Posts Tagged ‘Spain’

Notes From Underground: Trading Strategies For An Automated World

October 10, 2017

Yesterday, I sat down with the group TOPSTEP TRADER to discuss ways I prepare to trade. Topstep is a private group that educates/prepares potential traders for a profitable existence. As the fourth quarter has begun, I thought this video would be beneficial as a review for my readers. Reviewing rules and concepts are important, especially as I BELIEVE WE ARE HEADING INTO A PERIOD OF INCREASED VOLATILITY. A rise in market volatility can be a time of great profit but it comes with a major increase in risk. The complacency of the market because of the central banks continued intervention coupled with the risk selling of the risk-parity crowd. I say crowd because it is not just AQR and Bridgewater involved in risk parity but there are many volatility sellers piggy backing on the power of the largest market players. Remember, when George Soros/Druckenmiller broke the Bank of England in September 1992, it wasn’t just Soros but many of the banks servicing Soros were tailcoating the Quantum Fund. But when the elephants leave the drinking hole many denizens of the jungle get crushed (Niederhoffer).

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Notes From Underground: Brexit, Two Years Is A Long Time

March 30, 2017

The biggest news in a very slow week of news is the beginning of the Brexit plan as Prime Minister May sent a six-page memo to Brussels as Article 50 begins and the two-year time period allotted for extrication from the EU starts the clock ticking in a very formal fashion. I SAY THIS TO ALL MY READERS: Two years is a very long time. There are many political and economic events (unforeseen by the static minds of entrenched power elites) that can dynamically change currently perceived outcomes. The fragility of global politics can wreak havoc with the certainties laid down by the likes of Jean Claude Juncker. The current position of the Brussels bureaucrats is the desire to punish Britain for the temerity of its citizens to vote to exit the “UTOPIAN” construct of the European Union.

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Notes From Underground (Repost): A Celebration to the End of Q2, “A Single Spark To Light a Prairie Fire” (January 11)

June 30, 2016

The world is sitting on piles of tinder. Two of the potential dangers have passed in the last seven days. The Brexit vote has taken place and the Spanish elections have finished without any new disruption to the European political scene. In fact, Spain was interesting as Spanish voters seemed to be afraid of a Brexit-type market reaction and moved more support to the center-right as a vote for the known.

BUT TODAY THE ECB HAS POTENTIALLY IGNITED THE FLAMES OF GERMAN ANGER AS DRAGHI MOVED FOR THE QE PROGRAM TO BUY LOWER GRADE DEBT. THEY HAVE RUN OUT OF HIGH QUALITY BONDS TO BUY. This will not sit well with the AfD supporters in Deutschland. There were massive moves in the European sovereign spreads after the news release and more will certainly follow as the program becomes clearer.

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Notes From Underground: People Get Ready, There’s a Train (Chambers Brothers & Curtis Mayfield)

May 11, 2016

“There ain’t no room for the hopeless sinners,

who’s hurt all mankind just to save his own,

have  pity on those whose chances grow thinner

’cause there’s no hiding place from the kingdom’s throne.”

The sentiment is aptly described in this song but also in Niall Ferguson’s book, “War of the World.” In the book, Ferguson explains that European bond markets were initially unfazed at the start of World War I. They traded at a steady valuation, even as the troop trains were heading for the front.

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Notes From Underground: Making Sense Of the Treasury’s Guide to Currency Manipulation

May 2, 2016

While attempting to enjoy Pittsburgh (and hopefully a Cubs game), the markets buzzing about the U.S. Treasury’s report about the “Trade facilitation and trade Enforcement Act of 2015.” In a Bloomberg News article published late Friday afternoon, “U.S. Places China, Japan, Germany on New FX Monitoring List,” it seems that the Treasury and Jack Lew are raising the threat of retaliation against nations that meet the Congressional crafted criterion of currency manipulation. These include: 1. Significant bilateral trade surplus with U.S.; 2. Material current-account surplus; and 3. Engaged in persistent one-sided FX intervention. The issue of “one-sided intervention” is defined as only weakening a currency by conducting repetitive net purchases of FX amounting to more than 2% of its GDP.”

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Notes From Underground: Goldman Ought to Learn 2+2=5

January 20, 2016

Open question to Goldman Sachs: ARE YOU ARROGANT OR DEAF? There’s a story in tomorrow’s Financial Times there is a story titled, “Goldman Sachs Makes Large Donation to Pro-EU Campaign.” It is being reported that Goldman has made a large six-figure donation to Britain Stronger in Europe. Whoever thought this up needs their head examined. There is nothing in the world more TOXIC than the big investment banks. In a potentially existential issue for British democracy, the idea of a large U.S. investment bank playing in the U.K. referendum will stir the anti-EU forces to push harder for a NO vote. The anti-euro camp has many strong, legitimate former officials working hard to push England further from the restrictions of an overzealous group of Brussels eurocrats.

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Notes From Underground: More Proof of Algo-Driven Volatility

December 20, 2015
Dateline Japan: When the BOJ released its policy decision in the wee hours of December 18, the algos interpreted the news as an expansion of monetary stimulus and assumed it was the QQE program. In the press conference, BOJ Governor Kuroda explained that the extension was not an additional easing but merely an extension of bond duration that the BOJ would buy. Because there’s a dearth of bonds available for purchase, the BOJ is extending purchases to include those of 12 years in length.

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Notes From Underground: A Few Things Before the Financial Ship Sails

October 12, 2015

When holiday markets quash volume and new items repetitive, it provides an opportunity to catch up with some general concepts in a style I like to call “Quick Hitters.”

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Notes From Underground: In Honor of French Independence, Europe Imprisons the Greeks

July 14, 2015

And so it goes. As the light lifts off the European “bailout” it appears that most analysts agree that the “Agreement” was a lose-lose for the European Project. The Germans stood firm and placed unduly harsh demands upon the Greek electorate that had the temerity to openly reject the terms of debt resolution. Merkel had favored a real compromise until Alexis Tspiras deployed the nuclear option and went to referendum in an effort to better be able to negotiate with an intransigent Djisselbloehm and his ECOFIN council of Grand Inquisitors (see the Brothers Karamazov). The punishment meted out to the Greek nation is a loss for them but ultimately the real loss will be on Spain, Italy, and, of course France. The Germans have revealed that the use of Berlin’s money to support the EU is going to come at a price and it is the acceptance of an economic model for Europe that is German, its backdrop of course being sound money. Not the strong dollar mantra of the U.S. Treasury Secretary but an actual strong currency, at least until the German financial system enters a fragile state.

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Notes From Underground: Reissue–August 15, 2012

July 13, 2015

Earlier I was rereading a blog post from almost three years ago. I believe it still has great relevancy and gives us all perspective from where we have been to what the next three years may bring. Perspective for a global macro trader is very important for without it traders rush in where investors dare to tread.

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