Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Dollar’

Notes From Underground: The Politics of the IMF and French Election

April 19, 2017

First, I am reposting part of the January 29 post as a reminder to pay attention to the narrative of Trump rolling back to the concept of Pax Americana. As the Trump administration begins to reveal its ambitions, there is a great deal of conversation about Trump becoming more presidential and that the “grown ups” are taking charge of policy. The demotion of Stephen Bannon ignited a discussion about the Wall Street crowd (Mnuchin, Ross, Cohn, Kushner) becoming aligned with the “Deep State.” The concept of the deep state is really the power of the entrenched bureaucracy as the primary source within the beltway.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Treasury Takes a softer Approach to Global Monetary Affairs

April 16, 2017

On Friday April 14 Treasury released a report that deemed no major trading a currency manipulator but five countries have met two of the three criteria and therefore will be closely monitored. This report is very well laid out but it is not incendiary as it seeks to persuade with a very soft touch. The three criteria of meeting of being a “manipulator” are:

      1. A significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.of a least $20 billion;
      2. S current account surplus is at least 3% of a nations GDP; and
      3. Persistent, one-sided intervention occurs when net purchases of foreign currency are conducted repeatedly and total at least 2% of a nation’s GDP in a 12-month period.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Trump Delivers on Using the Dollar as a Policy Tool

April 12, 2017

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, the tweeter-in-chief was reported to have said, “The DOLLAR IS GETTING TOO STRONG.” As some pundits discussed, instead of Trump calling China a currency manipulator it seems he wants to use the dollar as a cudgel to pressure others into not embarking on policies to weaken their currencies. As I wrote on April 2:

“The Trump Administration’s efforts to curb the U.S. trade deficit may see the executive branch try to depreciate the U.S. dollar if Secretary Mnuchin and Secretary Ross fail to persuade certain global actors to embark upon policies to adjust their current account and trade surpluses. The Fed’s recent tightening has not rallied the dollar–it actually closed lower on the quarter–so if the political status quo is sustained in Europe and no new political crisis emerges, the DOLLAR will become a barometer of Trump’s policies on trade.”

(more…)

Notes From Underground: The Second Quarter Begins

April 2, 2017

First, let me apologize to my readers. I erred when I said Marine Le Pen made it to the second round of the 2012 French presidential election. Reader Al 13 corrected me. It was her father Jean-Marie Le Pen who made it to the second round in 2002 and got trounced, garnering 18% of the vote to Jacque Chirac’s 82%. But read Al 13’s comment on the previous post because he notes that if the second round were to be a choice between Le Pen and one of the two far-left candidates–Melenchon or Hamon–the impact would be highly volatile for European markets.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Switzerland Was Named The Fourth-Happiest Country

March 22, 2017

In an inane study of the world’s countries by the U.N. and released on World Happiness Day (what an absurd concept) the land locked nation with its active printing press was heralded as ranking FOURTH while the U.S. fell to 14th. To paraphrase Tolstoy: Happy countries are all alike; every unhappy country is unhappy in its own way. On March 17 Bloomberg ran a story, “Swiss National Bank (SNB) Foreign Reserves Soar, Signaling Interventions.” In February the SNB’s reserves increased by 3.8% to 668.2 billion francs, “the biggest increase since December 2014.”

(more…)

Notes From Underground: What Was Learned From Draghi and Yellen

March 20, 2017

In reviewing the March 9 ECB and March 15 FOMC meetings, the press conferences emceed by President Mario Draghi and Chair Yellen revealed little but raised questions about serious issues confronting the world’s two key central banks. The ECB maintained its current policy and will scale pack monthly QE activity to 60 billion euros starting April 1 while keeping its deposit rate at NEGATIVE 40 basis points. Draghi bowed deep and heaped praise upon himself and his fellow board members by proclaiming that they saved the EU and the euro. Draghi said “without a single currency there could not be a single market.” It was Draghi’s July 2012 speech of “we will do whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, which saved the currency and logically means the ECB saved the EU.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: FRA Podcast Replay (January 29)

March 19, 2017

It has been a month since I last wrote. My hiatus was inadvertently extended as Ecclesiastes certainly entered my personal life. My sister Joyce suddenly passed away, which caused me to slow my mind and reflect on many things. Losing your baby sister will  cause one to ponder, or as it was said in Cool Hand Luke: “When a man’s mother dies and he gets to thinking rabbit and running, a night in the box.” So I have put myself in a mental box. However, I have also experienced the birth of my second grandson, thus to every season a time and purpose.

During the seven-plus years I have been writing Notes From Underground I have shared many life-changing moments with my extended family of readers. So it is with a renewed spirit and laser focus thoughts that I embark on analyzing the global-macro world in search of profitable trades and investments. The FRA podcast I posted January 29 (click the highlighted text) is a renewal of this year’s focus on crafting the NOTES narrative. There has been much in the way of global political events during my hiatus but I will refer to some as significant in various aspects as we proceed.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: CNBC Santelli Exchange, February 21

February 24, 2017

During my hiatus, I spoke with Rick Santelli (click on the image below) to discuss some of the new issues presenting investment opportunities, in addition to concerns surrounding potential negative fallout from ill-conceived models, such as the effect of the border adjustment tax on the global financial system.

Yra and Rick, February 21, 201 6

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Just a Song Before I Go

February 14, 2017

We had to get back home

And when we opened up the door

 I had to be alone
Notes From Underground will be taking a short break. I will be relaxing unless something major breaks, in which I will chime in with commentary. I will also be reissuing previous blogs related to Greece and the IMF from these dates:
July 20, 2011
November 9, 2011
November 26, 2012
May 26, 2015
Every now and then I like to revisit the 1,200 or so blogs I have written since December 2009 and take a measure of their relevance in today’s world. WordPress has a high quality archive so my readers can scroll back and look to see where we have traveled since the inception of Notes From Underground.
Now, let’s look at Tuesday’s testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen before the Senate Banking Committee, as well as other news tidbits.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Let’s Look at Global Yield Curves

February 7, 2017

One of the most important indicators for financial markets is yield curves. They are predictive as they have historically shown coming economic turmoil, or, more importantly, the end of a business cycle. The severity of any recession depends on the amount of debt that has preceded the onset of an economic slowdown. I will remind readers that before the 2007-08 financial crisis, the U.S. 2/10 curve actually INVERTED to NEGATIVE SIX BASIS POINTS. Some financial pundits like to cynically advise consumers that the STOCK markets have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions, but that is not so with yield curves. The difficulty with the signalling mechanism of yield curves is predicting the time for even during the GREAT RECESSION equity markets continued to rally even as the curve flattened.

(more…)