Let me put introduce areas of great concern that markets acknowledge but do not price for as they are too difficult to weigh. The Chinese/U.S. trade negotiations are simple relative to the potential impact from Turkey, Venezuela, Europe, and, of course the final decision on Brexit.
Posts Tagged ‘ECB’
Notes From Underground: Draghi Is Waiting On a Sunny Day
April 10, 2019President Mario Draghi’s press conference proceeded as expected as the European Central Bank laid out its plans for dealing with a slowing global economy suffering from the slings and arrows of president Trump’s trade war threats against the Chinese and now the Europeans. The ECB plans on keeping its interest rate policy intact through 2019 and probably longer as it confronts the recent headwinds to growth. The media asked several times about the possibility of tiering of rates in an effort to remove the adverse impact from the NEGATIVE DEPOSIT RATE FOR RESERVES PARKED AT THE ECB.
Notes From Underground: Wednesday, 6:45 CST … Our Day Begins
April 9, 2019There are so many issues plaguing Europe right now, and surprisingly, Brexit is not the most significant. On Wednesday morning — yes, Wednesday — the ECB announces its rate decision and it is expected that rates will remain unchanged, with the main refinancing rate at zero. The only possible news will be that the ECB actually engages in a tiered financing. This would mean that some banks would get relief from the -0.40% rate that the ECB charges banks to deposit cash at the central bank. There have been rumors that the ECB was planning on raising interest rates in the hope that boost for some European domestic rates would help lift the equity valuations of some profit-stressed financial institutions.
Notes From Underground: The Jobs Report Was Not Data Dependent
March 10, 2019Wow! That was a serious miss by the forecasters on job growth as only 20,000 new jobs were added. The huge miss will prove to be an aberration but doesn’t matter at all. As I pointed out in Thursday’s blog — as well as on the PODCAST Peter Boockvar and I recorded with Richard Bonugli from FRA, the ECB’s pivot toward liquidity addition via cheap bank loans has forced the FED into a policy of “watchful waiting.” And Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that stance in his speech Friday night as he stressed the need for caution in the search for normalization on rates and the balance sheet.
Notes From Underground: It’s a Drag Listening to Draghi Get Old
March 7, 2019ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference was, once again, another act of flim-flam as he PIVOTED away from any tightening for the next [FILL IN THE YEAR]. There was NO SURPRISE as the TLTRO was well telegraphed various news outlets in recent weeks. What’s amazing is that the currency markets were surprised by Draghi’s press conference as the U.S. DOLLAR staged a sizable rally, reaching its highest level in more than three months. The YEN was stronger as the weak stock markets provided a sense of Japanese repatriation of invested capital, while GOLD performed dismally.
Notes From Underground: Be Vigilant, Very Vigilant
February 26, 2019Today, I am writing this for all traders and investors. For many years I have been concerned that the market is sometimes plagued by headlines that create volatility as algos react to six words crossing the wire, only to be completely out of context when the article is published. But the damage is done. Most actors in the investment arena are unaware that MOST data releases and FED documents are provided to the media roughly 30 minutes early so that they can get their headlines and stories written for the scheduled time. My problem is that this antiquated methodology OUGHT to be extinguished because trades and information move in nano seconds rather than on Telex rollers as financial news was reported when this policy was enacted. When high frequency trading groups are spending millions of dollars to get edges in micro seconds it is certainly time to say goodbye to long-held operations.
Notes From Underground: Mario Draghi’s Circus
January 24, 2019The ECB did exactly as expected, which was less than its deposit rate (if that’s even possible). President Draghi answered questions for an hour and said absolutely nothing except that risks were now weighted to the downside. The structural theme of his composed narrative was the concept of persistence and assessment. Draghi laid the need for continued ECB monetary ease on many factors inhibiting growth:
- German auto production slowing;
- U.S.trade actions are creating greater uncertainty due to tariff threats;
- China slowdown; and
- Brexit
Notes From Underground: Mario the Magician Has Lost His Assistant
January 23, 2019The Bank of Japan did not surprise the markets as they remained committed to the lunacy of QQE, even with positive growth for many years. In an effort to make the central bank’s policy ever more relevant the BOJ lowered their inflation expectations, which the markets interpreted as lower for longer, resulting in a flurry of YEN selling of against all of the major traded currencies. There was even movement in the Swiss/yen cross as both central banks battle to keep their currencies in check by keeping interest rates negative.
Notes From Underground: Markets Are Rounding Third and Sliding Into Home
December 16, 2018As we head into the final two weeks of the year, the global equity markets are “sliding into home.” Equities sold off again on Friday as the Chinese tariff saga is failing to provide support to the market. Weekend news conveyed the idea that the market was reacting to this week’s FED meeting and the very high probability of another increase in the central bank’s target range. This is a stretch because investors have been aware of the FED‘s limitations under its own “forward guidance,” trapped into a rate hike for fear of spooking the market if no increase was decided.
