First, bravo to the Bernanke Fed for staying the course and learning from its September mistake: Don’t mislead the markets with a sudden change of direction. It appears that the Fed will provide investors with enough “forward guidance” if they wish to alter the market’s perceptions. FOMC members had plenty of time to dissuade traders if the recent slew of tepid data was going to steer Bernanke and Company away from another cut in QE purchases. The FED erred on the side of consistency rather than swerving to avoid the skidding emerging markets. Again, a FED pause would have further roiled a very nervous global financial market.
Posts Tagged ‘South Africa’
Notes From Underground: The Power of Big Data In the Time of Correlative Investment
January 30, 2014Notes From Underground: Awaiting the FOMC
September 20, 2011The media has made the idea of a TWIST by the FED a sure thing. Okay, can’t argue with consensus, but of course that is why this blog exists: To question the thought process of the purveyors of conventional wisdom and to try to profit in a real-time world from challenging the status quo. If the FED TWISTS will the markets turn? BUT TURN TO WHAT? What will a lowering of the rate on the 10-year note do to a stalling economy with zero interest rates? Bernanke himself alluded to the BALANCE SHEET REPAIR taking place in the private sector, which was holding back consumer demand. Even though corporate balance sheets are healthy, capital investment lags as the corporations fear lackluster demand so there is no rush to create new supply.
Notes From Underground: Time to throw the French Finance Minister to the Dustbin of History
May 26, 2011My turn. Everybody has had a comment on the appointment of the next IMF Managing Director. First, allow me again to voice my disdain for the IMF as it is usually late to the rescue party and its money and advice have done great harm to many in the the “emerging economies.” Most IMF actions have been to bailout the profligate creditors who made ill-thought out loans with the knowledge that there would be an international lending institution to backstop most losses. The post war world is replete with mal advice and ill-conceived programs that brought great pain to many economies in the underdeveloped world. Saying that does not mean that the IMF will be disbanded so the world is forced to engage the devil it knows.
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Notes From Underground: Healthy and Happy New Year to our Readers
December 30, 2010It has been a great privilege to share my thoughts and market insights and allow me to occupy some of the highly prized real estate on your electronic devices. I can unequivocally say that I learn much from my readers and derive great benefit from synthesizing my thoughts and putting them into trades. The basis of NOTES is to make sense of the global political and financial fabric and then try to succeed where I believe the econometric and financial markets fail. It’s never easy to review one’s ideas and see where the failure to act has taken place.