John Maynard Keynes’ critical theory said in times of uncertainty economic actors tend to save more, which leads to a negative feedback loop that slows the economy as demand shrinks. This is why governments need to increase fiscal stimulus to boost demand. It’s too bad that President Trump doesn’t exercise the paradox of thrift when it comes to WORDS. Let there be no mistake: We at NOTES have been expecting a response from Trump like this.
Posts Tagged ‘U.S.’
Notes From Underground: When the Paradox Of Thrift Doesn’t Apply
August 25, 2019Notes From Underground: Mexico Tariffs Suffer From the Three Ills
June 2, 2019And what might those be, you ask? Ill-conceived. Ill-timed. Ill-advised.
Notes From Underground: Back to What’s Driving Markets
May 8, 2019We have all been bogged down with tweets coming from the White House about China. Because high-speed traders force us to parse the messages and assess the immediate impact on the markets, we’re hostage to President Trump’s tariff policy. The bottom line is that Robert Lighthizer is left to inform the world when China will acquiesce to the U.S.’s demand for reliable and hardened enforcement mechanisms to solidify any genuine agreement. From my perspective, the critical point on global markets is that once China/U.S. trade agreement is done the president will set his sights on targeting the ENORMOUS TRADE IMBALANCE that favors Germany.
Notes From Underground: Making Sense Of the Jabberwocky
May 7, 2019Fans of Lewis Carroll should know the whimsical poem from Alice in Wonderland that comes across as complete NONSENSE. The collection of tweets from the White House is the modern day version of the Jabberwocky. On Friday Trump tweeted about how well the talks were going with Chinese and that they were close to completion with a positive outcome. So between that and a strong jobs number, the U.S. equity markets had much to celebrate
Notes From Underground: Quick Note on Friday’s Jobs Report
April 4, 2019On Friday we have U.S. and Canadian employment. The Canadian report is important because Canada is an important trading partner of the U.S. so any slowing in Canadian employment may reflect of slowing cross-border trade. The consensus is for Canada to have a DECLINE of 10,000 jobs with the unemployment rate holding at 5.8 percent. From a global perspective, Canada is a good look at the continuing narrative about slowing global economy, which is significant as the New Zealand, Australian, European and Japanese central banks have used the slowing global economy as the reason for maintaining their current accommodative monetary policies. The Canadian dollar has been weak versus many of the key currencies so weak jobs should put more pressure on the Canadian dollar.
Notes From Underground: Irony of Irony
November 15, 2018President Donald Trump maintains that the Facebook, Google, Twitter bias is the “real collusion” … oh wait, he tweeted that. Seriously, nobody spots the irony?!? Every day, this madness infects the algorithmic condition of the markets. I prefer real intelligence instead of artificial intelligence for genuine intellect understands nuance and irony. (Again, this is not a political statement as we analyze all aspects of politics in an effort to secure profits in global financial, commodity, currency and equity markets.) As Deng Xiaoping would say: “It doesn’t matter whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches mice.”
It has been more than a week since the last blog post. As Trump’s inner Nixon spills outs, we will continue to monitor the idea of a MASSIVE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE effort, especially since there’s a G-20 meeting in Buenos Aires the weekend of November 30.
Notes From Underground: How Do You Say Chutzpah in Chinese (Or G-7: Part II)
May 25, 2016As I begin my further analysis of the unfolding political/economic factors facing the global markets I seek your indulgence and set the table by quoting from what I believe is one of the most significant chapters in western literature. Notes From Underground takes its title from the essay of the same name of by Fyodor Dostoyevsky. The tagline, 2+2=5, is a summation by Dostoyevsky to poke at the Rationalists of his day. But the chapter of note is from the novel The Brothers Karamazov titled, “The Grand Inquisitor.” The scene is set as the Grand Inquisitor has arrested the Christ figure for daring to upset the social order that the Church has created. The entire chapter is so moving but allow me to quote a small part:
Notes From Underground: “It Was the Best of Times. It Was the Worst of Times”
December 28, 2014As 2014 draws to a close, the financial landscape is definitely a tale of two disparate economies as the U.S. reports 5 percent GDP while Europe struggles to maintain zero growth and avoid “recession.” (I despise the official definition of a recession being two consecutive quarters of negative growth.) In Spain, Italy, Greece Portugal, France and other countries, double-digit unemployment defines a recession and the potential it brings for political turmoil.
Notes From Underground: Siemens Fertilizes Its Relations With Russia
March 27, 2014First, on the geopolitical front the enforcement of sanctions on Russia is being met with disdain by some large European corporations. French energy giant Total is in talks with the largest privately held Russian energy company Lukoil to develop gas and oil fields using the latest drilling techniques. On Wednesday, Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser met directly with Russian President Putin and assured him that Siemens will not let temporal political problems upset the solid business relationship that the German conglomerate has developed with Russian technology and medical groups. The use of sanctions is problematic in a world defined by business interests. The German small and medium enterprises have vast business relations with Russia and it is estimated that 500,000 jobs are related to the export side of the equation. Russia sends energy and Germany responds with advanced, highly engineered products.
Notes From Underground: Are the Sanctionists Playing Russian Roulette With the U.S. Global Financial Position?
March 25, 2014The theme of this blog has been and will continue to be that nothing is as it seems on the surface. In an effort to be as non-partisan as possible, a question arises over the G-7’s immediacy to place sanctions on Putin’s pals as retribution for Russia’s aggression on the Ukraine and Crimea. The use of sanctions under the control of the U.S. Treasury Department and its potential harmful effects on any nation’s economy forces the question: Why would global financial entities desire to do business in dollars or with U.S. domiciled financial institutions? Any time that the U.S. government questions the foreign policy demands of another country, will sanctions be the initial response? If China tomorrow chooses a military response to the issue of the Senkaku Islands, would the U.S. push for sanctions against Chinese financial institutions out of respect for the U.S. alliance with Japan?
