Posts Tagged ‘President Trump’

Notes From Underground: In An Algo-Driven World Headlines Matter

December 3, 2017

Friday: Dateline. INACCURATE NEWS.

There is GOLD to be found in the digital world where headlines can move financial markets faster than your eyes can blink or your brain can separate fact from fiction. ABC investigative journalist Brian Ross published a report that said President Trump asked Michael Flynn to reach out to Russia during the campaign. The network was forced to correct the story, clarifying that the request was carried out during the transition period, and suspended Ross. President Trump tweeted that investors harmed by ABC’s action should sue for damages. Trump may actually have a legitimate opinion but I believe the President’s Tweets carry the same litmus test.

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Notes From Underground: Him Or Me, What’s It Gonna Be?

October 24, 2017

President Trump is the ultimate drama queen. The president is drawing out his FED selection as he titillates the markets with the drips and drabs as to who is the most probable choice. Here is my best guess: Because this president reminds the nation how great he is doing using the stock markets as the barometer it would follow that his choice would be the best one for keeping equity prices elevated. Kevin Warsh and John Taylor would be a problem as the equity markets would become cautious for fear of short-term interest rates rising at a quicker pace. It seems that Jerome Powell and Janet Yellen would be the ones to sustain the current stock rally as they are known entities to the Wall street contingent. Of course the ultimate booster of all asset classes would be Neel Kashkari, the latest dissenter to the previous rate increases in 2017.

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Notes From Underground: Some Areas Of Concern and Importance

October 16, 2017

As the tinder of prairie fires builds, these areas of concern are important because of the potential impact they can have on the market:

1. Sunday’s election results in Austria give rise to concerns about the rise of euroskeptic groups in several European nations. Yes, the anti-immigration sentiment appears to be the dominant variable in bringing a right-wing government to Vienna, but the sparks from xenophobia can manifest into an anti-ECB issue as domestic citizens are asked to foot the bill for bail-outs of Italian banks. Many citizens of various European states have borne the costs of bailing out Italy, Spain, Ireland, Greece and Cyprus through negative interest rates, the ultimate tool of financial repression. German two-year notes are currently -73 basis points, even though German inflation is approaching 1.7%, resulting in a real yield of NEGATIVE 2.5% for the savers in German-based banks. Regardless of what the ECB does in terms of quantitative tightening President Draghi has maintained that negative rates will remain lower for longer. Financial repression will be the next theme for the European right.

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Notes From Underground: Happy Memorial Day, A New Podcast from FRA

May 29, 2017

I am posting a new FRA podcast that was recorded May 24 with Richard Bonugli. We cover many important topics, including the rise of Bitcoin as an investable product. As I have said often, I need to learn more about crypto-currencies and their impact on the global financial system. Unlike Ben Bernanke, I understand GOLD but am seeking to understand BITCOINS. I am striving to learn the workings of the block chain mechanism and relying on the wisdom of one of favorite readers and supporters American Limey.

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Notes From Underground: After the FOMC, Do Payrolls Mean Anything?

February 2, 2017

This week has presented us with THREE central bank meetings. The results of the BOJ, FED and BOE meetings were no change to the current policies. So, with inflation on the rise and equity markets close to all-time highs for the U.S. and multi-year highs for Europe, the overseers of credit feel no need to tighten monetary conditions. Chair Yellen and her fellow decision makers are evidently comfortable that the wheels of legislation grind slowly and will wait until there is some evidence of fiscal stimulus and tax reform before applying the brakes to a possibly overstimulated economy. The BOJ was cautious ahead of Prime Minister Abe’s meeting with President Trump. To understand the domestic politics of Abe’s possible bilateral deal with the U.S. I am linking to an article from the Asian edition of the Wall Street Journal by Tobias Harris (my progeny).

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Notes From Underground: Another FRA Podcast

January 29, 2017

Tonight I am posting the latest episode from the Financial Repression Authority (click on the blue link to listen). I do these for no remuneration as I think the information flowing out of this group creates great conversation and can generate some very profitable investment opportunities. Yes, it’s 34 minutes long but it is more LEARNATIVE than the network news. So pour a stiff whisky and listen while doing other reading. I share this with, you readers because I am honored to be a part of this great dialectical process. One of the key points in tonight’s post is the development of a narrative in which to analyze the world of Trump. It is not a partisan narrative but one I am developing as I attempt to discern the unfolding global dialogue being put forward by Team Trump.

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