Please Donald, will the POTUS STFU, PLEASE. This is not a political statement. It is free advice because the more you communicate the less impact you will have. You may be trying to use the bully pulpit to jawbone the DOLLAR lower but every tweet diminishes your influence. Peter Navarro tried to create a weaker dollar but you have lessened the impact of his misinformed missives. Historically, jawboning has had a short-term market effect, but your late-night 140 character references are losing the power to persuade. You must learn that words are like your campaign sexual references, less is more. SO PLEASE, STFU.
Archive for the ‘ECB’ Category
Notes From Underground has been concerned that 2017 would be the year of Europe as the ECB’s quantitative easing policy and NEGATIVE interest rates would be an issue for many of the elections taking place this year. The Dutch, French and Germans will hold parliamentary elections. Those following the mass media will be focusing on immigration while NFU will continually seek to underline the importance of the repressive financial policies of the ECB. It is this narrative we will use to take the pulse of potential upheavals to the status quo. There is no doubt that the opposition to President Draghi is growing. In a threat to the Empress of Europe, Angela Merkel, received news that her coalition partner, SPD, has overtaken her party in the polls.
Janet Yellen and the FED take center stage tomorrow and the consensus is for NO CHANGE. The market believes the FED will be on hold until March. BUT I OFFER THIS: If I was the FED chair I WOULD RAISE RATES 50 BASIS POINTS to take some of the risk out of the U.S. equity markets. The S&Ps are virtually unchanged since the December FOMC meeting but the market’s enthusiasm for anticipated tax cuts, regulatory relief, and possible currency intervention means the FED cannot wait to let the economy run “hotter for longer,” especially because of the 4.7% U3 unemployment level. If Chair Yellen wishes to burst the TRUMP exuberance it is time to move aggressively to stem the rise of a potential inflationary threat.
Oh yes, we got trouble right here in Frankfurt City! It rhymes with T and starts with G and is spelled Germany. Today (and of no genuine market surprise), the ECB made no adjustments to its current QE and negative rate policy. The press conference was where all the potential market moving “tweets” would take place, but Professor Mario Draghi danced around the very fine questions from the European financial cognoscenti. Draghi was sharp as he insisted that “we need lower interest rates to get higher rates.” Also, when one inquisitor asked if the ECB was ready to DO LESS if inflation reached close to the MAGIC 2% level, President Draghi admitted that we only considered doing more QE (never LESS). Thus, the ECB allowed us a look at the asymmetric BIAS of all central banks. The ECB is far more worried about low growth, low inflation that the main concern is always more. And Draghi’s ultimate fallback position for the construction of counterfactual policy formation is the ongoing deleveraging process in Europe.
This year has been a year of surprises as conventional wisdom-based forecasts have proven to be like oral agreements: not worth the paper on which they are written. The coming year promises to bring more confusion and volatility as the markets are preparing for the U.S. to be a Trumpian utopia of wealth creation. I caution against blindly accepting this narrative for it will not be a U.S.-centric year. Attention will turn to Europe as the political cycle brings elections in the main players. France and Germany are the EU and the rest just the trimmings (so stated Charles De Gaulle). The EU is fraught with problems, so the more uncertainty raises the profile of the ECB President Mario Draghi. Senator Charles Schumer once said to Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, “You are the only game in town.” Well, an ECB with a printing press and no political accountability provides a central bank on steroids. Mario Draghi perceives himself as the savior of the EU project so expect him to be hyperactive in response to any major political changes in France. Greece, Italy and Spain still remain an economic issue so the entire EU financial system will be subject to paroxysms within its debt and equity markets.
The world is fraught with troubling news of assassinations, terrorist atrocities and confrontation between China and the U.S. But in the financial news it is all about the DOW PUSHING 20,000. To quote Mr. Natural: “What does the Dow 20,000 mean? It don’t mean SH*T.” We become enamored with numbers but in real financial terms 20,000 is meaningless on its own. The U.S. equity markets are enthralled with the possibilities that a Trump presidency will present. Three weeks ago Rick Santelli laid it out very well. He noted if trump was successful in reforming the ACA, realizing genuine corporate and personal tax simplification and reform, and rolling back some of the regulations burdening small and medium businesses the Trump administration would be an unmitigated success. If the Dow is the barometer, then Mr.Trump should declare victory and spend the next four years writing his autobiography.
“When you’re in the shit up to your neck, there’s nothing left to do but sing.” This is what Samuel Beckett wrote and it was the way President Mario Draghi performed today. Never in the history of central banking has a policy maker spewed so much crap about monetary policy and the annals of central bank shenanigans is voluminous. The EURO CURRENCY rallied 1 percent on the headline of the ECB‘s desire to cut monthly purchases to 60 billion euros a month but announced that the duration of QE would be extended through December 2017. So tapering on a monthly basis, but not on a longevity measurement.
In the 1969 cult classic Putney Swope written by Robert Downey, Sr., the film opens with the death at the board room table of the firm’s chairman, Mario. Not realizing he has had a heart attack the sycophants play charades to get at the message Mario is trying to convey, thus asking HOW MANY SYLLABLES MARIO? Tomorrow, the world will be asking Mario a different question. How much QE, Mario? How long? The European equity markets were en fuego early this morning, led by the German DAX, even as the SPOOs were lower to unchanged. There were rumors about a nationalization of Monti Paschi but it seems that the Italians were trying to delay an actual bailout of the troubled lender and wanted more time from the ECB. MY OPINION IS THAT THE ECB WILL ANNOUNCE SOME EFFORT TO BUY FINANCIAL DEBT FOLLOWING TOMORROW’S MEETING. The ECB has avoided buying financial debt in its QE program because it is also the banking supervisor for the EU.
Even though Steve Bannon is no Beau Brummel, the music of this early rock song must be ringing in his ears. It seems clear to all but the dumbest media talking heads that the Bannon plan of Trump’s continued flow of tweeting is an attempt to make sure the Trump team controls the NARRATIVE. (See Ben Hunt’s magnificent piece at Epsilon about the significance of narrative.) This is important for investors and traders because of Trump’s ability to control the narrative makes us all focus away from the most events of the greatest possible consequence. Today, the airwaves were echoing the Trump tweet of the President-elect threatening to cancel the orders for two new Air Force One planes, the President’s personal fleet.