At the end of 2017, my readers may recall that I did an unusual thing. I made a prognostication as where the 10-year yield will end the year. I said the 10-year would end the year at 3.41 percent, to which a friend offered up a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon if the rate reached that level. (The yield was 2.60 percent at the time.) Well, I’m throwing in the towel as it looks like 3.26 percent looks to be the top for the year. I guess I will have to enjoy a lesser-quality libation.
Posts Tagged ‘U.S. unemployment report’
Notes From Underground: Bye, Bye Pappy Van Winkle
December 6, 2018Notes From Underground: The Same Old Song, With a different Beat (Since 2017 Be Gone)
January 4, 2018After a sharp selloff late on December 29 the market has regained its mojo and rallied 2%. While the first two days of trading for the European markets were not confirming the S&P rally, the DAX and Euro Stoxx 50 rallied with the EURO STOXX 50 closing back above its 200-day moving average on Thursday. The consensus from Wall Street analysts is for emerging markets and Europe to be better alternatives to U.S. investment prospects. Many quality strategists believe the U.S. equity markets are stretched in its valuation while Europe’s recovery is gaining momentum and emerging economies should be the major beneficiary of a synchronized global expansion.
Notes From Underground: Draghi to Bundesbank President Weidmann … KLAATU BARADA NIKTO
May 2, 2013The last two days has seen two of the world’s key central banks deliver fresh interest rate decisions and there was very little in way of surprises. In a salute to the philosopher Isiah Berlin, I have noted that Chairman Bernanke is a HEDGEHOG and President Draghi a FOX. A hedgehog is one who “views the world through a single defining idea.” The economy is slowing, unemployment is high, inflation is low, so it is appropriate for the FED to buy and continue buying Treasury debt. You say it is not having the desired effect? Buy more. In yesterday’s FOMC statement, the FED noted that “… FISCAL POLICY IS RESTRAINING ECONOMIC GROWTH.” The meaning of this is that Washington is acting irresponsibly, thus the FED needs to possibly INCREASE its bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases. Whatever it is, QE IS THE ANSWER.