Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Dollar’

Notes From Underground: Fed Forecast — 100% Chance of a 0.25% Rate Hike

September 25, 2018

The market is absolutely, positively certain that the FOMC will increase the FED funds rate by its Greenspanian 25 basis points, although there are some Wall Street pundits suggesting the possibility of a 50 basis point hike because of the recent return of robust data. I have suggested that the FED would have done well by raising rates in a more aggressive fashion. But with the November elections within polling range, Trump’s trade policy causing angst in the emerging markets and several of U.S. trading partners, it’s looking very unlikely (less than 5 percent chance).

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Notes From Underground: Larry Kudlow, White House Eunuch

September 17, 2018

Make no mistake, Larry Kudlow is worthless as a source of financial wisdom because he wishes to be everybody’s friend. That prevents him from having a discussion about serious financial concerns. The Kudlow mantra is: Pay attention to the growth coming from the tax and regulatory reforms put in place by the Trump administration. I agree with the great need for regulatory reform, but the Kudlow mantra of “don’t worry about budget deficits because growth will take care of it” is RUBBISH. The Trump administration has increased spending while cutting taxes, which in my opinion has merely resulted in INTERTEMPORAL MISALLOCATION. The TRUMP White House has merely brought forth demand from the near future with no genuine way to pay for it. This is of course right out of the Nixon play book in which “we are all Keynesians now.”

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Notes From Underground: More Perspective In the Time Of Reflection

September 12, 2018

First, to all of those in the NOTES community who celebrate the Jewish New Year, I wish you a year of health, peace and prosperity. To those who celebrate other spiritual endeavors I offer you a wish for health, peace and prosperity. Now, to the markets. In the past month I have spent time putting issues we’ve been discussing for the last nine years into perspective. Lately, the airwaves are filled with the accolades laid upon the policy makers who SAVED CAPITALISM. Listening¬† to Paulson, Geithner and Bernanke pontificate on how they acted to save the system is enough to send me into fits of rage as the culprits who failed to act to halt the housing bubble praise themselves for the “Courage To Act.”

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Notes From Underground: Sympathy For the Devils

September 3, 2018

The world is aflame with the BLOWBACK from policies of the elites who carved a world fit to desired outcomes of a self-established ruling class. The free flow of capital in pursuit of cheap labor has led to the stagnant wages that have given rise to anti-establishment forces, which have upset the Davos crowd’s playbook. As long as capital pursues a maximization of return but is answerable to the Westphalian construct of the nation-state, there will continue to be bouts of conflict that result in less desirable outcomes for global corporations.

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Notes From Underground: Trump Moves Markets Without Moving His Fingers

August 21, 2018

The noise just keep on coming and each are disrupting the markets in its own way and the president. Monday’s headlines from the financial press had large impacts on GOLD, COPPER, EQUITIES, and, of course, CURRENCY markets. Let’s look at the substance of the comments.

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Notes From Underground: The World Is Talking Turkey

August 12, 2018

For a long time now, we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have been discussing the danger of Turkish President Erdogan in his role as a potential disruptor to stability in the Middle East. Last week’s violent action in Turkey’s stock and currency markets is just one element of the instability for which Erdogan can be held responsible.

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Notes From Underground: Chairman Powell, Ask the Wizard for Some Courage

August 1, 2018

The FOMC issued a very bland statement on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. Why did they bother convening for two days to deliver a policy statement that they phoned in last month. In my opinion, Jerome Powell missed a perfect opportunity to flex the FED‘s independent muscles by NOT RAISING RATES. The recent GDP data, inflation measures and robust jobs market provided ample evidence that the market is in need of another interest rate hike.

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Notes From Underground: Areas of Global Macro Concern

July 24, 2018

President Donald Trump’s continuous tweeting creates volatility in the markets but the impact lessens as participants become hardened to the vagaries of the tweets. An area that does concern me, though, is the amount of insider trading I suspect is taking place.

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Notes From Underground: Are We Reliving 1930?

June 25, 2018

Upon taking some time to reflect on the current state of the global macro world it seems that the most relevant are the years between 1928 and 1933. This was when the U.S. Congress was debating the famed Smoot-Hawley tariffs while the Treasury was reining in spending, and the FED was tightening liquidity and credit. While we don’t have a restricted Treasury (quite the opposite, actually), the Fed seems intent on raising rates to curtail the impact from an ill-advised fiscal stimulus at a time of 3.8% unemployment.

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Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast

May 1, 2018

While waiting for the FOMC‘s rate decision on Wednesday, I am posting a new PODCAST in which I discuss the global macro situation with a woman who whose work I had not been familiar. Nomi Prins has written a new book called Collusion, in which she investigates the role of central banks in its current predicament. I thoroughly enjoyed the 51-minute podcast as Richard Bonugli does a fine job of allowing the guests to discuss in deep detail. I will certainly be buying the book (it was released Tuesday) as it explains in detail what the central banks have accomplished in destroying the signalling mechanisms of capitalism and markets. The Financial Repression Authority has been an important platform for allowing deep discussion on matters of global investment concerns. Enjoy the discussion as I await my readers feedback on the issues we covered and hope it will lead to profitable trade opportunities.

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