Posts Tagged ‘U.S. yield curves’
February 21, 2021
Forward guidance is a key tool in the Federal Reserve’s arsenal, promoted in a speech long ago by Columbia University professor Michael Woodford at the Jackson Hole Symposium. In a previous communication, the central bank said, “Forward guidance is a tool that central banks use to provide communication to the public about the likely course of monetary policy.”
This tool allows the FED to establish a time-directed path for interest rates so that the MARKET does not suffer shocks from an upward surprise move in rates.
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Tags:Axel Weber, Federal Reserve, forward guidance, inflation, U.S. Treasuries, U.S. yield curves, yield curve control
Posted in Debt Market, Fed | 17 Comments »
December 13, 2020
There two issues whose headlines are creating intraday volatility: Brexit and Congressional tweets surrounding another covid stimulus package (or not). As it stands, so many workers are struggling due to job losses — though no fault of their own — and small businesses are trying to keep their doors open.
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Tags:Brexit, covid stimulus, ECB, Fed, U.S. yield curves, yield curve control
Posted in Debt Market, ECB, Fed, UK, United States | 38 Comments »
December 29, 2019
As we approach 2020, it seems as though the financial world is unconcerned about the dramatic increase in DEBT. Yes, the airwaves are alive with news of the extremely low level of mortgage delinquencies but fail to discuss the growing delinquency of 90-day auto loans and the $1.5 trillion pile of student loan debt, an albatross for college graduates over the 20 years. Corporate debt has increased by the magic of financial engineering in which share buybacks and dividend increases are greased with the benevolence of central banks caught in a trap of their design.
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Tags:Debt, European Union, Federal Reserve, Gold, monetary policy, Nordstream 2 Pipeline, Russia, tariffs, U.S., U.S. Dollar, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Fed, Gold, United States | 29 Comments »
March 20, 2019
Wednesday’s FOMC statement and press conference was as dovish as we have heard in many moons. More importantly, the VOTE WAS UNANIMOUS. Even Kansas City Fed President Esther George voted with the group. Why was this dovish?
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Tags:balance sheet, Federal Reserve, global economy, Gold, Jerome Powell, slowing growth, SPS, U.S. Dollar, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Currency, Debt Market, Fed, United States | 17 Comments »
March 7, 2019
ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference was, once again, another act of flim-flam as he PIVOTED away from any tightening for the next [FILL IN THE YEAR]. There was NO SURPRISE as the TLTRO was well telegraphed various news outlets in recent weeks. What’s amazing is that the currency markets were surprised by Draghi’s press conference as the U.S. DOLLAR staged a sizable rally, reaching its highest level in more than three months. The YEN was stronger as the weak stock markets provided a sense of Japanese repatriation of invested capital, while GOLD performed dismally.
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Tags:ECB, Euro, Fed, Gold, Jerome Powell, Mario Draghi, nonfarm payrolls, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Currency, ECB, Gold | 11 Comments »
December 6, 2018
At the end of 2017, my readers may recall that I did an unusual thing. I made a prognostication as where the 10-year yield will end the year. I said the 10-year would end the year at 3.41 percent, to which a friend offered up a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon if the rate reached that level. (The yield was 2.60 percent at the time.) Well, I’m throwing in the towel as it looks like 3.26 percent looks to be the top for the year. I guess I will have to enjoy a lesser-quality libation.
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Tags:10-year yield, average hourly earnings, Bank of Canada, Canada unemployment report, China, oil, Opec, U.S. unemployment report, U.S. yield curves, Yuan
Posted in BOC, Canada, Oil, United States | 5 Comments »
July 10, 2018
There are storms brewing but for the moment markets are stuck in the Doldrums waiting for the winds to increase in velocity. The issues confronting the market are all too familiar as NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has been categorizing for the previous months.
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Tags:China, copper, emerging markets, NATO summit, Russia, tariffs, U.S. yield curves
Posted in China, copper, Debt Market, Fed, Russia, United States | 20 Comments »
July 1, 2018
Now that the first six months of the year have come and gone, the markets have a cacophony of events to look forward to as algos react to price, and fundamental macro analysts are trapped between WHAT OUGHT TO BE. The current concerns over tariffs, trade wars, strife between friends/allies, political uncertainty in Europe, Middle East conflagrations, the Russia/Saudi alliance on energy, Chinese growth concerns, RISING U.S. INTEREST RATES AND INCREASED QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING (along with elevated TREASURY FUNDING NEEDS), decrease in capital inflows into emerging market economies leading to potential dollar funding concerns and U.S. Congressional elections. Yet, the markets remain are not pricing in the relevance of such concerns. Wise traders and investors do not fight markets but profit from the opportunities presented. To do otherwise is mere commentary. So to paraphrase John Maynard Keynes: When the facts change so do I, what do you do madam?
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Tags:China, emerging markets, Europe, Fed, Gold, Middle East, oil, QE, tariffs, trade wars, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Debt Market | 23 Comments »
April 24, 2018
The concentration of the media on round numbers is going to drive me to drink that bottle of Pappy Van Winkle. In true philosophical inquiry, round numbers never fit in the square pegs of the unbalanced thinking at Notes From Underground. In Tuesday’s post I am going to run through several points that I’ve mentioned over the past several months. All of these issues will have some relation to the developing narrative that we are experiencing in the markets:
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Tags:10-year yield, ETFs, EU, Fed, President Macron, trade, U.S. yield curves
Posted in Debt Market, Fed | 16 Comments »