Posts Tagged ‘French elections’

Notes From Underground: Santelli and Harris Down By the Schoolyard

May 9, 2017

This is the most recent CNBC hit with Rick Santelli as we try to educate the world in another three-minute segment. This unrehearsed spot attempts to dig deep into the financial issues confronting traders and investors. The discussion about France is a continuation from the Notes From Underground post I wrote last night. I stress that the period ahead for Emmanuel Macron is going to be difficult, especially if the center-right wins the Parliament and thus the prime minister position. This summer will be fraught with street demonstrations as the Left moves to prevent any installation of German-initiated fiscal austerity and labor market reform. In typical French political fashion, labor and student groups are warning against Macron governing by decree and bypassing Parliament.

(Click on the image to watch me and Rick discuss French elections.)

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Notes From Underground: April Showers Bring May Unemployment

May 3, 2012

As everybody reading and/or listening to financial news all week knows, tomorrow at 7:30 a.m. CST the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the unemployment report, which has been deemed as the most important data since …….????? The consensus is now for a nonfarm payroll increase of 170,000, the RATE TO STAY AT 8.2% and average hourly earnings to increase 0.2%. After Wednesday’s ADP data, the market has lowered its NFP expectations and thus, a consensus number of 170,000 will be a positive for the EQUITY markets, positive for the DOLLAR and meaningless for the BONDS.

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Notes From Underground: No Box Can Contain These Thoughts

April 30, 2012
First let’s dispense with the market data:
1. Tonight at 11:30 p.m. CST the RBA will announce its interest rate decision. The market consensus is for a rate CUT of 25 BASIS POINTS  from 4% from 4.25%. There are a few analysts looking for a 1/2% CUT and from looking at the near term curve inversion that is not a far-fetched concept. The overnight/2-year curve is inverted by 125 BASIS POINTS so a larger cut would help correct this inversion. (Not a bad idea for an economy that is slowing and the Aussie Treasurer has made known his desire for raising taxes to help repair the BUDGET DEFICIT that has arisen during the last four years. An anticipated 25 basis point cut be market neutral while a 50 basis point cut would lead to an immediate selloff of the Aussie dollar. More important will be the RBA‘s STATEMENT as our readers know that Governor Stevens is a very astute analyst of the GLOBAL ECONOMY, so listen for any mention of an AUSSIE FEAR OF A SLOWDOWN IN CHINA.
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Notes From Underground: Europe Is Back to Center Stage … It’s the Crisis That Never Sleeps

April 11, 2012

This week has again seen the resurrection of the European debt crisis as the world pays close attention to BOND prices in EURO BONDS. Yesterday saw the German Schatz fall to an all-time-low of 9 BASIS POINTS. Today as some calm was restored to the Spanish and Italian debt markets, the yield on the German 2-YEAR increased to 14 BASIS POINTS. Prompting the rally in the PERIPHERAL DEBT PRICES was a comment by ECB Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure.

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Notes From Underground: UPON FURTHER REVIEW OF THE FOMC MINUTES …. HMMM

April 3, 2012

Today’s release of the FOMC minutes caused a market rethink about QE and it seems that the RALLY IN THE DOLLAR, SELLOFF IN PRECIOUS METALS AND FIXED INCOME MARKET means the market believes that the FED will restrain itself from another massive liquidity injection. The EQUITY market initially sold off by regained almost all of its losses by the close (NASDAQ ACTUALLY CLOSED HIGHER) as the STOCKS remain convinced that the FED WILL KEEP ZIRP FOR THE FULL EXTENDED PERIOD.

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Notes From Underground: OPA! Time to Drink Some Ouzo and Reflect on the Greek Situation

February 13, 2012

Europe was/is/will be the catalyst for the markets, from equities and commodities to, of course, currencies. Whether the problems are violent strikes in Athens or insolvent banks in France and Spain, the issues that PLAGUE EUROPE ARE EXISTENTIAL IN NATURE. Can the problems of sovereign default and the deflationary impact rippling from a massive deleveraging be contained by a massive douse of LTRO or QE3 in the U.S.? For now the markets are CONTENT to allow the flood of liquidity be the potion for increased portfolio risk.

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