This week, three G-7 central banks had meetings and all decided to CHECK and leave policy unchanged. This was widely expected as there was little reason to UPSET the incoming Biden administration with any idea of currency manipulation. However, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank all discussed the fear of a further slowdown from an increased spread of covid-19.
Posts Tagged ‘Euro’
Notes From Underground: Central Bank Poker
January 21, 2021Notes From Underground: Never Have Been and Never Will Be
December 21, 2020… a supporter of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. In my opinion, he’s another Wall Street hack devoid of any genuine knowledge of the global macro world in which he his sent to do battle on a daily basis. Last week’s decision to label Vietnam and Switzerland as “currency manipulators” is badly timed, badly chosen and badly misinformed. Why would you name Vietnam a currency manipulator when a large part of the Trump administration’s policy is directed toward relocating global supply chains away from China. In addition, labelling Vietnam a “currency manipulator “is an immoral and unconscionable act. Even Bob McNamara is spinning on his “rotisserie in hell.”
Notes From Underground: The Darkness of Foreign Exchange
December 10, 2020There were two central bank meetings in the past two days: The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. The BOC stayed its current course with no change in policy. Several analysts were looking for more dovish action because of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar but the BOC was wise in noting that a “broad-based decline” in the U.S. exchange rate has contributed to a “further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.” As a result, the BOC has ZERO concerns about its currency appreciating as long as it is BROAD-BASED.
Notes From Underground: Narcissism Has Consequences
October 1, 2020On Friday, there’s a new dose of unemployment data. While these blog posts have been infrequent, my view remains the same: The Federal Open Market Committee may be keen on promoting inflation while returning to the pre-Covid employment levels, but no amount of robust jobs growth will move the FEDERAL RESERVE off its current policy of lower for longer.
In regards to the year-end data, I want to know: If unemployment is below 9% while the annualized inflation levels were to rise to 6%, would the FED raise rates? If your answer is no then you agree that the data outcomes are benign. At this juncture much more concerned with the next phase of fiscal stimulus and the DOLLAR.
Notes From Underground: A Long, Long Time Ago
August 23, 2020We are back. This is the first blog post after a 10-week break. It has been a nice hiatus from writing as we took some time to reflect and respect the sanctity of motherhood.
I’m linking to an FRA PODCAST hosted by Richard Bonugli taped on Thursday featuring Barry Ritholtz, David Rosenberg and myself. This will be a solid starting point for NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND as it picks up where we left off on June 12: LONG EUROS, LONG GOLD and looking for some vigor in the commodity markets.
Notes From Underground: Policy Trumps Data
June 6, 2020The MISS by the economic analysts of Friday’s unemployment data has rendered all data as tertiary relative to the policy that has been enacted to counteract the malicious effects of the Covid-19 shutdown. Global stock markets have rallied as if normalization has occurred and UNEMPLOYMENT has returned to its historic lows of 3.5%.
Notes From Underground: Friday’s Wall Street Rally?
May 31, 2020Friday’s Wall Street rally into the close of month end was the ultimate statement of the FED listens. Yes, only to the needs of the financial world as ULTRA CHEAP MONEY pushes equity prices ever higher in the search for yield beyond 50 basis points. The BONDS remain bid as short sellers live in fear of central bank intervention. When the 10- and 30-year yields begin to rise the FED speakers discuss the increased possibility of YIELD CURVE CONTROL, or YCC, making it difficult for any type of signaling mechanism to develop.
Notes From Underground: May Day or Mayday Mayday Mayday?
May 3, 2020On Friday the world “celebrated” May Day, when the red flags of the world’s workers united in solidarity are traditionally unfurled. The fall of the Berlin Wall unleashed the rush for economic development and a plethora of workers in search of capital to lift its productivity. And for the past 30 years have capital and wages have been elevated for the emerging economies yet stagnant for the developed region. It has been capital that has been the recipient of increased profits as global capital went to the lowest wage regions.
Notes From Underground: Merkel Doesn’t Approve of Macron’s Package
April 23, 2020It seems this would be a good headline for the New York tabloids if any mainstream U.S. media outlets actually paid attention to what took place in Europe. Again, EU leaders failed to agree on a large fiscal stimulus backed by a common funding mechanism, or as George Soros and others recommended, a perpetual EUROBOND of at least a TRILLION EUROS or more. The Germans and their running dogs fail to acknowledge that the collapse of the European financial system if the Italians choose the “nuclear option” and say CIAO to the EURO the cost will far exceed any amount being discussed.
