At the end of 2017, my readers may recall that I did an unusual thing. I made a prognostication as where the 10-year yield will end the year. I said the 10-year would end the year at 3.41 percent, to which a friend offered up a bottle of Pappy Van Winkle bourbon if the rate reached that level. (The yield was 2.60 percent at the time.) Well, I’m throwing in the towel as it looks like 3.26 percent looks to be the top for the year. I guess I will have to enjoy a lesser-quality libation.
Posts Tagged ‘Yuan’
Notes From Underground: Bye, Bye Pappy Van Winkle
December 6, 2018Notes From Underground: Depending On the Outcome of Rational Actors?
August 19, 2018So much of social science is dependent on various actors making rational decisions. Economics has regularly proven that “actors” certainly fail to act rationally as manias, crashes and panics in repeated form are proof (see Charles Kindleberger). In the realm of politics, the dependence on nation-states to behave rationally has led to many major policy errors. During the Cold War the balance of nuclear weapons prompted both super powers to remain reticent to embark on direct confrontations and avoid an unthinkable shooting war. The fear of world destruction also meant that the USSR and UNITED STATES would leash their “allies” to prevent any direct conflict between the two major hegemonists.
Notes From Underground: In Light of Declining Volume and Volatility … A Repost
August 7, 2018The markets remain locked into the latest tweet from either politicians or CEOs. Whether it’s about tariffs or taking a company private, the Twittersphere has the ability to move markets for a nanosecond. Regardless of the algos and the continued march of passive investing NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND believes that Hyman Minsky has entered the room. A Minsky moment occurs when complacency leads to increased risk-taking while using increasing leverage. It is not market valuations that disrupts markets but rather the amount of debt that needs to be serviced. Can future cash flows ensure that the vast amount of debt can be managed? Leverage is a great aphrodisiac but if priapism results the exit strategy can elicit great pain. The markets are built on record debt.
Notes From Underground: Riding High in April
April 25, 2018In building on the discussions in Tuesday’s POST it is important to note that the debt discussion that has taken place in Notes From Underground is gaining traction as an important piece of the financial narrative. The failure of the SPOOS, NASDAQ, and DOW to gain traction with the robust earning releases is forcing the perplexed to confront the impact and collateral damage from Ben Bernanke’s Portfolio Balance Channel, also known as QE or large-scale asset purchases.
Notes From Underground: The Second Quarter Begins (the Resurrection of Volatility)
April 1, 2018On March 26, me and Rick Santelli Rick Santelli discussed a few key issues on CNBC (the video is posted below). The final week of the first quarter saw the continuation of increased volatility as the market tried to sort through myriad issues. The influence of budget deficits, peace talks with North Korea, trade issues in the U.S. all creating a sense of uncertainty as global investors are forced to calibrate present positions in regards to regards to potential risk. Chinese growth is meeting expectations even as the XI regime is determined to clamp down on increased debt. The copper market tested the 200-day moving average early in the week but managed to close above it at week’s (even as the metal had a weak quarter).
(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss global trade.)
Notes From Underground: Be Very Afraid Of Jerome Powell and His Printing Press
October 3, 2017Over the past 15 months, I have made light of Fed Governor Jerome (Jay) Powell because of his answer to a question I had asked him at a symposium presented by the Chicago Global Initiative. I asked Governor Powell, “Who guarantees the balance sheet of the ECB?” Without hesitating, Powell said, “THEY HAVE A PRINTING PRESS.” If this is his answer to issues of debt overhang I will be closely watching the precious metals if Powell actually became Fed Chairman. Janet Yellen has proven far more competent than Jerome Powell would be under any top of stressful central bank situation.
Notes From Underground: Alfred E. Neuman or Arthur Fonzarelli? Pick Your Poison
June 9, 2016Since I’m 62 years old, my references of social icons goes back to a more simple time. Alfred E. Neuman of Mad Magazine fame would ask, “What, Me Worry?” The other side of the equation would be Arthur Fonzarelli from the television show, “Happy Days.” who would stutter before ever admitting that he was WRONG. The world’s central banks are a reflection of these two icons. It seems that Yellen, Draghi and Kuroda all suffer from both views. They have nothing to worry about and they certainly cannot admit to being wrong. The central banks are under attack from investors and traders for pursuing quantitative easing and negative yields even though the efficacy of such programs is certainly in doubt.
Notes From Underground: Wrigley Field and the Unemployment Data = 38,000 Filled Seats
June 5, 2016Being a life-long CUBS fan it is with a sense of irony to note that the nonfarm payroll number almost equaled Friday’s attendance at Wrigley Field. I will venture to guess though that the cheers from the FOMC were louder than all of the voices cheering the CUBS onto victory. Janet Yellen and her insider clique on the FOMC cheered as the softness in the JOBS data provided the rationale for the FOMC not to raise interest rate before the BREXIT vote. Everyone in the financial world knows that the FED is “data dependent” … at least when it fits their needs. Yes, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.7% from 5.0% but this substantial fall calls into question the credibility of the Fed models. The drop in the rate was due to participants leaving the job force, and, more importantly, those departing the labor market are not at the retirement age level but more in the middle of the age timeline, which makes investors challenge the idea of the economy gaining strength.
Notes From Underground: After the Flood … Of Data
June 2, 2016It’s that time of the month: first Friday and the jobs data is front and center. Consensus is for 152,000 nonfarm payrolls. In my humble opinion it will take a number above 200,000 to put pressure on the FOMC to actually raise rates at its June meeting, or, more importantly, a headline jobless rate of 4.8%. As always, I am highlighting the AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS (AHE) as the most important number because it plays to Chair Yellen’s concern about 20 years of stagnant wages. The market is anticipating a tepid rate of 0.2% following April’s gain of 0.3%. A flat wage number would keep the FOMC on hold.
Notes From Underground: Santelli Exchange — The Fed’s Models Are Broken
February 1, 2016
Watch me and Rick discuss why gold isn’t a hedge against inflation,
but against central banks losing control “of the whole game.”