FBI director James Comey played the bureaucratic card again when he released yet another pre-election report on the Clinton files. Comey issued an all-clear on any sort of criminal prosecution involving the newest Clinton file leaks. It’s interesting that the FBI director issued the letter three hours before the opening of the U.S. electronic exchanges, but as expected, the global equity experienced a relief rally in anticipation of a Hillary Clinton victory.
David Tepper was on CNBC this morning putting forth an investment view in line with yesterday’s Notes From Underground. Tepper was voting for the known “steady hand” of Hillary versus the uncertainty of Donald Trump and his teleprompter reminding him to stay on point. Tepper cited personal differences with Trump’s character but Tepper was also promoting his voting for Republican candidates further down the ballot. In Tepper’s world, and for most of the financial community, a house divided against itself is the best outcome.
***This is a major alert to all traders: Don’t RACE THE ALGO HEADLINE READERS. If you learned anything from the Brexit vote it should have been this: The algos are to be programmed to react to key counties and states so as to ascertain a Clinton or Trump victory based on certain key voting regions. Do your homework and know the importance of Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida. Pay attention to Maine’s second Congressional district to see who wins that for Maine is not a winner-take-all affair. The Rust Belt states of Michigan and Wisconsin are in play so do your homework so as to be able to know why the algos are moving the markets. The U.S. election is for more pivotal for the globe than Brexit so it will take longer for the election results to be dissected and understood unless the Democrats sweep the Presidency, Senate and House of Representatives.
The equity markets had a 2%+ rally today so a Hillary victory has already created a relief rally from the sustained drop from the initial Comey effort. An initial equity rally for a Hillary victory will be met with a selloff if the Democrats sweep. For further views please see the Tepper interview, which was also embraced by Mohammed El-Erian. Be prepared but because cautious as you will not outrun the algos. Preparation will result in an ability to use the pricing chaos from the headline readers for your advantage. TRADE LOCATION WILL BE CRITICAL. SPEED WILL NOT BE REWARDED.
Tags: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, U.S. election
November 8, 2016 at 7:41 am |
I find it laughable when establishment hacks like Tepper speak about Trump’s character, unsteady hand, and a house divided being better (as if an establishment Republican is any different than a Democrat). The House of Saud has nothing over the current ruling family in the US. In fact they are one big happy family as we have known for a long time, and the average Joe is coming to learn from WikiLeaks and not our own captured media.
The lack of character, morals, and ethics that it takes to support Hillary can only be surpassed by a child molester, which establishments have repeatedly protected, including the current political establishment.
The establishment claims that markets fear the uncertainty of Trump. The truth is they fear the certainty that Trump will drain their cesspool. Markets know that Hillary will start a war with Syria and Russia to deliver the gas pipeline for her donors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Trump in NOT a nation builder and he will NOT intentionally destablize the ME like Hillary’s donors in the military industrial complex will demand. The US dollar will rise who ever is president, so foreign balance sheets blow up regardless. Why do Dems want to also blow up the world and kill innocent people in the process? Also, who in the financial community thinks it’s bad to drop the corp rate to 15% so trillions come back home? Only crime families could care less about such mundane things.
November 8, 2016 at 9:26 am |
Face it. Justice, FB1, the Clinton Foundation, and “Friends of Bill” all got long Friday afternoon!
November 8, 2016 at 9:27 am |
Please take 3 minutes to get Jim Grant’s take on today, thank you.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/08/jim-grant-says-hes-voting-for-trump-but-theres-always-impeachment-to-get-pence-in.html
November 8, 2016 at 4:01 pm |
Hillary still better than Trump.
November 8, 2016 at 4:04 pm |
Tra- Watched the Tepper interview…….I think he just doesn’t like Trump.
It seems to me that bonds will break regardless of who wins. HRC will have to bust the budget to fulfill her agenda and DT has hinted at renegotiating Treasury debt.
November 8, 2016 at 5:27 pm |
shocked–i don’t disagree but the flattening curve is Hillary victory as it seems investors think HRC victory will mean the fed will raise —i am not that sure for other reasons but will get to that soon
November 9, 2016 at 2:46 pm |
It seems there’s been a material change thus I’m not convinced rules concerning gaps apply but algos are certainly programmed to take advantage of humans.
November 9, 2016 at 3:35 pm |
Did China just dump USTs and buy US stocks?