On Friday I sat down with Richard Bonugli at the Financial Repression Authority and Doomberg to discuss the current situation in global energy and tried to peek into the future as to where Europe and the US are going to find the means to provide dependable and affordable energy to power economic growth. Enjoy the podcast and hopefully it will lead to more high levels of discussion on all things global macro.
Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’
Notes From Underground: Neutral
August 16, 2022Notes From Underground: Traversing the Global Macro Landscape With Danielle DiMartino Booth
March 23, 2022On Tuesday, I sat down with Richard Bonugli and Danielle DiMartino Booth. We traversed Ukraine, Europe, the U.S. and Danielle delved deep into the her expertise of the Federal Reserve. We discussed the recent work of Zoltan Pozsar as it has had such a great impact on the current state of global financial markets. This sets the table for Richard’s next FRA Roundtable, which will feature Mr. Pozsar, who is one of the more knowledgeable financial “plumbers.” Pour your favorite WHISKEY as the financial system is explored for potential profits involving commodities, currencies, yield curves and tangentially precious metals.
Notes From Underground: Central Banks Driving Us to Drink
February 18, 2021Last week I chatted with Richard Bonugli and Europeans Godfrey Bloom and Claudio Grass. It is worth a listen — with your favorite libation, of course — as we moved from politics to the macro global picture in full. There was a great deal of discussion about the SNB with Claudio Grass and that is enough for all of us to drink.
Notes From Underground: The Unemployment Number is Wall Street’s Version of Picasso’s `The Dream’
March 11, 2018It was the best that Wall Street could dream of: It was a huge headline nonfarm payroll number with a large number of workers jumping into the labor market, which kept the unemployment rate at 4.1% and wage growth at a very tepid pace. Average hourly earnings were 0.1%, which is nirvana for the wealth managers: solid economic growth with stagnant wages. This may certainly be a one-off month as NFP could return to its average or wages begin to rise by at least 0.3% every month. Rick Santelli and Ed Lazear made the case that the increase in the labor participation rate was a great outcome as long time unemployed are gaining confidence in the genuine strength of the economy. The return of the long-term unemployed will show the real amount of slack in the economy, reflecting even more downward pressure on wages. If the slack is greater than the FOMC has previously believed, then the FED may well slow its rate increases. People returning to the labor force is a positive but it may be another kink in the Fed’s models.
Notes From Underground: Feeding the Ducks When They Quack
January 9, 2018Since the unemployment data, I have tried to write an appropriate blog but “all my words came back to me in shades of mediocrity” so I refrained from adding to the stream of vapid commentary that fills the Internet. But let’s proceed as the markets provided movement based on some sense of heightened inflation expectations. There is certainly money flowing into commodity based investments as OIL, COPPER, GOLD, and a litany of other natural resources have become a repository for money concerned with investments other than crypto currencies. The U.S. employment data was well within the range of expectations. The important average hourly earnings and the average work week were close to the consensus forecasts. The Canadian data beat estimates for the second consecutive month. The consensus was for an unemployment rate of 6% and addition of 2,000 jobs. The actual data was 5.7% unemployed and almost 80,000 new jobs, with two-thirds being part-time.
Notes From Underground: May Day! May Day! May Day!
April 30, 2013The international distress call is going out from Europe as the overall eurozone unemployment rate reached 12.1%. Germany had a low rate of 5.4% while Spain was more than 27%. So how is the ECB to do deal with the huge discrepancy between the economic performance of its 17 members? If the austerians are being relegated to economic purgatory then the pressure on the ECB to act will be diminished. Cutting rates for the sake of a show of action will be a detraction from the bigger political issue. Why irritate the Bundesbank and Chancellor Merkel by moving the ECB lending rate by a measly 25 basis points?
Notes From Underground: Mario Draghi, The Most Powerful Man In Europe Since???
October 4, 2012Tomorrow is UNEMPLOYMENT FRIDAY and the markets are geared up for headline driven action. The U.S. jobs report is expected to be 145,000 nonfarm payrolls and a rate of 8.2%, no change in the length of the work week at 34.4 hours and average hourly earnings rising 0.2%. The most significant data points will be manufacturing and construction jobs. Last month’s manufacturing jobs growth was weak and an increase is needed to put a more positive flavor to the report. I bring up construction jobs only because the HOUSING STOCK PRICES have risen dramatically and if homebuilders are increasing their work load then construction employment ought to be increasing–just looking for some synthesis between the real economy and stocks.
Notes From Underground: Reissues–August 5, August 8
August 21, 2012Before NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND continues on, let’s take a break to see where we’ve been. Here are two posts from early August:
August 5: Unemployment in the U.S. Was Much Ado About Nothing
August 8: Draghi … Could’ve, Would’ve, Should’ve
Notes From Underground: MAY 6 — A Flash Crash For the European Political Elite
May 6, 2012Before politics, it is important to review the two big stories from Friday:
1. The U.S. unemployment data was certainly on the weak side of expectations as nonfarm payrolls came in at a tepid 115,000, very close to the ADP report. Average hourly earnings were soft, which will challenge the view of consumer demand ramping up any time soon. Yes, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, but with so many people dropping out of the job market this indicator lends itself to so much POLITICAL SPIN THAT ITS USE IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE. Economists have twisted its meaning and therefore markets are disregarding its usefulness. The real positive in the data was the continue growth in MANUFACTURING as 16,000 factory jobs were created. Otherwise, the number was weak and will be a reason for the FED TO KEEP THE MUSIC OF OPERATION TWIST IN PLACE.
Notes From Underground: April Showers Bring May Unemployment
May 3, 2012As everybody reading and/or listening to financial news all week knows, tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. CST the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment report, which has been deemed as the most important data since …….????? The consensus is now for a nonfarm payroll increase of 170,000, the RATE TO STAY AT 8.2% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.2%. After Wednesday’s ADP data, the market has lowered its NFP expectations and thus, a consensus number of 170,000 will be a positive for the EQUITY markets, positive for the DOLLAR and meaningless for the BONDS.