We at Notes From Underground haven’t been publishing as frequently but we have been working more intensively than ever. The global financial situation is fraught with many areas of potential hazards to shock the established complacencies of current equity market rallies.
Posts Tagged ‘Swiss Franc’
Notes From Underground: So Many Piles of Dry Tinder
July 17, 2023Notes From Underground: We’re Back?
August 1, 2022It has been quite an extended period since my last post, but now I’m trying to catch up on some reading and relevant research on all things pertinent to GLOBAL MACRO. Following the FEDERAL RESERVE’S INTEREST RATE DECISION and the POWELL PRESS CONFERENCE, I sat down with Richard Bonugli, Peter Boockvar and Daniel Lacalle. This 66-minute podcast is packed with several pertinent topics, including yield curves, the dollar, Europe and even ESG investments. Please enjoy and I await your feedback and hopefully disagreements. Only the parochialist in echo chambers pursue validation.
Notes From Underground: Never Have Been and Never Will Be
December 21, 2020… a supporter of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. In my opinion, he’s another Wall Street hack devoid of any genuine knowledge of the global macro world in which he his sent to do battle on a daily basis. Last week’s decision to label Vietnam and Switzerland as “currency manipulators” is badly timed, badly chosen and badly misinformed. Why would you name Vietnam a currency manipulator when a large part of the Trump administration’s policy is directed toward relocating global supply chains away from China. In addition, labelling Vietnam a “currency manipulator “is an immoral and unconscionable act. Even Bob McNamara is spinning on his “rotisserie in hell.”
Notes From Underground: The Darkness of Foreign Exchange
December 10, 2020There were two central bank meetings in the past two days: The Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. The BOC stayed its current course with no change in policy. Several analysts were looking for more dovish action because of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar but the BOC was wise in noting that a “broad-based decline” in the U.S. exchange rate has contributed to a “further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.” As a result, the BOC has ZERO concerns about its currency appreciating as long as it is BROAD-BASED.
Notes From Undergound: Marc Faber, Wow
October 13, 2020It is a pleasure to have sat down with the paradigm of global macro, Dr. Marc Faber. We, alongside Richard Bonugli, talked commodities, currencies and bond markets. Enjoy the podcast and make it a double of your favorite libation. No, it’s not doom and gloom. It’s insights into the current global financial situation presented with potential investment opportunities.
But first, let’s review a few things:
Notes From Underground: SNB, Paradigm or Pariah?
May 4, 2020Question: Why does the Swiss National Bank become an important topic for discussion?
Answer: Since Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” and “no taboos” comments in 2012 about saving the euro. The SNB has been in a defensive position of trying to prevent a dramatic appreciation of the FRANC as the SWISS acts as a haven for Europeans. The geographic location provides for what economists refer to as home basis.
Notes From Underground: The Jobs Picture Is Robust, But Where Is the Wage Increase?
December 8, 2019This is a rhetorical question of course, for the lack of wage growth is to be found in the vast amount of money chasing a global labor pool.
It is capital that had benefited from the last 30 years of the unleashing workers after the fall of the Soviet Empire and the black/white cat policies of Deng in pursuing growth in China. Now that other emerging economies are attracting capital in an effort to create jobs, there still remains a great deal of downward pressure on wages. Even the movement of supply chains out of China will act as a drag on global earnings as manufacturers will act to hold down wages as way of remaining attractive to foreign direct investment. The world has been watching as Chinese earnings growth has accelerated over the last 10 years but one of the outcomes from the Trump tariffs will be to force a slowdown in China’s wage inflation.
Notes From Underground: Was Trump Addressing Mnuchin or Powell?
November 19, 2019On Monday, Treasury Secretary Steven Muchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with President Trump at the White House where the duo “advised” and “forecasted” the economy to the president as 2020 election posturing is in full swing. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has maintained that Trump used the tariff threat to cajole Jerome Powell into lowering interest rates, weaken the DOLLAR and end the balance sheet runoff that the administration believed has held back the U.S. economy. What was Powell buying insurance against?
Notes From Underground: “Where Did I Find This Guy Jerome?”
September 8, 2019Of all the U.S. president’s tweets (and believe he has a lot), Friday’s tweet about Federal Reserve Chairman was one of the best. Unfortunately, there probably should’ve been a comma between “guy” and “Jerome” since one could ask the question about any member of Trump’s economic team. President Trump could be asking the Fed chairman about Secretary Steven Mnuchin, or Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and certainly of Larry Kudlow or Peter Navarro. NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND has been asking that for many months. In my opinion, the only Trump pick that inspires confidence is Robert Lighthizer.
Notes From Underground: Trump Has Weaponized The Dollar. Do the Longs Know?
June 12, 2019Some shots were fired last Friday, but it seems that the markets can only hear the siren song of White House tweets. There was an important story from Bloomberg reporter Saleha Mohsin titled, “Trump’s Currency War Plan Puts Treasury and Commerce at Odds.” The article noted that “a Commerce Department proposal to impose countervailing tariffs on countries that it determines have devalued their currencies has alarmed officials at the Treasury Department.”
It appears that President Trump has grown frustrated by Treasury’s failure to name any country as a “currency manipulator.” It has been Treasury’s bailiwick to monitor the foreign exchange interventions of countries who strive to artificially hold down the value of their currencies in an effort gain a competitive advantage versus any G20 country, especially the U.S. (from the Treasury Department perspective).