Last week, the leaders of the world’s central banks were attempting to regain their souls. FEDERAL RESERVE Chair Jerome Powell told tales of woe as workers were suffering as inflation rose. Crush the evil inflation out of the system is the battle cry in an effort to recreate the melodrama of Andrew Mellon in 1931: liquidate, liquidate, liquidate in an effort to Calvinize the evil from the economy by crushing demand. Powell did note that housing had weakened SIGNIFICANTLY and financial conditions HAVE TIGHTENED CONSIDERABLY but will have to be patient because monetary policy acts with a lag.
Posts Tagged ‘yield curves’
Notes From Underground: ‘Twas the Week Before Christmas
December 18, 2022Notes From Underground: Cui Bono? (Who Stands to Gain?)
November 28, 2022When it comes to making sense of the global financial system I always have to ask the question who is benefitting from monetary policy? The recent podcasts from the Financial Repression Authority has provided a good backdrop to understanding the importance of debt markets — and by default the significance of the US DOLLAR as the bulwark of the financial system. The mobility of money or what serves the process of globalization has revealed many of the fragilities of the DOLLAR as a funding vehicle because of the FEDERAL RESERVE’S policies, which allowed all the other world’s central banks to sustain a prolonged period of zero and even NEGATIVE NOMINAL RATES.
Notes From Underground: Recapping the Last Two Weeks
November 20, 2022The day after the FED meeting I sat down with the FINANCIAL REPRESSION AUTHORITY and did a podcast with David Rosenberg and Peter Boockvar. The discussion is still relevant as it speaks a great deal about bond, equity and, in particular, currency valuations. Then on Monday, November 7 Richard Bonugli hosted an hourlong discussion with Brent Johnson and myself, which was also about currency valuations and the precarious global situation of massive debt overhang. Finally, I recorded a third podcast with FRA and Eric Peters about crypto and the possible fallout from the collapse of FTX. There’s lots to digest here but as always I remind readers that the only relevance for traders/investors is to find meaningful trades or investments. Otherwise we are just talking to hear ourselves talk, which is in the very real sense meaningless. Also, it is not always what you make through relevant ideas but the capital preserved by not following the herd.
Click to listen to the Nov. 4 podcast with David Rosenberg and Peter Boockvar.
Click to listen to the Nov. 7 podcast with Brent Johnson.
Notes From Underground: Returning to the Turmoil
October 20, 2022After a period of personal introspection it’s time to return to the turmoil of the world. What better way to reenter than with a couple of podcasts.
Notes From Underground: Conversing With Dr. Anas Alhajji
September 25, 2022As I go into hiatus I am posting a PODCAST recorded on September 20 with world renown Professor Dr. Alhajji, in which we discuss global energy and its implications on global politics and finance. The Financial Repression Authority, under the auspices of Richard Bonugli, has provided a wonderful platform for allowing me to discuss the most relevant global macro topics with the leading thinkers in the realm. The wisdom of Mr. Bonugli allows for ferreting out investment ideas — both long and short — to help provide insight and profit for readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. Enjoy the podcast and I look forward to writing after the period of the Jewish Holidays as I’m in need of deep introspection. Wishing those who celebrate a coming year of health, peace and prosperity, and for those of other beliefs I wish you the same.
— Yra
Notes From Underground: We’re Back?
August 1, 2022It has been quite an extended period since my last post, but now I’m trying to catch up on some reading and relevant research on all things pertinent to GLOBAL MACRO. Following the FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE DECISION and the POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE, I sat down with Richard Bonugli, Peter Boockvar and Daniel Lacalle. This 66-minute podcast is packed with several pertinent topics, including yield curves, the dollar, Europe and even ESG investments. Please enjoy and I await your feedback and hopefully disagreements. Only the parochialist in echo chambers pursue validation.
Notes From Underground: Are You Ready When Delta Is?
July 19, 2021I’ve been away minding my two Floridian grandsons (exhausting yet delightful). I did, however, have time to catch up on some reading, particularly W.E.B. Du Bois’s “Suppression of the African Slave Trade,” as recommended by Chris Whalen. Du Bois looks at how the large state-domiciled banks helped finance the importation of African black slaves. This is high quality prose written in 1896, a well documented and enlightening read about the politics of America at its early beginnings. We could all stand to learn from a genuine scholar rather than shouting at each other.
Notes From Underground: Looking at 2020 With Imperfect Vision
January 9, 2020On Monday, I had a chat with Anthony Crudele about the global macro impact on markets in 2020. As I always warn (in an effort to mimic MAO), there are many potential prairie fires in the world that COULD be ignited by a single spark. The Middle East is a potential prairie fire — every year. We were reminded of this over the last week as multiple events in IRAQ/IRAN brought the world to the precipice of cataclysmic outcomes. For now, the situation seems to be contained as GOLD, sovereign bonds and other tools of wealth protection.
Notes From Underground: So Many Insights
November 5, 2019On October 31, I had the pleasure of the recording a discussion with Anthony Crudele and the always insightful Jim Bianco. These spots with Futures Television provide context to many things discussed in NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. I have been fortunate to have been chosen to appear with many high level global macro analysts.
Then on Sunday, I spoke with FRA’s Richard Bonugli and Dr. Marc Faber, one of the most heralded analysts in the global macro world. We covered the important issues for fifty-five minutes. It is my pleasure to share both of these conversations with you all.
Notes From Underground: The Hills Are Alive With … Sounds?
October 20, 2019There are so many sounds resonating in the global financial world it has been difficult to discern the impact of any particular tweet or headline. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND hopes to cut through the babel to provide perspective, context and NUANCE. If we at NOTES cannot accomplish this then we’re just screaming into the chasm that is global macro finance. The impact of Chinese tariffs, Middle East maneuverings, QE programs — from the BOJ to the FEDERAL RESERVE (yes I know what the policy makers are saying — it’s not QE) to the ECB — need to be understood as they drive short-term moves but also have much longer consequences.