There was another round of somewhat positive unemployment data on Friday. The U.S. release was tepid but juxtaposed with the Canada data it would seem robust. The Canadian jobs number was dismal on its face as 213,000 jobs were lost and the unemployment rate jumped to 9.4% from 8.6%, although a slight increase was expected (around 8.9%). The U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 6.3% from 6.7% with a slight gain in nonfarm payroll of 49,000, although much of that was in public sector employment. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% but of greater interest was the increase in average hours worked, which reached a highest in history according to the Liscio report at 35 hours.
Posts Tagged ‘U.S. nonfarm payrolls’
Notes From Underground: At the Fed, Jobs is Priority Number One
February 7, 2021Notes From Underground: Courting Disaster
May 10, 2020Friday’s unemployment report was as bad as forecast and probably worse. Yes, the unemployment rate was not as high as suspected but once the data was analyzed it appears the actual number was close to 20%. The most problematic data point going forward is the AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE). The jobs report revealed a historic 4.7% monthly increase but this was for the worst reason.
Notes From Underground: Not Such Benign Neglect for the Payrolls Report
December 9, 2018In what appeared to be a “soft” unemployment report, the equity markets discarded the traditional Goldilocks response to weaker data and spent the entire session in sell mode. That sent the S&Ps to a 4.5% LOSS for the week. The BULLS are in trouble for the market rejected what was regarded as POSITIVE news and continued the 11-week long correction. The G-20, “dovish” FED and softer data were cast aside as new negative stories, like the arrest of a significant Chinese business leader and the Mueller investigation closing in on the president. OPEC’s agreed cut in oil production sent crude oil prices moderately higher on Friday, which would have given a boost to the S&Ps as energy stocks would have been bid in past occasions.
Notes From Underground: A Guide For The Perplexed? (Maimonides)
June 4, 2017Friday’s unemployment data showed the addition of 138,000 jobs, weaker than the ADP report. Even though the RATE dropped to 4.3% the all-important average hourly earnings rose by a tepid 0.2% and April’s data was lowered by a tenth of a percentage point. Many readers e-mailed me as to why the S&Ps and NASDAQ continued to rally in the face of weak economic news from the U.S. The BOND rally made sense as investors continued to cover short positions, but what is perplexing is the continued strength in the precious metals and the currencies despite a strong U.S. equity market.
Notes From Underground: Before I Depart for Much-Needed Rest…
February 8, 2015I’m taking a two-week hiatus as it is time to contemplate the massive volatility we have experienced during the past three months. The rise in vol was no surprise as the world financial and political landscape has been rife with uncertainty for several years. Central bank actions have lulled financial markets into complacency, though turbulence underlies the surface of calm. In the past three weeks we have experienced the Swiss National Bank removing its EUR/CHF PEG and sending currency markets into a whirl of uncertainty. (Plus, the generation of huge losses on long-held short Swiss franc positions.) More importantly, the SNB decision wreaked havoc on European banks that had financed loans in Swiss francs because of the ultra-low interest rates.
Notes From Underground: A Quick Note On Tomorrow’s Unemployment
June 5, 2014Post-ECB the U.S. employment report will be of minimal importance. The market is expecting a 210,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), a modest rise after April’s larger than expected 288,000 increase. The unemployment rate is guesstimated to rise to 6.4% from 6.3%. More importantly, the average hourly earnings is estimated to rise 0.2% after last month’s flat number. The wage gains are now the most important piece of data as the Yellen Fed has more than hinted that stagnant wages have been a perennial drag of consumer demand. It is better for wages to rise than demand to remain tepid. If wages were to outpace inflation it would act to stimulate domestic consumption.
Notes From Underground: Are the French Kicking the Hornet’s Nest?
May 6, 2013First, the unemployment report offered no surprises as the market was close to the actual release. The real surprise was in the upward revisions to the February and March numbers. The negative surprise was the average work week shrinking by 0.2% of an hour. The shorter work week may be an aberration but it may mean that employers are cutting workers hours so as to keep under the Affordable Care Act mandates, but I caution it is far too early to say that this is definitely occurring. The BOND markets reacted negatively to the “stronger” jobs data and the 10-year note future fell as yields rose by 10 basis points. Investors bought stocks and seemingly sold bonds in a performance of risk-on/risk-off. Again, one day’s action does not a trend make. The pure risk-on/risk-off paradigm has been dormant for quite a while and let’s hope it stays that way.
Notes From Underground: Kuroda Sings Karaoke … “We Didn’t Start The Fire”
April 7, 2013Yes, the U.S. and Canadian unemployment data were well below market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls in the U.S. were half of the consensus number and under the 110,000 NFP that we wanted to see so as to test the resolve of the recent equity market rally. Not only were the jobs created numbers weak–manufacturing actually lost jobs–but the important average hourly earnings were flat (0.2% increase expected) so there is no growth in consumer spending potential. As poor as the data release was, by day’s end the SPOO and DOW rallied well off the lows made early in the day. The impact from poor economic fundamentals was not strong enough to overcome the continued release of central bank liquidity into the global economy.
Notes From Underground: The Reign of Terror is Over as Maximilien Robespierre TRICHET is Slain
November 3, 2011Today the new President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, established himself as a true leader and moved to undo the damage of the über arrogant Jean Claude Trichet. The two rate increases in the last six months by the European bank were an overshoot of mammoth proportions as the peripherals were in the midst of a severe credit crisis and moving toward austerity budgets. Spain, which maybe in the worst condition of all–21.5% unemployment and a deflating housing market–was not in need of a EURIBOR increase as its mortgage rates float in reference to the bank rate. If Trichet did not understand the depths of the credit crisis then he should have never been the ECB president. It was always reported that the ECB decisions were unanimous, but today’s move by Draghi indicates that Mr. Trichet rode roughshod over the bank’s policy making for it was reported that it was a 25 basis point decision by unanimous consent.