Posts Tagged ‘currencies’

Notes From Underground: In An Algo-Driven World Headlines Matter

December 3, 2017

Friday: Dateline. INACCURATE NEWS.

There is GOLD to be found in the digital world where headlines can move financial markets faster than your eyes can blink or your brain can separate fact from fiction. ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross published a report that said President Trump asked Michael Flynn to reach out to Russia during the campaign. The network was forced to correct the story, clarifying that the request was carried out during the transition period, and suspended Ross. President Trump tweeted that investors harmed by ABC’s action should sue for damages. Trump may actually have a legitimate opinion but I believe the President’s Tweets carry the same litmus test.

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Notes From Underground: The Fed Meets Market Expectations … So How Was It Unanimous?

December 16, 2015

In the Beatles Album “Let It Be” John Lennon introduces the phrase, “Doris Gets Her Oats.” It’s supposedly just typical Lennon gibberish. But in a nod to the Beatles, Janet Yellen got her oats and the Fed did not LET IT BE. The “oats” that Janet got was that the FED increased its interest on excess reserves (IOER) to 50 basis points and overnight reverse repo (O/N RRP) rate to 25 basis points in order to pull the fed funds into the corridor. The most astounding outcome was that FOMC vote was unanimous, 10-0. With the recent über-dovish comments from Fed Governors Brainard and Tarullo, how could they have voted with the Fed Chair? Some commentators remarked that the “historic” occasion of Yellen presiding over the first Fed hike in almost nine years needed a unanimous vote. Question: What did Chair Yellen have to promise the über-doves in order to garner their votes and suffer the wrath of the Shadow Fed Chairman, Larry Summers? This will be an important question going forward for it may mean that Yellen may have compromised herself to lower for longer.

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Notes From Underground: Bill Dudley refills the PUNCHBOWL (or why New York bankers shouldn’t Head the NY FED)

April 3, 2011

All was right with the markets as the unemployment data was released and for one of the few times in recent memory, the Wall Street analysts, ADP and others were right on target. Private sector job growth continued to improve, and the state and local governments were continuing layoffs to try to balance its budgets. The softest part of the employment data was the average hourly earnings, which were FLAT. This implies that employers are under no stress to lift wages with the unemployment rate at 8.8 percent. The markets took the data in stride as the DOLLAR was rallying on the positive data. With the previous day’s comments from various FED presidents, there appeared some need to lift some of the SHORT DOLLAR positions. The short-end of the yield curve was under pressure, aiding the DOLLAR RALLY and the selloff in the precious METALS. The equities seemed to be basking in the perfect storm for no WAGE GAINS, a mere threat of 1 percent FED FUNDS with an improving JOBS PICTURE doesn’t get any better for the EQUITIES.

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Notes From Underground: The markets will labor with the unemployment report

January 6, 2011

Let me state out again as to why the FOREX markets are going to be a difficult investment in 2011. The emerging markets and commodity-based currencies have been the repositories of global capital seeking to take advantage of the Chinese and India growth phenomena without having to actually invest in the countries themselves. If you like China, buy the Australian equity or currency as it provides a proxy on Beijing’s growth policies: A classic case of providing picks and shovels rather than mining yourself.

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