It has been an interesting first month of trading as markets have gone from searching for inflation fueled by a rise in commodity prices and a weakening dollar, especially in regards to emerging market currencies. The commodity rally coupled with an upward thrust in emerging markets ran into the headwind of the spread of the Coronavirus from Wuhan, China to several other nations. The whiff of inflation was subsumed by the onset of fears of global deflation as investors continue to be concerned about China economic activity grinding to a halt as quarantines are the prescribed remedy for preventing a genuine pandemic.
Posts Tagged ‘Wilbur Ross’
Notes From Underground: Ho Hum, Time For Another Unemployment Number
February 6, 2020Notes From Underground: Trump Has Weaponized The Dollar. Do the Longs Know?
June 12, 2019Some shots were fired last Friday, but it seems that the markets can only hear the siren song of White House tweets. There was an important story from Bloomberg reporter Saleha Mohsin titled, “Trump’s Currency War Plan Puts Treasury and Commerce at Odds.” The article noted that “a Commerce Department proposal to impose countervailing tariffs on countries that it determines have devalued their currencies has alarmed officials at the Treasury Department.”
It appears that President Trump has grown frustrated by Treasury’s failure to name any country as a “currency manipulator.” It has been Treasury’s bailiwick to monitor the foreign exchange interventions of countries who strive to artificially hold down the value of their currencies in an effort gain a competitive advantage versus any G20 country, especially the U.S. (from the Treasury Department perspective).
Notes From Underground: But National Security IS Trade Policy
June 7, 2018Tonight I am LINKING to the March 1 post about the White House discussed invoking Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. In an effort to justify the idea of placing tariffs on U.S. allies to curb steel and aluminum imports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross noted that a strong steel sector is essential for U.S. national security. Section 232 is so broad that it is organic and can used to justify any action the U.S. deems necessary in regards to trade. In a CNBC interview on Thursday, Ross cited Section 232 again and wrapped it into the tariff discussion by maintaining that we must be strong economically to be strong militarily. Later in the interview he pressed that there can be no military security without economic strength.
Notes From Underground: Please, Please Pepper Spray Davos
January 24, 2018The U.S. dollar fiduciaries wreaked havoc on markets as Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross hit dollar bulls with a one-two punch that sent the dollar index to three-year lows. I sure hope that Mrs. Mnuchin mirrored the behavior of previous Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Phillip Hildebrand, who was forced to resign in January 2012 when it was discovered his wife made a currency trade three weeks prior to an SNB policy announcement. I am sure that no White House Davos participants acted in any kleptocratic fashion (sarcasm intended). The price of a $650,000 ticket to Davos has to be of some value. Now, moving beyond sarcasm, Secretary Mnuchin broke with tradition to openly suggesting that a weaker DOLLAR is good for American trade and thus economic performance.
Notes From Underground: Treasury Takes a softer Approach to Global Monetary Affairs
April 16, 2017On Friday April 14 Treasury released a report that deemed no major trading a currency manipulator but five countries have met two of the three criteria and therefore will be closely monitored. This report is very well laid out but it is not incendiary as it seeks to persuade with a very soft touch. The three criteria of meeting of being a “manipulator” are:
1. A significant bilateral trade surplus with the U.S.of a least $20 billion;2. S current account surplus is at least 3% of a nations GDP; and3. Persistent, one-sided intervention occurs when net purchases of foreign currency are conducted repeatedly and total at least 2% of a nation’s GDP in a 12-month period.
Notes From Underground: Will the Year of the Rooster Deliver a Wakeup Call?
December 18, 2016In a September 11 post, I criticized the Japanese Central Banks’s policy for its technical approach to attempt to steepen its 2/10 yield. I wrote the following:
Notes From Underground: Obama and Peggy Lee … is that all there is?
September 7, 2010The labor day period ended and the markets returned to risk-off profile as the media was awash with stories about the European stress tests being flawed. It seems that some analysts have awoken to the fact that the European tests were curved so as not to be overly bogged down by sovereign debt issues. There is nothing new to this as we talked about the flaws in the tests when they were administered, but the market ran with the “story” anyway and so we had a day of risk off. In addition to the Euro stress tests there was some softer German manufacturing data, which aided the equity selloff and, of course, put downward pressure on the EURO and other non-dollar currencies. The YEN, SWISS FRANC and GOLD were the biggest beneficiaries along with the long end of the global DEBT markets.
The Japanese are certainly not happy with the YEN strength but at this time it seems like there is not a great deal that the BOJ or MOF plan to do. In a Wall Street Journal opinion piece by Naomi Fink, who we consider to be a first-rate analyst, argues that the appreciating YEN may well be a blessing for the Japanese. We don’t agree with her analysis at the present time, but we think she raises many interesting points and is certainly worth reading and considering.
In Australia, we heard that Julia Gillard has cobbled together a Labor-led coalition in Australia. If the outcome means that the resource extraction gets watered down, we would view this as a positive for the AUSSIE. The Labor program has yet to be finalized so we are still cautious in our Aussie bullishness. The RBA stood pat on rates and offered a somewhat hawkish statement, but global growth uncertainty tempered any Aussie growth prospects.
Tomorrow morning we will hear from the Bank of Canada. The market is mixed about the probability of a rate rise–overnight rates are currently 75 basis points and it’s 50/50 that they will raised to 100 basis points. As with Australia, we will read the statement carefully. The latest data in Canada has been mixed but the BOC has been desirous of getting ahead of the curve but we want to see if the lack of U.S. growth causes the Canadians to hold rates since they remain cautious because of slowness in the other developed countries.
A reader of ours raised a question about the reason Larry Summers is in China during recent economic policy headlines from the OBAMA administration. The point raised was that Summers may be there to inform the Chinese that there are plans to refinance MBS mortgages and because China holds a great deal of that paper they want to let them know what the plans are and the potential impact the REFINANCE will have on the Chinese. Maybe a mark down of MBS is a far less painful path than to have tariffs and surcharges imposed on Chines imports. Senator Schumer is banging the drums louder for Chinese revaluation, which will benefit no one but send fears of an impending trade war. We stress again that the biggest bang the Obama administration can get would be a massive refinance plan, which would result in much lower monthly mortgage payments and aid millions of people who are currently underwater on their homes but would stay current with a much lower monthly payment.
Renowned investor Wilbur Ross added more support to this argument. Ross, who has invested heavily in the finance business in the last two years believes that the government should aid homeowners to avoid “negative equity rat holes.” In an interview, Ross said “holders of MBS securities should get tax benefits for giving borrowers better terms.” Yes, we know that ROSS and his companies will come out to the good but we only care if the policy makers latch on to this concept. Mortgage relief is what is needed to halt the rise in foreclosures, which is putting even more pressure on bank balance sheets and thus tying up the securitization market. Credit will not flow until banks have some sense of certainty that the downward pressure on residential real estate is abating. The effort to stem the balance sheet recession has to begin somewhere. Why not mortgage relief? Drips and drabs of tax relief will not prevent further write downs or get credit flowing, for as the market asked today: Is that all there is?