Posts Tagged ‘Euro’
October 1, 2020
On Friday, there’s a new dose of unemployment data. While these blog posts have been infrequent, my view remains the same: The Federal Open Market Committee may be keen on promoting inflation while returning to the pre-Covid employment levels, but no amount of robust jobs growth will move the FEDERAL RESERVE off its current policy of lower for longer.
In regards to the year-end data, I want to know: If unemployment is below 9% while the annualized inflation levels were to rise to 6%, would the FED raise rates? If your answer is no then you agree that the data outcomes are benign. At this juncture much more concerned with the next phase of fiscal stimulus and the DOLLAR.
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Tags:2020 U.S. election, covid-19, Euro, Federal Reserve, fiscal stimulus, inflation, Jerome Powell, U.S. Dollar, unemployment data
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 5 Comments »
August 23, 2020
We are back. This is the first blog post after a 10-week break. It has been a nice hiatus from writing as we took some time to reflect and respect the sanctity of motherhood.
I’m linking to an FRA PODCAST hosted by Richard Bonugli taped on Thursday featuring Barry Ritholtz, David Rosenberg and myself. This will be a solid starting point for NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND as it picks up where we left off on June 12: LONG EUROS, LONG GOLD and looking for some vigor in the commodity markets.
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Tags:Euro, European Union, Gold, Japanese yen, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Currency, Podcast | 8 Comments »
June 6, 2020
The MISS by the economic analysts of Friday’s unemployment data has rendered all data as tertiary relative to the policy that has been enacted to counteract the malicious effects of the Covid-19 shutdown. Global stock markets have rallied as if normalization has occurred and UNEMPLOYMENT has returned to its historic lows of 3.5%.
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Tags:central bank stimulus, Christine Lagarde, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, Jerome Powell, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Currency, ECB, Fed | 10 Comments »
May 31, 2020
Friday’s Wall Street rally into the close of month end was the ultimate statement of the FED listens. Yes, only to the needs of the financial world as ULTRA CHEAP MONEY pushes equity prices ever higher in the search for yield beyond 50 basis points. The BONDS remain bid as short sellers live in fear of central bank intervention. When the 10- and 30-year yields begin to rise the FED speakers discuss the increased possibility of YIELD CURVE CONTROL, or YCC, making it difficult for any type of signaling mechanism to develop.
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Tags:cheap money, Euro, Europe, Federal Reserve, Germany, U.S. stocks, Wolfgang Schaeuble
Posted in Equity, Europe, Germany | 8 Comments »
May 3, 2020
On Friday the world “celebrated” May Day, when the red flags of the world’s workers united in solidarity are traditionally unfurled. The fall of the Berlin Wall unleashed the rush for economic development and a plethora of workers in search of capital to lift its productivity. And for the past 30 years have capital and wages have been elevated for the emerging economies yet stagnant for the developed region. It has been capital that has been the recipient of increased profits as global capital went to the lowest wage regions.
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Tags:Christine Lagard, Coronavirus, deflation, ECB, Euro, Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, QE
Posted in ECB, Fed | 11 Comments »
April 23, 2020
It seems this would be a good headline for the New York tabloids if any mainstream U.S. media outlets actually paid attention to what took place in Europe. Again, EU leaders failed to agree on a large fiscal stimulus backed by a common funding mechanism, or as George Soros and others recommended, a perpetual EUROBOND of at least a TRILLION EUROS or more. The Germans and their running dogs fail to acknowledge that the collapse of the European financial system if the Italians choose the “nuclear option” and say CIAO to the EURO the cost will far exceed any amount being discussed.
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Tags:Christine Lagarde, Euro, Eurobond, U.S. Dollar, Yanis Varoufakis
Posted in Currency, ECB, Europe | 46 Comments »
April 21, 2020
ATTENTION: What you are about to read IS NOT A POLITICAL STATEMENT for I don’t care about your politics and you shouldn’t even know mine. The OVAL OFFICE provides the U.S. president a pulpit in which to amplify his/her voice in a an effort to tip the policy debates in their favor. But one a policy is ill advised from a trade/financial perspective and we will shout it from NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND.
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Tags:China, Christine Lagarde, deflationary spiral, dollar-denominated debt, ECB, Euro, Fed, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Currency, ECB, United States | 29 Comments »
April 13, 2020
On Monday, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the G-7 will be holding a video conference Tuesday, which will include all the central bankers. What is on the agenda? It has not been announced so we are left to GUESSING. The Swap LINES have been opened, massive asset purchase programs are in place, new facilities have been created and fiscal stimulus is raining down in all the old familiar places. The OIL agreement is in place and the FED has even embarked on a program of exchanging CASH for high yield bond ETFs in an effort to prevent a continued negative feedback loop in corporate debt markets. What is there for the G-7 to discuss?
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Tags:Euro, Eurobond, European Union, Fed, G-7, Germany, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Currency, ECB, Europe, G-7, Germany | 20 Comments »
April 5, 2020
At this time of great chaos in the world I am going to take a 10 day hiatus to sit back and reflect as it is the time of Passover and Easter. These holidays will take on special significance this year as the Covid-19 impacts our plans.
So as I retrench I put forward the words of the Prophet Micah for something to contemplate: “To Act Justly, and to LOVE MERCY and to walk HUMBLY with YOUR GOD.” Wishing all my readers a meaningful period of the holidays before us. I may post a podcast I recorded this morning with Anthony Crudele but that will be it, although I will respond to all questions in an effort to stay alert to critical issues in a rapidly changing global environment. Now to the issues before us.
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Tags:bond market, Christine Lagarde, Euro, Eurobond, European Union, Fed, Jerome Powell, oil, Russia, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Central Banks, Currency, Debt Market, Fed, Oil | 20 Comments »
March 5, 2020
The other day I called question to the tepid G-7 statement, which was followed by a 50 basis point CUT from the Federal Reserve. On Thursday the Financial Times published a story saying the Fed’s move was counter to a history of G-7 collaboration. Let us first dissuade the popular mythology of the G-7 as relevant to any serious global action. The colonial remnants of the authority of the bailiwick of the mechanism for the containment of the Soviet Empire are a JOKE. During the financial crisis it was the moves made by China that did more to stabilize global growth than any action by the G-7.
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Tags:Aussie Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro, G-7, U.S. Dollar, Yen
Posted in Currency, United States | 26 Comments »
