Posts Tagged ‘U.S. yield curve’

Notes From Underground: How To Deal With Transitory Data

March 18, 2021

First, thank you to allĀ  who filled in for me as I spent nine full days packing up my life in Chicago. Raising four children and being the repository for many of my loved ones “stuff” resulted in a drowning in memories as well as material possessions that raised questions about what the HELL was that for and why? Our last post was March 1 but I am proud to point out that there were about 74 comments on that entry, all but mine being extremely valuable. Thank you to all for the way you raised the bar for discourse even higher.

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Notes From Underground: Central Banks Driving Us to Drink

February 18, 2021

Last week I chatted with Richard Bonugli and Europeans Godfrey Bloom and Claudio Grass. It is worth a listen — with your favorite libation, of course — as we moved from politics to the macro global picture in full. There was a great deal of discussion about the SNB with Claudio Grass and that is enough for all of us to drink.

Click here to listen to the podcast.

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Notes From Underground: The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow

January 19, 2021

Say goodbye to Daddy Warbucks Say hello to Uncle Joe.

On Monday we got a preview of the Biden Administration as Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen appeared before the Senate Finance Committee. It was sad that her testimony was released over the weekend. There were the stock answers to the issue of the U.S. dollar, which falls under the auspices of the Treasury Department. Yellen proclaimed that the markets would set the value of the DOLLAR and that it would not be the policy of the Biden Administration to manipulate the currency to attain some illusionary trade advantage.

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Notes From Underground: Thursday In the Park With Louis Gave

January 10, 2021

I had the pleasure of sitting down with Louis Gave last week and we discussed many of the pressing issues facing the global macro world. In May 2020, Richard Bonugli provided the FRA platform as a place to discuss the global outlook with a little bit of FORESIGHT. We HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK. Hopefully, our most recent analysis will provide similar investment outcomes and maybe succeed in clarifying some important issues facing the investment community as 2021 begins.

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Notes From Underground: Mr. Powell, the Spotlight Was On You

March 21, 2018

Dear Jerome, You handled Wednesday’s press conference with great alacrity as most of the media tossed ridiculous softball inquiries, following the road map of the dot plots. The summary of economic projections needs to be tossed on the trash heap of academic pabulum. You almost got to that point as the non-financial media kept questioning the decision about three or four rate hikes. You correctly stated that the only decision that the FOMC made today was to RAISE the fed funds range to 1.5%-1.75 % and that the DOT PLOTS were only forecasts and not decisions. Chairman Powell actually got miffed when a reporter began citing the 2020 projections.

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Notes From Underground: Greeks Need to be Aware of Frenchmen Bearing Gifts

February 19, 2013

In the London Telegraph, it was reported that French President Hollande visited Greece in an effort to show solidarity with the Greek people in pledging to support growth over austerity. The French leader told the Greeks that the French would “help with privatizations, tourism and a public sector overhaul.” Hollande also urged French investment into devastated Greek businesses. In direct opposition to October’s visit by German Chancellor Merkel, the French President proclaimed, “The Greek people have has as much as they can take.” While I would not disagree about the Greek citizenry being pushed to the limit through austerity budgets and tax increases, be assured that Hollande’s public show of support is all about trying to gain as much support as possible in his coming battle with the Germans.

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Notes From Underground: FOR CHAIRMAN BERNANKE — WHEN DID MONETARY POLICY BECOME THE LABORATORY OF ACADEMIC THEORISTS?

September 13, 2012

First, as I read the FOMC statement, it was painfully obvious that the impact of the Michael Woodford piece found willing adherents in the bowels of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The FED’s language: “IF THE OUTLOOK FOR THE LABOR MARKET DOES NOT IMPROVE SUBSTANTIALLY, the committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities …” Further, in a direct BOW to Woodford: “The committee expects that a HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE OF MONETARY POLICY WILL REMAIN APPROPRIATE FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME AFTER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY STRENGTHENS.”

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