Posts Tagged ‘Shinzo Abe’

Notes From Underground: Prepping For Draghi

October 23, 2017

Another moment in time with Rick Santelli. We reviewed some of today’s early market reactions to the weekend events. A measure of the impact of President Mario Draghi’s ECB policy was reflected in the prices of European sovereign debt. The political news out of Spain and Italy let alone recent elections in Austria and the Czech Republic SHOULD have sent Italian and Spanish yields HIGHER but because of the ECB’s ongoing LARGE ASSET PURCHASES Spanish and Italian yields on 10-year debt actually dropped the most today.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss the weekend’s events.)

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Notes From Underground: Why All the Noise From Friday’s Unemployment Data?

April 6, 2014

Friday’s jobs data was almost as the pundits had predicted. Why was there so much activity when the nonfarm payrolls and average hourly earnings and length of work week were basically the right on the consensus predictions? Yes, I’m aware that the “whisper number” was 250,000-plus due to the removal of harsh weather conditions. However, if that was the case, the dollar should have weakened and the short-end of the U.S. yield curve OUGHT to have outperformed the long end resulting in a STEEPENING of the 2/10 (none of which occurred). The 2/10 curve actually flattened as the U.S. stock markets began selling off, a drop initiated by the Nasdaq 100’s key momentum stocks. The weekly charts of the S&P and the Nasdaq took different turns as the SPOOs closed higher on the week and the Nasdaq closed lower, an indication of some reallocation from the momentum-oriented stocks to the more solid large-cap, earnings-based equities.

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Notes From Underground: Japan Revs Its Engine As the Wisdom of Pundits Stalls

April 11, 2013

Over and over, financial news airwaves are filled with noise about since the Bank of Japan–under the supervision of Governor Kuroda–has embarked on a massive dose of Quantitative Easing, there has been no real outflow of YEN around the world. The only problem with this bloviating is that its devoid of fact. The BOJ’s action, or rather, call to action has led to a drop in European bond yields as well as a new pillar of support for U.S. Treasuries. Further proof is last night’s employment data from Australia, which was much weaker than expected (a  36,000 job loss and a 0.2% jump in the unemployment rate to 5.6%), but the AUSSIE DOLLAR rallied after an initial selloff as Japanese investors are seeking higher returns. A favorite place for higher yields for Japanese seekers has been Australia and New Zealand. Many financial institutions offer what are known as Urudashi and Samurai bonds. These are bonds issued in Japan in foreign currency of usually kiwi and Aussie. Those who say that the Japanese don’t invest afar and remain in Japan–what is called HOME BIAS–are badly misinformed.

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Notes From Underground: The G-20 Communique … YADA,YADA,YADA … What Currency Wars?

February 18, 2013

As expected, the G-20 communique was more insipid blathering about global growth, BIS capital regulation and the enactment of some new macroprudential regulations to ensure global financial tranquility. To reflect on the lack of consistency in this communique, let me quote from point 20: “We welcome the OECD report on addressing base erosion and profit shifting and acknowledge that an important part of fiscal sustainability is securing our revenue bases.” This is pure nonsense for it reflects the great divide that exists between the old line powers of the G-7 and the more broad-based and emerging economies found within the structure of the G-20.The old line (developed) economies want to preserve their tax bases so as to have enough revenue to maintain previous promises of retirement and pension programs for their aging populations.

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Notes From Underground: Mario Monti Is No General Sherman

December 23, 2012

Over the weekend Mario Monti decided not to run for the Prime Minister position through joining any party’s list for the election to be held in February. Mr. Monti was never elected to his present position but was parachuted into the job by the Eurocrats in Brussels. It seems that PM Monti fears facing the electorate as so many Italians are angered by the slash-and-burn techniques of the supreme technocrat–both left and right have criticized the present Monti government. Monti resigned after Silvio Berlusconi pulled his support from the Monti regime, but now it appears that Berlusconi would renew his support for a Monti-led coalition. The dramatic fall in bond and stock prices following Monti’s resignation caught the attention of the monied groups in Italy.

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Notes From Underground: The DREADS of the Redemption Song

December 19, 2012

It was only a year ago that the PRECIOUS METALS were laboring under the continued selling of GOLD and SILVER as the John Paulson hedge funds were liquidating long positions to meet the huge amount of redemptions by long-time investors exiting the decade’s best performing FUNDS. In a repeat, Morgan Stanley announced today that it was redeeming its investors out of Paulson’s two largest funds after another year of questionable performance. In today’s world where one hedge fund can hold massive positions, divestment by disgruntled investors can initiate massive corrections. In 1980, when the Hunt Brothers caused great turmoil in the silver markets, they had a mere BILLION DOLLARS to play with (the Paulson funds control close to $15 billion under management.) As traders and investors it’s our job to be cognizant of all the animals in the jungle. When the elephants retrace their steps from the watering hole, small animals can get crushed (Niederhoffer).

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Notes From Underground: Shinzo Abe to the American People … Now This Is A Mandate

December 16, 2012

The Japanese LDP and its partner the New Komeito Party have seemingly captured more than the 320 seats needed to override the upper-house on most legislation. The two-thirds majority garnered by the ABE COALITION will give the LDP enough power to put pressure on the BOJ to attempt an effort to end the deflation that has encumbered the Japanese economy. The campaign issues promoted by the victorious coalition should lead to further weakening of the YEN although we may see a bout of profit taking as the rumor has become fact. Mr. Abe had promoted the ending of BOJ independence but it is doubtful that promise will be realized. The overall response to the end of central bank independence may unleash a response bigger than the LDP will want to confront. The global financial world have become very supportive of central banks being independent of government control and it seems more likely that PM Abe can influence policy in other ways.

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Notes From Underground: The FED Goes From Quantitative to Qualitative … You Do the Math

December 13, 2012

Well, the famed modeler from M.I.T. has finally admitted that he has been an avid reader of Notes From Underground and in the world of global macro finance, 2+2=5. The FOMC statement was a surrender to the work of Michael Woodford as was pre-released in a Janet Yellen speech a few weeks ago. The FED will give great credence to a 6.5% unemployment and a 2% inflation threshold, give or take a 0.5%  discretionary prerogative. The 6.5% unemployment threshold is also subject to FED discretion for it seems to depend on whether or not the labor participation rate is increasing while the unemployment rate declines.

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