTY-year bond). Consensus has changed and the bias is for a tapering the question is: HOW LARGE? I have assumed a $20 billion tapering and I will stick with that “bold” conjecture. It is important to listen for any language of forward guidance on the unemployment threshold for if the Fed were to hint at lowering the 6.5% threshold, markets will reverse course, especially the S&Ps and DOW,which have spent the last few days in correction mode.
Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global policy.