Posts Tagged ‘jobs’

Notes From Underground: Fed Creates Jobs by Printing `Data Dependent’ T-Shirts

May 11, 2015

Today, CNBC‘s Steve Liesman interviewed San Fran Fed President John Williams. In a swipe at Fed gallows humor, President Williams presented Liesman with a T-Shirt that said the Fed was DATA DEPENDENT. The humor part was Williams’s effort to cut-off Steve Liesman’s well choreographed question which amounts to: “Come on, John, share your inside view about the possibility of a RATE RISE at the next FOMC meeting (just between us, John).” So as to make sure that Liesman understands the consistent answer: It is data dependent. If the FED wants to create some jobs it can send everyone with a bank account a free “Data Dependent” shirt, compliments of their regional Federal Reserve. All sarcasm aside, President Williams’s view puts added importance now to the inflation data on Friday and of course the retail sales input on Wednesday. The consensus on the CORE RETAIL SALES is 0.3% increase so a strong number would be above 0.6%. If the theory of data dependence holds then it should be the SHORT END of the curve that gets sold and here is my reasoning: The 2/10 and 5/30 parts of the yield curve have steepened dramatically during the last two months as the market accepts the fact that the recent bout of weak economic data has pushed the FED further away from raising rates.

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Notes From Underground: Is This a One-Act Play or Will There Be More Theatrics?

November 30, 2011

Today was the day the world’s major central banks decided to “shock” the markets and provide a coordinated intervention to help ease the pressure in the Global bank lending markets. LED BY THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE, the OVERNIGHT INDEXED SWAP +100 WAS LOWERED BY THE FED AND OTHERS TO +50 POINTS, AS WELL AS THE MARGIN REQUIRED FOR ECB LENDING TO BANKS WAS DROPPED TO 12% FROM 20%. This is a technical move by the world’s banks to try to ease the pressure in the interbank lending market. I believe this is the first act in a concerted attempt to shift market psychology.

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Notes From Underground: The World Awaits the State of the Union but it is Sarkozy in Search of A Balcony

January 24, 2011

First and foremost: My thoughts and prayers go out to  the Russian people as the nihilistic elements of global terrorism crafted its senseless actions on the Moscow Airport. It is not my bullish view on Russia that provokes my thoughts, but rather the ugliness of NIHILISM. Random terrorist acts are to be opposed wherever and whenever they raise its spectre of wanton destructiveness. The Russians will of course respond with a heavy hand for Putin et al care very little about public relations. Brutality will beget brutality. Political expediency will trump all rationality for  neither Medvedev nor Putin will want to be perceived as weak in the eyes of a resurgent nationalistic populace.

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Notes From Underground: The markets will labor with the unemployment report

January 6, 2011

Let me state out again as to why the FOREX markets are going to be a difficult investment in 2011. The emerging markets and commodity-based currencies have been the repositories of global capital seeking to take advantage of the Chinese and India growth phenomena without having to actually invest in the countries themselves. If you like China, buy the Australian equity or currency as it provides a proxy on Beijing’s growth policies: A classic case of providing picks and shovels rather than mining yourself.

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Notes From Underground: risk on risk off … and so it goes; and so it goes

June 3, 2010

We were back in form today as the risk on profile was back on. The EUR/YEN was well-bid as risk was the theme, but we want to watch the YEN to see if the correlation of YEN as the risk barometer is beginning to breakdown with the present political developements in Tokyo taking its toll. The S&PS Wednesday put on a significant rally to solidify the risk on profile.

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