Posts Tagged ‘SPS’
July 25, 2021
That headline is courtesy of Whitewave Trading, an interactive chat room in which high-powered analysis for traders generates some great trades and uses NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND to add a fundamental view. Monday’s Whitwave has this advice: “When and if they ever taper, I’ll turn over the trading card.”
For those never on the trading floor this is in reference to going from the BLUE buy side to the RED sell side. In a follow up to last week’s blog post this makes perfect sense for as it seems that a critical indicator to an equity correction in the U.S. would begin with the FED actually moving to a real TAPERING or in Peter Boockvar’s words, A QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING.
(more…)
Tags:China, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, livelihood commodities, QE, SPS, tapering
Posted in China, Commodities, Currency, Fed | 9 Comments »
July 22, 2021
At the beginning of the week, the COVID DELTA VARIANT was the major concern as the weekend brought news of a widespread increase. It seemed world financial markets were in the throes of concern of another pandemic lockdown with the Olympics being cancelled. We at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND offered context and stressed that the zero interest-rate markets would provide a far different backdrop than what occurred in March 2020. We did learn that zero interest rates lowered inflation concerns and the Olympics are still taking place, although to empty stadiums. SO THE BULL MARKET MUST GO ON.
(more…)
Tags:central banks, Christine Lagarde, Debt, ECB, European Central Bank, SPS
Posted in ECB | 9 Comments »
March 20, 2019
Wednesday’s FOMC statement and press conference was as dovish as we have heard in many moons. More importantly, the VOTE WAS UNANIMOUS. Even Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted with the group. Why was this dovish?
(more…)
Tags:balance sheet, Federal Reserve, global economy, Gold, Jerome Powell, slowing growth, SPS, U.S. Dollar, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Fed, United States | 17 Comments »
December 4, 2018
I’ve been thinking about the Churchill quote referring to Russia. Rather than referencing Russia my thoughts turn to the flattening yield curves that began on Monday. As commodity, global equities markets, the Chinese yuan and the precious metals all staged strong rallies, the long-end of the yield curve also rallied, especially the 10-YEAR. As a result, the 2/10 curve flattened to a 10-year low of 15 basis points. On Tuesday, the curves flattened even more as the 2/10 closed at 10.7 basis points. As Vizzini from the Princess Bride would say, “INCONCEIVABLE!” To support the rally in the long-end of the curve there was a retracement of the recent rally in global equity markets (the NIKKEI, DAX and S&Ps were all down substantially). This suggests that the positive news from the G-20 meeting has now been cast asunder because investors are struggling to comprehend what actually took place in Buenos Aires between the U.S. and Chinese delegations.
(more…)
Tags:10-year, DAX, ECB, Europe, G-20, metals, Nikkei, oil, Robert Lighthizer, SPS, trade, yield curves
Posted in Debt Market, Equity, United States | 18 Comments »
April 29, 2018
As T.S. Eliot warned in The Wasteland, April is the cruelest month, as the thaw of winter gives way to hope as the world returns to rejuvenation. April has delivered the first quarter corporate results and it is no exaggeration to state that revenue and earnings have exceeded expectations. However, the equity market results have failed to respond to the robust numbers as the SPOOS have gained a mere 1.25% and remain unchanged on the year. The NASDAQ 100 has been a much better performer as the TECH sector continues to cruise.
(more…)
Tags:ECB, Euro, Fed, Mario Draghi, NASDAQ, SNB, SPS, Thomas Jordan, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, ECB, Fed, Germany, SNB, Switzerland | 15 Comments »
April 25, 2018
In building on the discussions in Tuesday’s POST it is important to note that the debt discussion that has taken place in Notes From Underground is gaining traction as an important piece of the financial narrative. The failure of the SPOOS, NASDAQ, and DOW to gain traction with the robust earning releases is forcing the perplexed to confront the impact and collateral damage from Ben Bernanke’s Portfolio Balance Channel, also known as QE or large-scale asset purchases.
(more…)
Tags:AMLO, BOJ, Dow, ECB, Euro, Gold, gold/euro, Kuroda, Mario Draghi, Mexico, NASDAQ, Peso, SPS, U.S. 10-Year Note, U.S. Dollar, Yuan
Posted in BoJ, Currency, Debt Market, ECB | 8 Comments »
April 17, 2018
The market has several themes it is trying to digest, which made Tuesday’s price action interesting. Reported earnings have been as strong as whispered and with the Syrian bombing over the weekend, the markets had time to analyze the outcome (and as usual it was treated as a minimal event with no proliferation).
On Sunday night there was an immediate rally as the SPOOS gained 0.5 percent on the open. Strong earnings kept the rally in gear but what’s interesting that the financials failed to hold their initial rallies. This is important because most analysts were predicting significant growth in bank ROES, especially for the large Wall Street banks. Goldman’s FICC revenue increased by more than 20 percent as trading volatility provided an opportunity for one of the few remaining large prop shops remaining on the Street. The Goldman rallied fizzled and finished 2 percent down on the day.
(more…)
Tags:bank earnings, ECB, euro/chf, Fed, Gold, Robert Kaplan, silver, SPS, Swiss Franc, U.S. Dollar, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Uncategorized | 18 Comments »
February 5, 2018
We have had many false key technical signals over the last 12 months. BUT LAST WEEK there have been THREE KEY REVERSALS. The DOW, S&Ps AND NASDAQ all made all-time highs and closed below the previous week’s low. SYNCHRONICITY indeed. Pay close attention as the world is all aflutter with fears of higher interest weeks forcing a reassessment of equity values. I believe Monday’s massive selloff IS A RESULT OF THE MASSIVE EFFECT OF THE RISK PARITY PARADIGM. I have warned that all the synthetic mimics of DALIO’s risk parity profiles were going to create a small door in which to exit. I am posting a podcast I recorded with Anthony Crudele on January 30, but just released this morning. Learn from actual traders, CHI GIRL and YRA HARRIS.
(more…)
Tags:Dow, NASDAQ, risk parity, SPS, synchronicity
Posted in Equity | 26 Comments »
January 4, 2018
After a sharp selloff late on December 29 the market has regained its mojo and rallied 2%. While the first two days of trading for the European markets were not confirming the S&P rally, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 rallied with the EURO STOXX 50 closing back above its 200-day moving average on Thursday. The consensus from Wall Street analysts is for emerging markets and Europe to be better alternatives to U.S. investment prospects. Many quality strategists believe the U.S. equity markets are stretched in its valuation while Europe’s recovery is gaining momentum and emerging economies should be the major beneficiary of a synchronized global expansion.
(more…)
Tags:average hourly earnings, Canadian unemployment, DAX, ECB, EU, Euro, Euro Stoxx, Eurobond, Germany, inflation, Mario Draghi, SPS, U.S. unemployment report
Posted in Canada, ECB, Europe, Fed, United States | 23 Comments »
November 29, 2017
Six weeks ago I did a podcast with Anthony Crudele and Rick Santelli about markets. I brazenly said the S&Ps would experience a 10% break before a further 3% rally. The S&Ps were at 2550 and as of this morning the 3% has been actualized long before the 10%. My respects to Rick Santelli, who was right on target with his call to purchase all equity markets for the next period of time. In true FONZI ways, I was wrong. But I have been liquidating long-held stocks into this rally and will continue to do so as I view this 23% rally since the Trump election as a great gift. If I had predicted on November 9 that the S&Ps would be 23% higher a year later, you would have had me committed.
(more…)
Tags:Angela Merkel, ECB, Emmanuel Macron, Germany, Jerome Powell, regulations, SPS
Posted in Equity, Fed, Germany | 7 Comments »