I’ve been away minding my two Floridian grandsons (exhausting yet delightful). I did, however, have time to catch up on some reading, particularly W.E.B. Du Bois’s “Suppression of the African Slave Trade,” as recommended by Chris Whalen. Du Bois looks at how the large state-domiciled banks helped finance the importation of African black slaves. This is high quality prose written in 1896, a well documented and enlightening read about the politics of America at its early beginnings. We could all stand to learn from a genuine scholar rather than shouting at each other.
Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Treasuries’
Notes From Underground: Are You Ready When Delta Is?
July 19, 2021Notes From Underground: To Russia With Love (Or Blinken Blinked)
May 23, 2021Ten days ago, we published a blog post titled, “Sanctions Are Sanctimonious.” And lo and behold, this past week the U.S. moved to remove sanctions on the completion of the NORDSTREAM 2 pipeline, allowing Russian gas to flow freely and readily into Germany without paying the massive transit fees to the Ukraine. This is the culmination of the project promoted by previous German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.This story is huge for it shows that the world is — as NOTES portrays it — far more dynamic than the static analysts would have us believe.
Notes From Underground: Does the Market Care About Forward Guidance?
February 21, 2021Forward guidance is a key tool in the Federal Reserve’s arsenal, promoted in a speech long ago by Columbia University professor Michael Woodford at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In a previous communication, the central bank said, “Forward guidance is a tool that central banks use to provide communication to the public about the likely course of monetary policy.”
This tool allows the FED to establish a time-directed path for interest rates so that the MARKET does not suffer shocks from an upward surprise move in rates.
Notes From Underground: MMT Is Gaining Velocity
March 5, 2019We at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have discussed the issue of MODERN MONETARY THEORY. Now, the battle lines are drawn over the possibilities of a benign outcome to the practical basis of the so-called printing press. Yes, the simplification of MMT bothers its disciples, but the printing press is in essence what the theory purports to avow: Don’t worry about debt, because enough money flooding the system will not push interest rates higher but rather lower as banks take on massive reserves to put out the bid that’s pushing interest rates persistently lower.
Notes From Underground: Central Bank Palooza
July 30, 2018Coming on the heels of my first Kenny Chesney concert I am viewing the synchronicity of central banks as a reflection of the rhythms of global financial repression. Last Thursday, the ECB issued its last statement before the summer recess, while this week we have the Bank of Japan tonight, the FED on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.
Notes From Underground: If Gross, Gundlach and Even Buffet Are Correct, Then THE FED IS WRONG
May 5, 2015The last seven weeks has brought out the bond bears in the forms of Bill Gross, Jeff Gundlach and also well-known stock picker and financial wizard, Warren Buffett. While Gundlach and Gross were very bearish on the European sovereign debt markets, the Omaha denizen opined on how stocks may be rich but bonds offer a terrible risk/reward return. Large bond investors are nervous that they have possibly bought an overvalued asset and may experience sizable losses on a quarter-to-quarter to basis. The problem for pensions, insurance companies and those saddled with a defined payout obligation, the FED and other central banks have broken the bond market as a value barometer so it is very difficult to match assets with potential liabilities.
Notes From Underground: Thursday, January 22 … “The Day The Earth Stood Still”
January 21, 2015In the famous 1951 sci-fi movie, an alien with a ROBOT has the power to threaten the entire Earth and bring human civilization to an end. The only words that can prevent the ROBOT (algorithms) from the total destruction of the world are: KLAATU BARADA NIKTO. Let’s hope that tomorrow ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI has those same words at his command. There is so much riding on tomorrow’s ECB decision and the press conference that Mr. Draghi can bring financial ruin to the global money system. In all prior press conferences Draghi has been able to calm markets with mere promises of future actions. The game of securing time in an effort for improved economic performance is over.
Notes From Underground: The Germans Were the Target of IMF, G-20 Animosity
October 13, 2014Germany was the issue at the IMF and G-20 meetings as all nations suffering economic headwinds delivered harsh criticism of Angela Merkel, Wolfgang Schaueble and, of course, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann. It was Germany’s continued emphasis on budget restructuring and fiscal soundness that was holding back Europe and resulting in global economic challenges. France can’t grow because the Germans insists on the French authorities bringing their budget down to the prescribed 3 percent of the Maastricht Treaty. The peripheral nations are saddled with private and public sector debt that is not serviceable during times of economic stagnation.
Notes From Underground: Good Trading Advances One Funeral At A Time (Thanks, Max Planck)
July 23, 2013When Max Planck opined that “Science Advances One Funeral At A Time” it is believed that he meant that when proponents of long-held theories die, science is allowed to advance. In terms of trading I have applied this to mean that long-held losing trades have died a death due to lack of liquidity to support a flawed analysis. The BOND MARKET is going to provide the opportunity to put the wit of Planck to work as we try to examine the ways in which the FED will deal with the vast amount of reserves with which it has flooded the financial system. As traders and investors, the FED‘s decisions will impact the entire spectrum of the GLOBAL MACRO WORLD. Therefore, it is time to embark on thinking about ways the FED can remove reserves in the least disruptive and to anticipate what plans the central bank may have.
Notes From Underground: A Dog Day of Summer
July 9, 2013The news was sparse and the rally was easy: DOLLAR UP, SPOOS UP, TREASURIES STEADY … HO HUM. It won’t stay that way tomorrow as we will have the 10-year note auction, followed by the release of the June FOMC Minutes an hour later. At 3:10 p.m. CST, Ben Bernanke will take center stage at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and it will be about monetary policy as the FED “basks in the light” of its 100-year anniversary. The speech takes place in Cambridge, Mass. and a Q&A follows the prepared text. Markets will be on edge to see if Chairman Bernanke pulls back some of the talk on tapering or at least responds to the recent volatility of rate rises in the long-end of the market.