I know it has been many, many, many, many months since I’ve published thoughts here. But I have been active in the podcast space, discussing macro finance/economics with the usual list of high caliber financial minds on Financial Repression Authority with Moderator Richard Bonugli. And last Thursday I sat with Victor Jones at The Price of Truth/Tasty Live (link is here). Now that the blogging has slowed, I behoove my longtime readers to push for a regular stint with Victor in an effort to analyze market potentials in a real-time format. At this time there is none but if their was a rising demand for high quality analysis it may become a doable proposition.
I generally do not post on X but some longtime readers have been posting blogs from a few years ago, and that has whet my appetite for real time interaction with those seeking to understand the global landscape. Please share the podcast if you believe it offers valuable insight and regardless find a way to Victor Jones and The Price of Truth.
I’ve included words of wisdom from Eric Peters, CIO at One River Asset Management:
Anecdote (Nov 2018): “Why do people feel that to be a good leader, they must absolutely believe in one direction over another, one path over another, one person over another?” asked the investor, an allocator. “Why do most people feel they have to live in a world of absolutes?” We were discussing the illusion of certainty. “We live in a world filled with questions. And the best traders I’ve known have never been sure of anything.” The blessing and curse of this business is that it forces us to come to terms with how little we know. It is at once terribly humbling and awe inspiring, in that to maintain your balance you must continually seek to define a wide range of possible outcomes, possibilities. Which is an exciting journey, requiring imagination, and a recognition that world history is the story of chance, surprise. “The most successful traders speak in probabilities of one thing over another. Not one dares pound the table and state something with absolute certainty.” I have friends who can change their minds twice in the same sentence. They’re the survivors. In their wake are those who needed to be right. “Something in our nature, or perhaps society, leads us to believe that to have gravitas we need to make grand pronouncements, appear definitive. Such statements are almost always wrong.” Yet we continue to listen, in a hopeless pursuit of certainty. “The best leaders amongst us seem to understand that their gift is not in pointing the way, it’s in taking input, maintaining flexibility, openness, adjusting enroute,” he said. “And as a trader, your job is to figure out what others will do because of their political and financial orientation, in a world that is unknowable, forever changing, and then make money with that.”
With fondness for your continued loyalty and respect,
Yra
Tags: financial markets, macroeconomics, trading
March 26, 2024 at 3:34 pm |
I’ve missed your financial acumen and words of wisdom.
March 26, 2024 at 4:10 pm |
YRA,
You have no idea how much I’ve missed your writings.
When you do a podcast would it be possible to tweet out link so we know you did one and can listen.
March 26, 2024 at 4:18 pm |
Great interview…..I think Gold broke thru the quad top because there’s a Credit Crisis coming.
March 26, 2024 at 4:25 pm |
Yra such a profound statement. At times blatantly obvious, but far too often many get lost in their opinions and their need to be right.
“The most successful traders speak in probabilities of one thing over another. Not one dares pound the table and state something with absolute certainty.” I have friends who can change their minds twice in the same sentence. They’re the survivors. In their wake are those who needed to be right”.
March 26, 2024 at 4:51 pm |
Election years are always back and forth with yes , no ,maybe and surprises.Rest assured this one will be one wild one. We miss your wisdom Yra. Glad you posted.
March 26, 2024 at 4:56 pm |
from Yra–thank you one and all and Trade1 your request shall be employed —-just learning to be better at the TECH end of this
March 26, 2024 at 7:31 pm |
Welcome back!
March 27, 2024 at 3:30 am |
Good afternoon Yra from Asia. Great to see you here again. I’ve been watching you and the FRA site you introduced us to long ago, so fortunately I feel I haven’t missed you terribly. That site deserves much love as its convo (as the young uns call it) is often excellent with perspectives one doesn’t find anywhere else. Also, as an old geezer who’s slipping, I think it’s a great way for you to keep your mind as sharp as it appears to be still. Very important to preserve that, even more than one’s wealth, I think. Keep on truckin!
March 27, 2024 at 3:32 am |
Shocked, I think you’re right. But isn’t the CBDC gonna fix all that for us? Lol. So gold is probably also reacting to WW3 – the elephant in the room. Thankfully I’m old, but I do worry for my progeny.
March 27, 2024 at 11:20 am |
Forgot 4 other Bullish items on Gold……. a) after we froze the Russian assets, some other countries became wary of holding USD, b) there is no fundamentally strong major currency, c) China and Germany economies are weak. and d) Yen Debt to GDP.
March 27, 2024 at 4:27 am |
Edwards and Magee in their 5th edition of “Technical Analysis…….” (1960) mentions a rising wedge and is it possible that the Dow Industrials now has that formation starting with a head and shoulders in Nov. 2023??? Is it also possible that we are still in a Bear Market in Equities that started in the Fall of 2021??? Should be considered but do not bet the ranch on it!!!
In the Spirit of the Passover/Easter Holiday i offer Jeremiah 21: 1-8.
Good to hear from you Yra Harris and stay well
March 27, 2024 at 5:18 am |
IDK about that, but I think there IS a bear market in the purchasing power of fiat. Likely to become worse as, for example, Powell last week talked about cutting rates into re-accelrating price inflation (which is actually closer to 10% than 2% currently using the older methodology as both Larry Summers and Shadowstats’ John Willams have explained). The SNB already cut and the BOC speaks of it.
Technically, that rising wedge in the DJIA, or an Ellliottwave diagonal, might be close to completing a bullish 3 of 5 Elliottwave cycle this year, precipitating a 4 of 5 multi-month decline, to be followed by a 5 of 5 bull run to a new ATH in a couple of years, which would also mark the terminal 5th wave in a supercycle stretching back to its beginning in 1932-33. In other words, the multi-decade bull will end this decade and be replaced by a very long bear cycle.
Presumably, fiat weakness or collapse will be supportive of asset prices overall for awhile yet, at least nominally, though not in a straight line of course. But after fiat collapses, then watch out below for nominal stock prices.
March 28, 2024 at 2:29 pm |
Thanks 92a for you Elliott. There is nothing in your evaluation that i disagree with.
March 29, 2024 at 1:32 pm |
thanks for all the great feedback—this high level discussion is what I have missed the most—thanks again for all the input over the last fifteen years
April 7, 2024 at 8:12 pm |
The FOMC is unanimous only to have a united front, the dissent is in the Dot Plots, you are spending too much energy on the vote, look closer and you will see Ira the unanimous vote is for show
May 8, 2024 at 10:36 pm |
One of the US economic advisors weighs in:
https://youtu.be/HcxlWFSQnnU?si=VSZfB0Otr7HbdUQh