Last Wednesday, ECB President Mario Draghi warned the traders and investors in sovereign debt and other credit markets that great volatility would be the cornerstone of activity and the market would have to learn to deal with it. The problem with this scenario is, I believe, that the ECB is the progenitor of most of the violent price movement. Remember, the ECB QE program means that the Frankfurt bank has a great deal of fire power to move markets–to the tune of 60 billion euros ($72 billion) a month, which was close to what the FED was purchasing at the height of its QE program. Traders and investors have no heads-up as to when the ECB will be buying and therefore subject to being stopped out of trades at any time.
Posts Tagged ‘central bank’
Notes From Underground: Policy Should Set Stock Prices. Imagine That
December 27, 2012The ideas CNBC is spreading about the FISCAL CLIFF is just absurd. The addiction to higher stock prices has meant that a failure to get the equity market to rally due to falling off the “CLIFF” prevents quality policy from being attained. Going over the “CLIFF” will at least put spending front and center for we are all sure that taxes are going higher so the discussion must get to a genuine discussion about spending, and yes, that means serious cuts in the bloated defense sector. The FED‘s policy means that monetary policy will support the economy into the medium term and alleviate some of the pain from government spending cuts. It’s not drastic austerity but a realistic plan for dealing with rampant profligacy.
Notes From Underground: Examining the Theoretical Premise of Notes From Underground
March 6, 2012ABSTRACT: A theoretical view of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND is that the initial action of a flattening yield curve is BULLISH, or, most importantly, not BEARISH for a developed market currency for it signifies that a CENTRAL BANK is ahead of the inflation curve and thus, is given confidence by BOND BUYERS. The corollary to this premise is that flattening curves and certainly inverted curves are a BEARISH INDICATOR FOR EQUITY MARKETS. In a RISK ON/RISK OFF algo environment, the market continually reflects this, especially as we saw today. However, day-to-day trading strategies are certainly not the major test of the theory. A reader of the BLOG commented on Sunday’s post that the opposite view was what he believed. Again, theories are to be tested for trading like good science “ADVANCES ONE FUNERAL AT A TIME.” (Max Planck).
Notes From Underground: 40 YEARS AGO TODAY NIXON CLOSED THE GOLD WINDOW BUT OPENED UP THE FIAT MONEY GUSHER
August 15, 2011Yes, 40 years ago that miscreant Machiavellian, Richard Nixon, took the U.S. off the GOLD EXCHANGE STANDARD and later in the year supposedly proclaimed that we are “ALL KEYNESIANS NOW.” Nixon learned that a fiat-based currency with a compliant CENTRAL BANK can create enough liquidity to promote short-term economic growth. The supposed conservative PRESIDENT forgot the element of Keynes that proscribed acting in an anti-cyclical fashion by running budget surpluses during economic growth times. Once Nixon could pressure Arthur Burns to roll the presses, getting CONGRESS to deficit spend for any purpose was an easy task.
Notes From Underground: Inflation sets on the BRITISH empire
February 15, 2011The inflation data released by the U.K. showed that CPI has increased to 4 percent. The largest price increase was in INK costs as Mervyn King had to pen another letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining the price increases maintained during the BOE’s inflation-mandated levels. King has placed himself in a difficult position as he has held rates steady in the face of rising inflation. Governor King’s stance is the same as Bernanke’s. The rise in prices are due to elements that the CENTRAL BANK cannot effect and the inflationary impact is acting as a drag on the consumer. Why ?