Last week the world’s bond markets experienced an assault propagated by the MISERABLE U.S. five-year Treasury note auction on Wednesday followed by a more dismal seven-year sale on Thursday. Also, the Australian and KIWI 10-year notes suffered massive bouts of volatility even as the RBA and RBNZ intervened with more QE to stem the rise on the long end. We at Notes From Underground have warned that the markets were attacking the FORWARD GUIDANCE motivations of the world’s monetary authorities by attacking the long end of the yield curve as the area of least resistance because central bank asset purchases around the world have been targeted at debt instruments of much shorter duration.
Posts Tagged ‘U.S. Treasury Market’
Notes From Underground: Bonds Talking Trash To the Central Banks
February 28, 2021Notes From Underground: Extra! Extra! Read All About It
February 11, 2021On Wednesday, FEDERAL RESERVE Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized, yet again, that he and the FOMC believe UNEMPLOYMENT in real terms using its broad measure is about 10%. The recent release of labor statistics revealed a 6.3% unemployment rate but Powell stressed in his Q&A at Economic Club of New York that “the statistic doesn’t capture the full extent of labor market slack.” Bloomberg’s Craig Torres finally gave credence to the idea that Jerome Powell is focused on ending the present disparity between minority and white employment as Powell used FED data to clarify the black unemployment rate was 9.2% versus 5.7%.
Notes From Underground: This Market Is a Tribute to Rudyard Kipling’s “IF”
June 25, 2013“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you”
The opening stanza of Kipling’s poem about British stoutness is not to say others are blaming but rather an admonition from Notes From Underground about keeping your wits about you and trying to make quality decisions in trying times. In a financial world that is steeped in excess leverage, nanoseconds and algorithmic trading programs ,being a fundamental/technical trader seeking relative value becomes a daunting task. I am not one who favors catching “falling pianos” and have been more content to let trades come to make rather than force the action. As the markets unwind leveraged trades that causes massive selling across all asset classes.
Notes From Underground: Unemployment Gains Manufacturing a Recovery
February 5, 2012The Obama administration had much to cheer as the NONFARM PAYROLL number exceeded almost all the pundits and FED‘s projections. Just before the release, CNBC analysts were in herd formation all gathered around the “BULL” of safety and predicted around a 100,000 job gain. Job gains came in at roughly 250,000 even as state and local governments continued to shed employees. Earlier, the Canadian data was tepid, but again, the Ontario manufacturing sector added jobs and is mirroring the increase in manufacturing seen in the U.S. Whether the predictors of the release are right or wrong makes no difference to traders or investors for the most important pundit is the market’s reaction.
Notes From Underground: The Chines raise interest rates and the GOLD makes all-time highs climbing a GREAT WALL OF WORRY
April 5, 2011The FED released the minutes of the last FOMC meeting and there was very little that hadn’t already been revealed and digested by the market. In tonight’s reading, some in the media are trying to raise an issue that there is a rift between voting members. Readers of the NOTES will know the answer: There is no rift. Yes, between meetings there is a plethora of dissenting speeches but as the FOMC MINUTES are clear to record, the vote to stay the present course was unanimous. The thing that seems the most transitory to the FED is the lack of dissension when gathered at the same table. To paraphrase PUDD’NHEAD WILSON, WHEN ALL THE EGGHEADS ARE IN ONE ROOM, WATCH THE ROOM CLOSELY.