Posts Tagged ‘ECB’

Notes From Underground: Have You All Lost Your Minds?

January 28, 2021

No, I am not referring to the gyrations in the realm of heavily shorted stocks and the attacks by the populace of Sherwood Forest to drive valuations ever higher.

The insanity following Wednesday’s FOMC statement and the Powell press conference leaves me contemplating the works of Kindleberger and Minsky. Complacency in financial markets relying on the kindness of strangers is setting the course for continued madness in all financial asset classes. The POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE YIELDED WHAT OUGHT TO HAVE BEEN THE HEADLINE FOR ALL FINANCIAL NEWS: FED CHAIR POWELL SAYS REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS 10%.

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Notes From Underground: Going Around and Around

December 13, 2020

There two issues whose headlines are creating intraday volatility: Brexit and Congressional tweets surrounding another covid stimulus package (or not). As it stands, so many workers are struggling due to job losses — though no fault of their own — and small businesses are trying to keep their doors open.

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Notes From Underground: Policy Trumps Data

June 6, 2020

The MISS by the economic analysts of Friday’s unemployment data has rendered all data as tertiary relative to the policy that has been enacted to counteract the malicious effects of the Covid-19 shutdown. Global stock markets have rallied as if normalization has occurred and UNEMPLOYMENT has returned to its historic lows of 3.5%.

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Notes From Underground: Courting Disaster

May 10, 2020

Friday’s unemployment report was as bad as forecast and probably worse. Yes, the unemployment rate was not as high as suspected but once the data was analyzed it appears the actual number was close to 20%. The most problematic data point going forward is the AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE). The jobs report revealed a historic 4.7% monthly increase but this was for the worst reason.

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Notes From Underground: May Day or Mayday Mayday Mayday?

May 3, 2020

On Friday the world “celebrated” May Day, when the red flags of the world’s workers united in solidarity are traditionally unfurled. The fall of the Berlin Wall unleashed the rush for economic development and a plethora of workers in search of capital to lift its productivity. And for the past 30 years have capital and wages have been elevated for the emerging economies yet stagnant for the developed region. It has been capital that has been the recipient of increased profits as global capital went to the lowest wage regions.

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Notes From Underground: From Bully Pulpit to Blabbermouth

April 21, 2020

ATTENTION: What you are about to read IS NOT A POLITICAL STATEMENT for I don’t care about your politics and you shouldn’t even know mine. The OVAL OFFICE provides the U.S. president a pulpit in which to amplify his/her voice in a an effort to tip the policy debates in their favor. But one a policy is ill advised from a trade/financial perspective and we will shout it from NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.

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Notes From Underground: What Does Friday’s Unemployment Mean, Mr. Natural?

April 2, 2020

IT DON’T MEAN SHIIIIITTTTT.

Let’s put aisde all the nonsense. But I will offer this: The average hourly earnings are going to begin to take on increased significance as the energy sector begins a massive shedding of HIGH PRICED jobs. Also, many other high priced employees are going to be losing work so the data is going to reflect a hit to consumers not only through the loss of jobs but from the destruction of HOURS WORKED by high income earners.

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Notes From Underground: And So It Goes

March 26, 2020

Everything we’ve discussed at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has come to fruition in a very real time. This is not predicting year-end levels or quarter-end levels but very critical calls in real time. My inbox has been inundated with pieces from analysts well after the fact. Last Thursday. I warned about the need to weaken the DOLLAR. Any reader long dollars is desirous of losing money.

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Notes From Underground: Three Cheers for Christine Lagarde

March 19, 2020

While the rate cutters were busy dumping on ECB President Christine Lagarde for not cutting and only announcing an increase in bond purchases I opined that Lagarde was getting more by doing less. Lagarde did not go down the Draghi route and lock up with Jens Weidmann and the Fiscal Austerians in the Hanseatic League. The ECB president played for a bigger prize and tonight she delivered with an announced 750 billion euro bond buying program of both public and private issues.

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Notes From Underground: We Walked Off to Look For America

March 15, 2020

These are challenging times is the understatement of the decade.

The fear of pandemic has arrived and is causing great distress for families and the nation at large as we are tending to the sick and those forced into a change of everyday patterns. Since the beginning of February, we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have been discussing the onset of the DEMAND SHOCK which would cause problems in the financial system because of the massive build-up of debt on a global scale. If businesses cannot operate as people hunker down in an effort to slow the spread of the virus then it goes without saying that DEMAND would suffer. If demand suffers on a global basis borrowers without cash reserves will struggle to sustain their businesses.

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