Posts Tagged ‘U.S. budget’

Notes From Underground: Let’s Enter the Fray

February 19, 2018

First, thank you to all the readers and friends who posted condolences and sent private notes on the passing of my dear brother Ralph. If you want to see his creativity, search for Dwight Ralphy on YouTube. They have provided me a laugh and reminder of how forward Ralph was as this work was created in the ’80s and ’90s.

For the past couple of days I have been reviewing market action and news stories that purportedly raised the volatility levels of equity, bond and currency markets. In my February 5 post I mentioned that the synchronized key reversals of the three major U.S. indices–Dow, Nasdaq and S&Ps–provided a backdrop that we have not experienced in many, many years. In June and August 2017, the Nasdaq 100 futures put in a weekly key reversal. An outside key reversal is when a market makes all-time highs and closes below the previous week’s low. This technical indicator has been a mainstay of the week of high quality technicians and last year’s failure of this long trusted indicator drove market seers crazy.

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Notes From Underground: A Very Slow news Weekend Unless You Are in the Middle East

April 24, 2011

The markets have been given a modicum of quiet as all ears turn ┬áto this week’s FOMC meeting. It seems that the FOMC release will be at 11:30 a.m. CST, which is an hour and forty-five minutes earlier than usual and the Bernanke meeting with the press will begin at 1:15 p.m. CST. A great deal of importance is being place on this historic first press conference. Much is also being made about the end of QE2 but I am not one of those looking for wild action when the FED stops buying Treasury debt. It seems that the FED may not announce “new” purchases but it doesn’t mean that they won’t be rolling over expiring issues and purchasing other debt in the market with the rolled over money.

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Notes From Underground: Budget Battle 2012/Presidential Election Year

April 13, 2011

Today’s headline in the Financial Times, “U.S. LACKS CREDIBILITY ON DEBT-SAY IMF.” I rarely agree with the IMF but on this issue as the readers of NOTES are aware, I can find common ground with the economists at the world’s commentator on global economics. It is easy to say the U.S. lacks credibility when the world is observing the budgetary circus that has visited Washington, D.C. for the past two weeks. The CREDIBILITY issue is not solely with the president and the legislature but also with the FEDERAL RESERVE. If the FED errs in its aggressive monetary easing it will be a horrendous blow to the U.S. and the global financial system. The FED has so much at stake because it has more than $2 trillion of DEBT INSTRUMENTS on its balance sheet and if the U.S. is deemed to be an unworthy borrower just what will the value of those assets be on the market.

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Notes From Underground: The Budget Circus is Away; Now the FED Hawks and Doves Have Their Say

April 10, 2011
Is there any level-headed individual outside the talking heads in the media who didn’t think a “compromise” would be made in the 2011 budget. The details don’t even matter for the outcome was never in doubt and the impact for the markets is less than marginal.
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