After a period of personal introspection it’s time to return to the turmoil of the world. What better way to reenter than with a couple of podcasts.
The first is a global outlook for the political economy of global energy. Doomberg is a group of true high quality discretionary thinkers. This compendium offers a view of the world beyond models.
The second podcast I recorded with the highly respected Julian Bridgen in which we spent a great deal of time discussing the global currency and bond markets. A problem that continues to boggle my mind is why the US 2/10 yield curve inverts while the Euro-area 2/10 yield curves continues to steepen. The steepening French, Italian, Spanish and Greek curves creates a massive problem for ECB President Christine Lagarde as she has made it mandate number one to preserve the EURO, which means preventing the fragmentation of European debt markets. At Lagarde’s last press conference, she made it clear that the ECB hadn’t even begun discussing the concept of QT, so while short-term rates are to move higher, there will be no shrinking of the balance sheet.
So the strong dollar creates even more tension for the Europeans as it forces the ECB to tighten rates even as cracks appear in the EU edifice. Pour a whiskey and enjoy the podcasts and will soon write a comprehensive blog on the concerns facing the global financial system. Couple this with the ongoing weakening YEN and, which could potentially cause Europe and other nations even more pain.
Click here to view the Doomberg podcast
Click here to view the podcast with Julien Brigden
Tags: Christine Lagarde, ECB, Euro, European Central Bank, Japanese yen, US dollar, yield curves
October 21, 2022 at 4:53 pm |
Yra…..Welcome back.
2 Reasons on the Yield Curve Discrepancies
a) The yield always steepens in the USA when we enter a recession…..we’re just starting to go into the recession now, I think
b) On Europe…..
1) They’re already in a recession, so a positive sloping yield curve
2) I don’t think people want to own Long European paper….energy crisis, Russia, unstable political systems. recession etc……might not get paid back or might get paid with Monopoly money.
I could be wrong.
October 23, 2022 at 9:56 pm |
Shocked —the ever strengthening DOLLAR is putting the ECB/EU in a very difficult position and leading to steepening curves as the “bond vigilantes” are able attack EU debt causing ever greater fragmentation in the European sovereign debt market,As Julian notes the curve will steepen as peoplesell the US longer duration debt because of the great fiscal/monetary uncertainty as the economy heads into a slowdown–to day I can get 4.5% on a one year t-bill why should I buy a ten year note for 4.2% with all that duration risk and the FED performing QT?
October 23, 2022 at 8:42 am |
Yra,
You never got to where you thought the price of GOLD was going should the Powell Fed accomplish its goal of 1% real return on FFR. You guys go off on tangents like I do every conversation I have, but my tangents are not nearly as productive! 😂
October 23, 2022 at 9:52 pm |
Nathanael—-back in 2018 when Julian notes the real yields went to positive 90 basis points on the FED FUNDS gold was trading $1250 –interesting that we are 35% higher with NOMINAL yields at 3.25% making the case but if real yield s were to atually go into positive territory GOLD I believe would be headed down –I don’t have targets as that is not my expertise as I would look to Whitewave and others who are far better at technical analysis –but GOLD in my analysis remains high because of what I have always maintained —diminishing central back credibility in a fiat currency world