Posts Tagged ‘reverse repo facility’

Notes From Underground: If Everybody Is Talking Who Is Listening

May 20, 2014

Presented with comment:

 

The First Economist

Yesterday, the airwaves were filled with global financial speakers singing from the hymnal of disinflation. His eminence, MR. 250 GRAND, was wowing the private speakers circuit with his opinion on stock market valuations and economic growth. Mr. Bernanke, please do not follow in the footsteps of Sir Alan Greenspan, who in his post-chairman life proved that he had very little understanding of the economy he was trying control. Only in the world of access journalism do the anointed powers pretend to be all-knowing oracles. As Bernanke hits the lecture circuit and speaks freely without the Fed backdrop it puts the current Fed Chair Janet Yellen into a very difficult position.T he media is in search of a story and a hero to worship, which propagates the idea of Fed decisions being based on rocket science with Fed policy a certainty. Again, theory and practice (praxis) do not produce hard facts in the world economics. In further support of the Fed’s “uncertainty principle,” yesterday the Wall Street Journal ran a Jon Hilsenrath interview with Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. The interview is based on the operational techniques the Fed plans to utilize to “Raise Short-Term Interest Rates.”

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Notes From Underground: Others Mine Bitcoin; We Mine FOMC Minutes

January 8, 2014

The eagerly awaited release of the FOMC minutes revealed little, but two potential nuggets were uncovered and we will watch to see if they turn into valuable assets. The first was the discussion of the FIXED-RATE, FULL-ALLOTMENT OVERNIGHT REVERSE REPURCHASE AGREEMENT (also known as the O/N RRP). This is a very sophisticated monetary tool that the Fed hopes to utilize to resolve the “FORWARD PROBLEM” of excess reserves in the banking system. The System Open Market Account (SOMA) has been testing the O/N RPP since September to ensure that SOMA can handle the use of the facility as an active tool of policy, possibly utilizing it as the workhorse of the issue of EXCESS RESERVES after the massive Fed QE programs. In quoting from the text: “The proposed increase in caps was intended to test the Desk’s ability to manage somewhat larger operational flows and to provide additional information about the potential usefulness of O/N RPP operations to affect market interest rates when doing so becomes appropriate.” This is an issue that will prove market moving on a regular basis as the operational flows grow in size. (I will cover this in-depth in another piece).

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Notes From Underground: One More Issue Resolved … Chancellor Merkel Prevails

September 23, 2013

The German election results were pretty much as polls predicted, although the CDU/CSU party of Angela Merkel ran stronger than polls suggested and the FDP, Merkel’s present coalition partner ran similar to last week’s Bavarian State votes, and is forced out of government as it failed to reach the necessary 5% threshold. The FDP failed to receive as many votes as the UPSTART Alternative for Germany (AfD), which just missed the 5% criterion and thus will have no votes in the Parliament. Chancellor Merkel has not yet formed a governing coalition as she still needs five votes to secure a parliamentary majority. The EURO performed in a very stable fashion as the news reflected the status quo. The market is still busy digesting the news from the FED‘s non-tapering announcement, which has put more turmoil than stability into the financial markets. The U.S. equity markets, using the S&Ps as my measure, closed below the low made on September 17 before the FOMC surprise statement. (NOTE: I am using a continuation chart for this picture). The FED‘s “Wednesday Surprise” has left the market wondering what the FED sees that kept it from beginning a tapering of its LARGE SCALE ASSET PURCHASES, or QE by another name. It may well be that the FED doesn’t see any problems but just being cautious in response to recent weaker data.

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