First of all, my offer of any part of a $10,000 bet with 10-1 odds against Jerome Powell being renominated as FED CHAIR is OFFICIALLY RESCINDED. The Fed Chair’s speech was so pathetic that it can only be explained by his desire to be renamed central bank head. Powell’s speech would be called DOVISH on any given week but there were six FED presidents speaking out in favor of moving up the schedule for tapering QE to counterpunch. It was not only the increased hawkish stances of previous UBER DOVES, which provided cover for Powell but the highly esteemed Mohammed El-Erian and Larry Summers also called for the FED Chair to be bold at Jackson Hole.
Posts Tagged ‘tapering’
Notes From Underground: Powell’s Pathetic Political Posturing
August 29, 2021Notes From Underground: For What It’s Worth
August 24, 2021There is a wonderful song from the tumultuous 1960s by the band Buffalo Springfield that is so apropos for the financial markets over the last two weeks (staying away from Kabul). The lyrics for the first two verses describe the situation for investors as we approach the tectonic plates of monetary policy that have provided the Kansas City Fed Symposium at Jackson Hole with its heightened significance. Several keynote speeches revealing policy changes have been delivered to this August group.
“There’s something happening here ,But what it is ain’t exactly clearthere’s a man with a printing press over there, telling me I got to beware“There’s battle lines being drawn,nobody’s right if everybody’s wrongYoung people speaking there minds,Getting so much resistance from behind”
Notes From Underground: Before I Break
August 15, 2021On Sunday, we acknowledge the 50-year anniversary of Richard Nixon’s decision to close the GOLD EXCHANGE WINDOW and put an end to the post-World War monetary system known as Bretton Woods. I can say exactly where I was: A bus station in Afula, Israel buying ice cream in dollars and the price rose as it was the day after the announcement. The proprietor told us prices increased because the dollar bought less. I truly had no idea but just remember that it happened in real time and proved not to be a transitory event. Much is being written about the anniversary and the implications for the global economy.T he Nixon strategy was summed up in his supposed statement of “We ARE ALL KEYNESIAN’S NOW.”
Notes From Underground: The Fed As G-30 Proxy?
August 1, 2021Last week’s FOMC meeting went as expected but the press conference actually provided some solid questions as the media put some pressure on Chair Jerome Powell. NPR actually received an answer to what TRANSITORY means to the Fed chair: Prices will stay but the process of inflation will stop or slow dramatically. Hmm, the continued use of the LUMBER and AUTO markets did not reflect that definition at all. It seemed that the authorities were pursuing the concept of roll back.
Notes From Underground: Wow Unto Chair Powell
July 27, 2021The previous blog post about President Lagarde painting the FEDERAL RESERVE into a corner OUGHT to be revealed tomorrow as there is expected to be no change in FED policy and I believe that Chair Jerome Powell will do his best to pose as dovish as possible. If there is a CHANGE it will be in the mix of the QE as the SOMA will be moved to cut MBS purchases and replace mortgages with longer-term treasuries.
Notes From Underground: Trade Complications (The Power of the Nation-State)
July 25, 2021That headline is courtesy of Whitewave Trading, an interactive chat room in which high-powered analysis for traders generates some great trades and uses NOTES FROM UNDERGROUND to add a fundamental view. Monday’s Whitwave has this advice: “When and if they ever taper, I’ll turn over the trading card.”
For those never on the trading floor this is in reference to going from the BLUE buy side to the RED sell side. In a follow up to last week’s blog post this makes perfect sense for as it seems that a critical indicator to an equity correction in the U.S. would begin with the FED actually moving to a real TAPERING or in Peter Boockvar’s words, A QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING.
Notes From Underground: A Take On Mario Draghi in Two Parts
September 10, 2017Part I: Mario Draghi, the master of obfuscation was at his best Thursday as he dodged MULTIPLE questions about the recent STRENGTH in the euro. Journalists were very well prepared and even threw back Draghi’s previous responses about how a 10 percent currency appreciation would lower inflation measures by 0.5 percent. But Draghi met each question with a, “Yes, we discussed it as some members of the ECB Board were concerned about the EURO and its impact on exports and import prices.”
Notes From Underground: It’s All About the Narrative
August 27, 2017The Kansas City Fed Symposium was steeped in boredom as all the hype failed to live up to the expectations of the media. The excitement centered around Mario Draghi potentially dropping hints about the beginning of quantitative tightening (QT). Rick Santelli spoke with former FOMC Governor Mark Olson, who rightfully predicted Chair Yellen would not reveal any sense of Fed intentions but he was dead wrong about Draghi. Olson opined that Yellen put the spotlight on President Draghi, but the ECB President must have suffered stage fright as he very bland when speaking to concerns about the Trump administration’s move to economic nationalism. There was not a single word about ECB policy.
Notes From Underground: The Significance of Mark Carney’s Mansion House Statement
June 16, 2014The FED meeting begins tomorrow and concludes Wednesday with a full-blown Janet Yellen press conference. The FOMC is expected to continue the path of TAPERING by removing another $10 BILLION of asset purchases but still continuing to add to its massive balance sheet. There is talk among the “pundits” about Chair Yellen raising the expectations of a FED move to increase interest rates sooner than the market predicts. Concern has grown because several FOMC members have raised the issue of higher REVERSE REPO and IOER (INTEREST ON EXCESS RESERVES) RATES in an effort to drain some of the vast amounts of liquidity sloshing around in the banking system.
Notes From Underground: Taper Impact on Emerging Markets (Santelli Exchange)
January 30, 2014
Click on the image to watch Rick Santelli and I discuss the selloff in emerging markets, as well as the U.S. government’s myRA plan.