Posts Tagged ‘Jerome Powell’
September 25, 2022
As I go into hiatus I am posting a PODCAST recorded on September 20 with world renown Professor Dr. Alhajji, in which we discuss global energy and its implications on global politics and finance. The Financial Repression Authority, under the auspices of Richard Bonugli, has provided a wonderful platform for allowing me to discuss the most relevant global macro topics with the leading thinkers in the realm. The wisdom of Mr. Bonugli allows for ferreting out investment ideas — both long and short — to help provide insight and profit for readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND. Enjoy the podcast and I look forward to writing after the period of the Jewish Holidays as I’m in need of deep introspection. Wishing those who celebrate a coming year of health, peace and prosperity, and for those of other beliefs I wish you the same.
— Yra
Click on the link to view the podcast.
(more…)
Tags:Bank of Japan, Fed Funds, Federal Reserve, Japanese yen, Jerome Powell, US dollar, yield curves
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 20 Comments »
September 20, 2022
A quick view on Wednesday’s FEDERAL RESERVE‘s meeting: According to the newest Fed stenographer, Nick Timiraos, look for the central bank to raise rates 75 basis points in an effort to get ahead of the curse of HEADLINE inflation. This level is baked into the present market values. Look to see if there is any discussion of slowing the FED FUNDS increases as the FED tries to get a handle on the impact of $95 billion a month balance sheet unwind and a DOLLAR that has risen 14% since the beginning of the year, and more than 20% versus the Japanese yen.
(more…)
Tags:dot plot, Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell, US dollar
Posted in Currency, Fed | 19 Comments »
August 24, 2022
I have not been a fan of yours since your January 2019 “Powell Pivot,” when you allowed yourself to be fooled by the markets. In an effort to rein in Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen’s QE programs you went for what Stan Druckenmiller called the “double shotgun approach” and raised interest rates while reducing the Fed’s balance sheet — what Peter Boockvar called Quantitative Tightening (QT).
(more…)
Tags:Ben Bernanke, Ed Yardini, Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, QE, QT, US dollar
Posted in Fed | 19 Comments »
August 16, 2022
On Friday I sat down with Richard Bonugli at the Financial Repression Authority and Doomberg to discuss the current situation in global energy and tried to peek into the future as to where Europe and the US are going to find the means to provide dependable and affordable energy to power economic growth. Enjoy the podcast and hopefully it will lead to more high levels of discussion on all things global macro.
Click here to view the podcast.
(more…)
Tags:balance sheet unwind, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve, inflation, interest rates, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, neutral rate, portfolio balance channel, QT, rentier class, unemployment
Posted in Fed | 13 Comments »
August 3, 2022
I yet another effort to understand where are going with the FED and their so-called NEUTRAL RATE, FRA hosted a podcast with Darius Dale of 42 Macro. It entertains themes familiar to readers of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND as yield curves and currencies provide the backdrop for a great part of the analysis. We also discussed the next vote of the FOMC to see if the newest GOVERNORS finally find their voice and begin elevating their research into policy. Lisa Cook and Philip Jefferson are well known labor economists that Professor Jason Furman called the most dovish appointees in decades, and yet we have not heard a discouraging word from the FED neophytes.
(more…)
Tags:Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, neutral rate, Philip Jefferson, US yield curve
Posted in Fed | 7 Comments »
August 1, 2022
It has been quite an extended period since my last post, but now I’m trying to catch up on some reading and relevant research on all things pertinent to GLOBAL MACRO. Following the FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE DECISION and the POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE, I sat down with Richard Bonugli, Peter Boockvar and Daniel Lacalle. This 66-minute podcast is packed with several pertinent topics, including yield curves, the dollar, Europe and even ESG investments. Please enjoy and I await your feedback and hopefully disagreements. Only the parochialist in echo chambers pursue validation.
Click here to listen to the recording.
(more…)
Tags:Federal Reserve, FOMC, Jerome Powell, recession, Swiss Franc, US dollar, yield curves
Posted in Currency, Fed | 9 Comments »
May 22, 2022
Since the Zoltan Pozsar challenged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to find his inner Paul Volcker and raise interest rates high enough to bring the inflation expectations to heel. (He argued draining liquidity and raising rates to a NEUTRAL level OUGHT to be the medicine needed to truly render the current high inflation levels TRANSITORY.) Last week, Pozsar pushed on the theme again with a piece titled, “Ride of the ‘Volkyries'” in which the issue of financial conditions tightening is discussed in reflection to current FED policy of curbing inflation through the crushing of demand.
(more…)
Tags:financial conditions, Janet Yellen, Jerome Powell, Paul Volcker, US dollar, wealth destruction, Zoltan Pozsar
Posted in Currency, Fed, United States | 15 Comments »
May 10, 2022
Last week the FOMC raised rates by 50 basis points, which seemed like the most likely outcome (although interest rate markets had assigned a slight probability of 75 basis point increase). The statement was nothing if not vague about the FED‘s plans, yet the last sentence left the central bank room for flexibility: “The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”
(more…)
Tags:balance sheet unwind, demand destruction, inflation, Jerome Powell, QT, U.S. Dollar, wealth destruction
Posted in Fed | 8 Comments »
May 3, 2022
Yes, Wednesday is FED day and the markets are expecting a 50 basis point increase in the FED FUNDS RATE to a range of 0.75% to 1%. The most important issue will be the size of the balance sheet unwind and whether Chair Jerome Powell is good to his heightened concerns about headline inflation means a full throttle on balance sheet shrinkage, reaching the full $95 billion a month at a quick pace. So Jerome, let’s have at it and let the markets decide the impact on myriad asset classes. In 2018, this double shotgun of QT and interest rate hikes proved too much for the highly leveraged global markets. Now that the Fed’s balance sheet is twice as large let’s see how it will affect the leverage in the global system.
(more…)
Tags:balance sheet unwind, Fed Funds Rate, Federal Reserve, inflation, Jerome Powell, QT, rate hikes, U.S. Dollar
Posted in Fed, United States | 10 Comments »
April 10, 2022
There was an article in Foreign Affairs this week by Graham Allison, the dean of American political scientists, titled, “Putin’s Doomsday Threat: How to Prevent a Repeat of the Cuban Missile Crisis in Ukraine.” The piece raises an important tactical question about escalating the violence in an effort to prevent a greater catastrophe similar to what President Kennedy was threatening in 1962. It’s worth a read as it was Allison’s book, “The Essence of Decision,” that provided the understanding of the bureaucratic mindset during the nuclear age. It provoked me to think that the escalate to de-escalate seems to be the paradigm of the FOMC as complacency over zero interest and transitory inflation has given rise to policy makers’ more hawkish jawboning. Uber-doves Charlie Evans, Mary Daly, Jerome Powell, Lael Brainard have been on a mission to find their INNER VOLCKER (at least rhetorically).
(more…)
Tags:balance sheet, Federal Reserve, FOMC, Jerome Powell, MBS, QT
Posted in Fed, United States | 8 Comments »