Archive for the ‘Currency’ Category

Notes From Underground: Could Paul Volcker Find His Inner Volcker In This Environment?

May 22, 2022

Since the Zoltan Pozsar challenged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to find his inner Paul Volcker and raise interest rates high enough to bring the inflation expectations to heel. (He argued draining liquidity and raising rates to a NEUTRAL level OUGHT to be the medicine needed to truly render the current high inflation levels TRANSITORY.) Last week, Pozsar pushed on the theme again with a piece titled, “Ride of the ‘Volkyries'” in which the issue of financial conditions tightening is discussed in reflection to current FED policy of curbing inflation through the crushing of demand.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Into the Weeds on Yen/Yuan

April 28, 2022

In the first post about the YEN/YUAN, we discussed the current significance of the cross, and with it a rising dollar. Now we will provide CONTEXT and NUANCE as to the backdrop of this cross’s significance. It is easy to forget that the Chinese economic miracle is only 40 years old as it began under the direction of DENG in 1978-79 and his rise as China’s leader. By 1994 China is beginning to feel the positive effects of Deng’s policies of white cat/black cat in pursuing modernity and western-style economic growth.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: The Meaning of the Yen/YUAN Cross

April 26, 2022

In the past three weeks I have had the pleasure of doing two major podcasts with two of the most highly regarded global macro thinkers and traders: Zoltan Pozsar and Louis Gave. Our discussions led to an attempt to explain the importance of the Chinese yuan during the current period of CAPITAL ANXIETY. During the past two years the Chinese YUAN has rallied from 7.13/dollar to 6.35, where it has sat for the last six months (a gain of 12%). And, as I have argued for the last 18 months, the strengthening YUAN during the pandemic was a signal that the Chinese were shifting to a more domestic-oriented economy using a stronger currency to enrich its nascent middle class.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Are Central Banks the Grand Illusion?

April 1, 2022

This week I had the extreme pleasure of recording a Financial Repression Authority podcast with Zoltan Poszar (moderated by Richard Bonugli, of course). We covered the entire global scene from yield curves, petro dollars and the underlying basis to all fiat money transactions. It is worth a listen to learn that the fabricated, algo-driven headlines are not the contextual basis of major shifting sands in the global financial system. There is far more nuance locked underlying the moves by policy makers around the world.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Get Smart

March 13, 2022

There are so many things to consider when trading in the current climate. First and foremost, CAUTION is the key word, not FEAR. As Billy Joel would say, “We didn’t start the fire,” but as traders and investors we have to dance on the embers. The trading environment is dangerous because the algo-driven trading shops are being bombarded with an endless flow of headlines and outlets fighting to be the first to report any news story. Let the speed merchants draw markets to levels where risk can be measured rather than trading just to trade.

(more…)

Notes From Underground: A Quick Hit On the State of Chaos

March 6, 2022

First, our hearts go out to all suffering in the world of insanity brought on by senseless wars that diplomacy OUGHT to have been able to prevent. The world always returns to the insanity that brought us to World War I when nobody could stop the trains once set in motion. As Phil Ochs sang, “It’s always the old who lead us off to war, it’s always to fall, look at all we won with the saber and the gun, tell me is it worth it all?” But here we are and as always the world continues to focus on the minutiae of life, including the financial outcomes responding to the high-speed headlines driven by algorithmic speed machines. There is no context to any news just manufactured volatility fabricators of the latest musings of some “news” outlets’ favorite expert. But as Hyman Roth said so clearly: “Michael this is the profession we have chosen.”

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Coal for Some Stockings?

December 12, 2021

If you’re only looking at the headlines from the past 48 hours, there is something major going on. First, on Friday afternoon Bloomberg reported that the G-7 finance chiefs are planning to discuss inflation as prices soar and the Financial Times followed on Saturday about the U.S. Democrats pushing the Federal Reserve for tougher action against inflation. These two stories are everything that we at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND have been discussing since the Dems’ poor election showing last month.

The White House polls — and thus the political operatives — reflected that inflation concerns were going to be the biggest issue for all Democrats in 2022, which is why there was a sense of urgency to use SPR and release oil to drive headline energy costs down. It’s the classic political ploy to appear to be doing something. What’s next? Wage and price controls?

(more…)

Notes From Underground: It’s Hard to Believe

December 8, 2021

A Note From Notes

On December 7, 2009, NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND published its first post and we’ve shared a few thousand thoughts since then (all archived at WordPress and for those on CQG they available thanks to the great efforts of Stan Yabroff). In sifting through this treasure trove I am proud to say this has been an arduous but rewarding endeavor. The amount of work is great especially because so many of these musings have been time sensitive.

Then in the last five years, I’ve been fortunate enough to work with the Financial Repression Authority to elevate the discussion surrounding these thoughts with some of the greatest minds in the business — Felix Zulauf, Marc Faber, Jim Bianco, Peter Boockvar, Lacy Hunt, David Rosenberg, Louis Gave and so many others.

So as I scroll through the voluminous posts, podcasts and CNBC appearances, I’m in awe of how we’ve attempted to open up the world of financial markets to deep analytical exegesis of important investment ideas on a time scale from one hour to years depending upon the amount of leverage involved in the trade. As Louis Gave once said, “I am not paid to forecast for my clients but to adapt,” that sums up the endeavor of this blog. Over the past 12 years I have hoped to get my readers to adopt to the illogical exigencies of the geo-political world. The rationalists do not read NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND because they know where prices OUGHT to be.

But, where do we go from here? This is where you come in, dear readers. I’d be interested in understanding how you best consume this information. Maybe it’s a 15-minute daily chat with FRA’s Richard Bonugli and other guests. Either way, we’re going to try and monetize this wealth of information, and offer up my wisdom to large traders, sovereign wealth funds and family wealth offices and the like. It’s been so enriching interacting with many minds around the world. I am beyond grateful to experience, teach and, most importantly, learn from the likes of Dave Richards, Mike Temple, Big Man, Professor Waspi and many more.

In that vein, I am posting a podcast that was recorded about two weeks ago, a roundtable of sorts featuring Jim Bianco and Peter Boockvar. This may be one of the best ways to advance NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.

Many Thanks,

Yra

(more…)

Notes From Underground: Odious, Indeed

November 21, 2021

We at Notes From Underground on Oct. 31 wrote a post titled, “The Odious Designs of ECB Policy.” It noted that during the ECB post-meeting press conference President Christine Lagarde said — in response to a question of whether the ECB would coordinate TAPERING with the world’s other central bank — “comparisons, for good reason are ODIOUS, simply because we are not thinking about the same economies.”

(more…)

Notes From Underground: What Turned the Markets On Friday?

November 7, 2021

The U.S. and Canadian unemployment data both were somewhat stronger than expected. The markets were trading in focus with the robust U.S. data — equities higher, DOLLAR firm, and bonds trying to adjust in the face of the FOMC‘s tapering plans.

Things took a turn around 11 a.m. eastern time. The precious metals began a ferocious rally, bonds rallied, and all the currencies began to rally actually closed higher on the day even as European interest rates moved similar to the U.S. and equities dropped from their all-time highs. What could’ve been responsible for the moves on a day of good data and, more importantly, the prevailing sense that the Biden White House was FINALLY going to get its infrastructure bill.

(more…)