Posts Tagged ‘stress tests’

Notes From Underground: Ok, Notes From Underground, Where 2+2=5

October 2, 2012

For the almost three years that NOTES has been published, I tried to make it clear why the subtext of NFU was that 2+2=5. The idea of the math being so obviously incorrect was a direct reference from Dostoyevsky’s short story Notes From Underground in which the great Slav nationalist rails against the rationalists of the day. My use of the 2+2=5 reference is an attack on the rationalists of today, otherwise known as those dependent on sophisticated models to offer explanations for all the answers to questions in the realm of social science–economics of course being the main target. I bring this up as a reflection on the most recent stress tests of the Spanish Banks for if those literalists who think that the math in the Dostoyevsky story is wrong, then the math in the Spanish stress tests should cause one’s eyes to glaze over.


Notes From Underground: GOLD … All the appearances of a tired BULL?

March 13, 2012

Yes, the FED released its FOMC statement today and there were no changes to the FED’S POLICY NOW AND FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INTO 2014. So here was nothing to upset the markets and as I read the statement for the third time in a 15-minute period, old man thoughts turned to BUYING GOLD. As a veteran trader and subsequently global macro investor for 35 years, the price action did not perform to my satisfaction. The January 25 FOMC statement was very similar. While that FOMC missive provided for the impetus for GOLD to rally and close on its highs, the action today was totally opposite as GOLD sold off and the EQUITY MARKETS RALLIED. The January 25 release also saw the EQUITIES RALLY into the close but today the stocks left the GOLD behind.


Notes From Underground: CEBS and the ECB roll the dice and it comes up seven

July 25, 2010

The “results” of the European bank stress tests were released Friday afternoon and we learned that seven European banks failed and need to raise about €3.5 billion to meet the needed tier one capital ratios.


Notes From Underground: The Brothers GRIMM and other fairy tales

July 14, 2010

We have word from Europe that the stress tests done on their regional banks will be fair and transparent. Do we believe that to be possible? No way, no how. The stress tests will be dependent on the questions asked and if the DESIRED OUTCOME is already known, then the questions are, of course, self-fulfilling. Right or wrong, the elites of Europe are too vested in the EU project to let any genuine tests bring this “edifice” tumbling down. Helmut Kohl often opined that the major purpose of the EU was to secure the blessings of peace for its children and grandchildren. This dream will not die easily–noble ideas seldom do.