Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’

Notes From Underground: The Unemployment Number is Wall Street’s Version of Picasso’s `The Dream’

March 11, 2018

It was the best that Wall Street could dream of: It was a huge headline nonfarm payroll number with a large number of workers jumping into the labor market, which kept the unemployment rate at 4.1% and wage growth at a very tepid pace. Average hourly earnings were 0.1%, which is nirvana for the wealth managers: solid economic growth with stagnant wages. This may certainly be a one-off month as NFP could return to its average or wages begin to rise by at least 0.3% every month. Rick Santelli and Ed Lazear made the case that the increase in the labor participation rate was a great outcome as long time unemployed are gaining confidence in the genuine strength of the economy. The return of the long-term unemployed will show the real amount of slack in the economy, reflecting even more downward pressure on wages. If the slack is greater than the FOMC has previously believed, then the FED may well slow its rate increases. People returning to the labor force is a positive but it may be another kink in the Fed’s models.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Feeding the Ducks When They Quack

January 9, 2018

Since the unemployment data, I have tried to write an appropriate blog but “all my words came back to me in shades of mediocrity” so I refrained from adding to the stream of vapid commentary that fills the Internet. But let’s proceed as the markets provided movement based on some sense of heightened inflation expectations. There is certainly money flowing into commodity based investments as OIL, COPPER, GOLD, and a litany of other natural resources have become a repository for money concerned with investments other than crypto currencies. The U.S. employment data was well within the range of expectations. The important average hourly earnings and the average work week were close to the consensus forecasts. The Canadian data beat estimates for the second consecutive month. The consensus was for an unemployment rate of 6% and addition of 2,000 jobs. The actual data was 5.7% unemployed and almost 80,000 new jobs, with two-thirds being part-time.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: May Day! May Day! May Day!

April 30, 2013

The international distress call is going out from Europe as the overall eurozone unemployment rate reached 12.1%. Germany had a low rate of 5.4% while Spain was more than 27%. So how is the ECB to do deal with the huge discrepancy between the economic performance of its 17 members? If the austerians are being relegated to economic purgatory then the pressure on the ECB to act will be diminished. Cutting rates for the sake of a show of action will be a detraction from the bigger political issue. Why irritate the Bundesbank and Chancellor Merkel by moving the ECB lending rate by a measly 25 basis points?

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Mario Draghi, The Most Powerful Man In Europe Since???

October 4, 2012

Tomorrow is UNEMPLOYMENT FRIDAY and the markets are geared up for headline driven action. The U.S. jobs report is expected to be 145,000 nonfarm payrolls and a rate of 8.2%, no change in the length of the work week at 34.4 hours and average hourly earnings rising 0.2%. The most significant data points will be manufacturing and construction jobs. Last month’s manufacturing jobs growth was weak and an increase is needed to put a more positive flavor to the report. I bring up construction jobs only because the HOUSING STOCK PRICES have risen dramatically and if homebuilders are increasing their work load then construction employment ought to be increasing–just looking for some synthesis between the real economy and stocks.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Reissues–August 5, August 8

August 21, 2012

Before NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND continues on, let’s take a break to see where we’ve been. Here are two posts from early August:

August 5: Unemployment in the U.S. Was Much Ado About Nothing

August 8: Draghi … Could’ve, Would’ve, Should’ve

Notes From Underground: MAY 6 — A Flash Crash For the European Political Elite

May 6, 2012
Before politics, it is important to review the two big stories from Friday:
1. The U.S. unemployment data was certainly on the weak side of expectations as nonfarm payrolls came in at a tepid 115,000, very close to the ADP report. Average hourly earnings were soft, which will challenge the view of consumer demand ramping up any time soon. Yes, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, but with so many people dropping out of the job market this indicator lends itself to so much POLITICAL SPIN THAT ITS USE IS BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE. Economists have twisted its meaning and therefore markets are disregarding its usefulness. The real positive in the data was the continue growth in MANUFACTURING as 16,000 factory jobs were created. Otherwise, the number was weak and will be a reason for the FED TO KEEP THE MUSIC OF OPERATION TWIST IN PLACE.
(more…)

Notes From Underground: April Showers Bring May Unemployment

May 3, 2012

As everybody reading and/or listening to financial news all week knows, tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. CST the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment report, which has been deemed as the most important data since …….????? The consensus is now for a nonfarm payroll increase of 170,000, the RATE TO STAY AT 8.2% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.2%. After Wednesday’s ADP data, the market has lowered its NFP expectations and thus, a consensus number of 170,000 will be a positive for the EQUITY markets, positive for the DOLLAR and meaningless for the BONDS.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Bill Gross Goes Biblical … Sort Of

April 5, 2012

In a comment directed toward the European peripherals, Pimco’s Bill Gross said that Greece was a zit, Portugal a boil, and Spain a tumor. Readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND know that Spain has been on the radar for a long time. The growth numbers or lack of growth, rather, hampered by severe austerity budgets have generated ADVERSE FEEDBACK LOOPS that have rendered all economic projections null and void. When austerity bites, all growth forecasts are cast asunder. Staying with Gross’s almost biblical references, I suggest looking at Europe though the lens of the TEN PLAGUES.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Thanks For The Get Well Wishes…Now, Let’s Get Back To Work

March 28, 2012

While I was away, Mr. 37 revealed that he is a 37er so the markets OUGHT to take very seriously Ben Bernanke’s PROMISE to Milton Friedman that the FED will not make the mistakes of 1937 again. In the interview with Diane Sawyer and the speech delivered at The National Association For Business Economics on Monday, the Fed chairman displayed his 37er credentials in full force.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Today Was International Central Bank Day (Very Little to Celebrate)

March 8, 2012

First with a hat tip to RF for e-mailing the JOKE of the DAY:

Overheard in the Athens Airport:

Greek Immigration Official:Nationality?

Tourist: German

Greek Immigration Official: Occupation?

Tourist: No. Just On Holiday

(more…)