Well, the apocalypse has fallen upon the financial markets much as we have discussed at NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND on February 2. The onset of the DEMAND SHOCK has unleashed the fears of a deflationary spiral. My readers have been WAY AHEAD of the CNBC crowd in analyzing the potential outcomes and predicting quality trades as the PANIC IN NEEDLE PARK fostered by the central banks was/is beginning to unfold. Any person who thinks any economic release has market value raise your hand but keep it six feet away as you are likely contagious.
Posts Tagged ‘Gold’
Notes From Underground: The Exciting Game Without Any Rules
March 24, 2020Notes From Underground: My Fantasy News, “China Swaps U.S. Treasuries For Fort Knox”
March 22, 2020This headline would have seemed ridiculous eight weeks ago but today it has great relevance. If I ran the PBOC (or rather had the totalitarian impulses of President Xi), the command from above would be trade in the overvalued U.S. debt instruments for a 3,000-year vehicle that’s a reliable store of VALUE. The world’s central banks have confirmed a central theme of NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND: It is not inflation they fear but the onset of a DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL.
Notes From Underground: A Microscopic Germ Packs a Wallop
March 2, 2020There is no doubt little organisms can wreak havoc in ways that blowhards could never imagine. People are trying to assess the financial impact by looking at previous pandemics. This is flawed analysis because each pandemic is different depending on the global circumstances and the morass for incubation. During the Cold War people did not move freely so political containment acted as a drag on the spread of disease.
Notes From Underground: A New Form of Asian Contagion
February 23, 2020On July 2, 1997 the Thai baht entered crisis mode, kicking off what become known as 18 months of Asian Contagion. The so-called Asian Tigers experienced massive capital disruptions as the Chinese economic miracle undermined the capital expenditure projects that were creating the manufacturing capacity to lift the TIGERS out of poverty and into significance in the global supply chain. The emerging markets learned that as fast as capital flows in to support foreign direct investment it can hurriedly depart as it seeks alternative venues with a better competitive advantage .
Notes From Underground: And the Concerns Continue
February 18, 2020On Tuesday global equities were down a very modest amount. The U.S. DOLLAR continued it move higher as the growth story and positive nominal yields is enough to push global investors into the U.S., the center of complacency. Commodity prices started off weak but OIL, grains and even COPPER found some buyers.
Notes From Underground: Do You Hear What I Hear?
February 16, 2020First, the news on the coronavirus continues to be buffeted by media outlets’ urge to be the first to report. The need for speed creates a rash of questionable stories that later get retracted or certainly get less sensational when context is added. When trading around this, I urge caution as opportunity knocks for those traders who can remain patient. There seems to be scientific interest in the failure of the VIRUS to have impacted children. While it is in the early stages of a potential pandemic, according to my source on all things infectious diseases, it is an outcome to watch in an effort to measure the potential impact.
Notes From Underground: Looking at 2020 With Imperfect Vision
January 9, 2020On Monday, I had a chat with Anthony Crudele about the global macro impact on markets in 2020. As I always warn (in an effort to mimic MAO), there are many potential prairie fires in the world that COULD be ignited by a single spark. The Middle East is a potential prairie fire — every year. We were reminded of this over the last week as multiple events in IRAQ/IRAN brought the world to the precipice of cataclysmic outcomes. For now, the situation seems to be contained as GOLD, sovereign bonds and other tools of wealth protection.
Notes From Underground: Whistling Past the Tombstones
December 29, 2019As we approach 2020, it seems as though the financial world is unconcerned about the dramatic increase in DEBT. Yes, the airwaves are alive with news of the extremely low level of mortgage delinquencies but fail to discuss the growing delinquency of 90-day auto loans and the $1.5 trillion pile of student loan debt, an albatross for college graduates over the 20 years. Corporate debt has increased by the magic of financial engineering in which share buybacks and dividend increases are greased with the benevolence of central banks caught in a trap of their design.
Notes From Underground: Same Old Song With a Different Beat
December 1, 2019There are few questions about the one-dimensional nature of the driving force of markets around the world. Cheap money sustains equity markets as the vast amounts of central bank liquidity continues to provide support for low-cost borrowing and a lack of alternatives for investors. A subset of the cheap cost of capital has been the “hoped” for resolution to the China/U.S. trade conflict which without question has disrupted global trade. South Korea’s recent economic performance is a reflection of the impact suffered by key components of the global supply chain driven export-oriented economy.
Notes From Underground: Walking Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death
September 22, 2019There is no question that the world’s central banks are all living under the shadow of doubt as investors and financial markets are questioning the efficacy of the zero lower bound. The sense of always doing more in an effort to attain a self-conjured 2% level of inflation has led to the continued downward slide in interest rates.
On this note, last week we saw the Powell Fed lower the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points — and its interest on excess reserves rate by 30 basis points — as congestion in the financial plumbing sent overnight rates soaring. (For those who are interested in the nuances, I am linking to one of many splendid pieces from Bloomberg reporters Liz McCormick and Alexandra Harris detailing out the repo market mess.)
