Posts Tagged ‘unemployment rate’

Notes From Underground: Forward Guidance Takes a Step Backward

October 22, 2013

Today the markets received the long-awaited data on the U.S. job situation and the major beneficiary seemed to be the HFT algorithms that had the number two seconds early. The stock indices, currencies and precious metals all reversed early movements and rallied just prior to the public release. Setting aside the trading action, the data continues to reflect a very tepid recovery. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 148,000 making the FED’s September 18 decision look credible. More important, the average hourly earnings grew less than expected and kept the pace of wage growth very anemic. The FED has communicated that it is the jobs rate that the markets should be mindful of when anticipating any future action to raise rates. The FED has told the markets that an UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL of 7.0% or maybe 6.5% will be a threshold target that could prompt the FED into action.

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Notes From Underground: It’s Raining Liquidity All Over the World

September 9, 2012

Friday’s unemployment report solidified the TRIFECTA of LIQUIDITY for the week. ECB President Draghi seeded the “liquidity clouds” at Thursday’s press conference by announcing the installation of the OTM (outright monetary transaction), which will allow the ECB/ESM to purchase unlimited amounts of sovereign debt of up to three-year duration–of course with conditions for those asking for help. Draghi is hoping to buy the whole EU project enough time so that a FISCAL UNION CAN BE FORMED WITH THE ABILITY FOR THE EU TO ISSUE A TRUE EUROBOND.

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Notes From Underground: Weena, Is It All Clear?

March 11, 2012

The unemployment numbers were much as expected and the most solid news was that the employment participation rate increased to 63.9% to 63.7%, which didn’t cause the overall jobless rate to increase. It has been discussed in this BLOG that the best news for the financial markets would be for job growth to pick up, with an uptick in the UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AS WORKERS RETURN TO THE JOBS POOL AS A SIGN OF IMPROVED CONFIDENCE. This number provided some of that but still not enough returnees to bump the rate higher for the higher rate will make the FED‘s FOMC January 25 statement that much more relevant.

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Notes From Underground: Sarkozy will borrow Trichet’s Mask and go as Marshal Petain for Halloween

October 30, 2011

The more things in Europe are reported as “calming,” the stranger the news stories that emanate from the various European capitols. In the weekend Financial Times it was reported that President Sarkozy told his citizens that they needed to act more like Germans. If France is to avoid slipping into a terrible sovereign DEBT CRISIS the French are going to have to adopt German-style frugality and a better work ethic. Sarkozy believes that the 35-hour work week must change for as France worked less, the Germans invoked the HARTZ IV program of structural changes to its labor force. Under the leadership of Gerhard Schroeder, the German unions voted for labor austerity in exchange for business not exporting jobs to lower-cost regions in Eastern Europe.

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