Posts Tagged ‘S&P’

Notes From Underground: Wake Up! Wake Up! For Your Light Has Come

June 11, 2017

This line comes from the Jewish liturgy of welcoming the Sabbath. I use it here to make a note to my readers about a possible signal that the NASDAQ 100 sent on Friday. Now I don’t hold myself out as anything but a third-rate TECHNICIAN (reader of chart formations), but having been taught by one of the greatest technical minds (thanks H.G.), I know to watch certain formations for signals in a POSSIBLE change in sentiment. THE CHART THAT CAUSES CONCERN NASDAQ 100 made ALL TIME HIGHS LAST WEEK BUT CLOSED BELOW THE PREVIOUS WEEK’S LOWS. Do I know when the market will reward a short position?

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Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast

January 29, 2017

Tonight I am posting the latest episode from the Financial Repression Authority (click on the blue link to listen). I do these for no remuneration as I think the information flowing out of this group creates great conversation and can generate some very profitable investment opportunities. Yes, it’s 34 minutes long but it is more LEARNATIVE than the network news. So pour a stiff whisky and listen while doing other reading. I share this with, you readers because I am honored to be a part of this great dialectical process. One of the key points in tonight’s post is the development of a narrative in which to analyze the world of Trump. It is not a partisan narrative but one I am developing as I attempt to discern the unfolding global dialogue being put forward by Team Trump.

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Notes From Underground: Volatility Into A Holiday Market–Small Boats Stay Close To Shore

December 9, 2015

WARNING: Put on your life lines, foul weather gear and be ready for the boom to come flying about (thanks Whitewave). There are violent winds blowing in the financial seas as equity markets are giving warning that something is amiss. The 200-day moving averages for the DAX, CAC, Nikkei and SPOOS succumbed to selling pressure in synchronized fashion. The Dow Transportation Index looks atrocious, especially when viewed in terms of the steep drop in energy prices. Lower fuel costs are historically a boon to trains, planes and automobiles and most especially trucks. Lower fuel costs lead to increased profits for freight haulers (h/t American Limey and Professor Waspi).

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Notes From Underground: Weak Unemployment Report Creates A Cacophony of Market Reactions

October 4, 2015

Before we review Friday’s action, I would like to present a quote from Tolstoy sent from a long-time reader and is representative of the 2+2=5 basis of Notes From Underground. While I have respect for the theoretical basis in the continued search for knowledge, I try to write NOTES with a deeper understanding of the fundamentals that drive markets on a short- and long-term time scale.

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Notes From Underground: Why the Fed’s Credibility Is Suffering

August 23, 2015

As Harry Nilsson sang in “Everybody ‘s Talkin'”: Everybody ‘s talking at me, I don’t hear a word they’re saying, only the echoes of my mind.” This is true of the words from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard as he had the audacity to opine in the middle of Friday’s S&P and equity rout that: 1. “The Fed doesn’t react directly to equity markets”; and 2. “More sanguine than market on global outlook, China.” (source: Bloomberg). This is the very same James Bullard who is credited with halting the significant break in the SPOOS on October 15 when he mentioned that “the Fed should be open to continue its QE on the back of low inflation expectations.”

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Notes From Underground: In a 70th Anniversary Redo, I SAY NUTS to Global Financial Markets

December 21, 2014

First, as the clouds of sadness begin to lift I want to thank all of those who took time to send a note to the blog and to me in emails for the condolences on the passing of my mentor and friend. In a tribute to one of the great traders, the markets provided volatility reminiscent of a 21 gun salute, or maybe just 21% vol levels and a VIX to go with it.

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Notes From Underground: If …

September 30, 2014

Tonight I’m paying homage to Rudyard Kipling’s great poem, “If.” It’s a reminder of what the fourth quarter holds for global investors, and particularly traders with a much quicker reaction:

If you can keep your head  when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about,don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated,don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good,nor talk too wise

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Notes From Underground: Bored of the Talk or Is COMPLACENCY IS THE NEW NORMAL?

June 1, 2014

During the last month markets have adopted the approach of “Don’t Worry Be Happy.” No event increases risk awareness as central banks being perceived as the guardian angel of all global investors, so every possible geopolitical event is merely a fresh buying opportunity. This week brings the ECB rate decision and consensus seems to be that President Draghi has secured a vote in favor of cutting interest rates from 0.25% to 0.15%, a drop of 10 basis points, or, as the talking heads and pundits of pabulum will with great fanfare scream, the ECB has cuts interest rates by 40 PERCENT. Ah, the beauty of small numbers in a zero interest rate environment. I DOUBT THE ECB WILL GO NEGATIVE AT THIS TIME. Why? Negative interest rates by a large central bank will be an experiment that the ECB will not wish to embark on, especially as U.S. money market funds have returned to providing short-term financing for European entities. Going negative may result in money market funds shying away from the uncertainty of negative deposit rates paid by the central bank.

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Notes From Underground: Has the Fed Potentially Created a Trap For Itself??? (Maybe)

May 13, 2014

As the talk turns to concern about inflation in the U.S. and possibly the U.K., we must ask ourselves a question that will be our focus for at least the next six months.

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Notes From Underground: Making Sense From the U.S. Dollar Post-Payrolls

May 4, 2014

The U.S. unemployment data released on Friday was extremely positive on two measures: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 288,000 and the unemployment rate dropped from 6.7 to 6.3 percent. The soft side of the numbers was that the average hours worked remained flat and the all-important average hourly earnings also stayed flat, undermining the robustness of the headline figure. The U.S. dollar and U.S. bond markets initially performed as expected as the DOLLAR strengthened and bond yields rose in response to positive news. However, by day’s end the DOLLAR was LOWER and the yields on the long end of the CURVE had also dropped while the SPOOS and DOW failed to hold gains on what was a very strong employment picture. The reason given by analysts was that the Ukraine situation was becoming more volatile and caused investors to be cautious over the weekend.

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